CoastalWx
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Everything posted by CoastalWx
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Yeah, it doesn’t bother me. I know my climo and it stinks the first half of December anyways. But I do think some had high expectations. Hopefully second half of December delivers.
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But I feel like that’s partly induced by the troughing out west. That’s where my bootleg reference came from. If that was the residual block that retrograded to Hudson Bay while that upper level low was dumb-belling underneath, us I would feel a lot better. In any case, after about a week I’m hopeful that the Pacific gets better with still some ridging in Greenland. Fingers crossed for that.
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I think some do though lol. Anyways the weenie in me still wants something on the 12th, but that looks like a low chance unfortunately.
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Saying the next week kind of stinks, is also in no way of saying the season should be canceled. I feel like people are going off the deep end as usual.
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It’s been trouble on all guidance. King euro has been king nothing. Mettalica said it best.
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For the next week? No.
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The Pacific telling the block to take a hike. However, after whatever happens on the 13th, both sets of guidance get better out west so I think that has legs. Hopefully something comes out of that period around 13-14.
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I edited my post to say not in Greenland. Earlier voice over ftl.
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Loop the EPS 500 MB anomalies, and you’ll see what I mean. The block is elongated in Greenland and then it sort of get a boost by the cutter or SWFE next week, But that occurs to the north of us. Not in agreement.That is not what was modeled even three or four days ago. It might be a different story in the interior if we can get more of a southwest flow event next week. There’s still a chance even coastal areas can get some snow, but I would obviously caution that.
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Not sure what to make of the 12th. I think it’s voodoo but I’d still watch. Still a SWFE type deal possible on the 13-14.
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The nao is becoming kind of bootleg . The eps shows is really elongated and weakened as heights are knocked down from a temporary H5 trough. This is sort of what the gfs showed yesterday at 12z when everyone mocked it including me lol. You can see the height changes below. It does help form a block after day 7 or so and the pacific continues to show a very favorable look so that’s good.
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Well further north and west and higher up obviously is more confidence. However that could include your area too.
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The CPC graphic looks fine. It’s not a cold look. However, potentially cold enough over the interior anyways for snow. The coast too if airmass is sufficient.
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Nope
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Kevin?
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I mean op runs gonna op run. Not sure why we are even commenting on them as much as we are, but I’m guilty too.
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Yeah. Almost looks more like a SWFE.
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Something that resembles what my kids eat.
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Yeah I'm not really confident here, but interior areas should not give up regarding 14th. No idea what to make of the 12th...but there is some CAA behind that thing on the 10th...so there is a serviceable airmass should something pop.
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In my head I’m sort of compromising GEFS and EPS. Which would be pretty good I think as you alluded to.
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Gefs got better at the end. I think guidance overall has been to progressive with MJO stuff. It now looks like it’s more near 135E and a bit west of that. Before it was ticking the dateline. So what we are seeing makes sense in the near term.
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With all this being said, I still want to drop my draws for the EPS 11-15 day.
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I saw that on the mean.
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Can always go higher
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EPS is pretty amped for 13-14. SWFE meaning winds SW at the surface?
