CoastalWx
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Everything posted by CoastalWx
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There's always variations. The classic ones keep you below 32 until the "cold front" passes when you briefly mix the torched air aloft. Over here I may tickle 40ish with east winds but hopefully 6" of man snow is down prior.
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SouthWest Flow Event. These events are usually characterized by strong warm advection aloft (think 850 and above) on SW winds. At the surface many times you get redevelopment just offshore crossing over SE areas. Typically the airmass ahead of them is fairly cold, so snow or mixed precip occurs before any possible changeover. Typically these favor areas with latitude so the farther north you are, the better the chance of more wintry events. Many of a famous Nina's like 2007 and 2008 had these events.
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Well that depends if it cuts or not. Otherwise the warm stuff is over soon.
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Yep, a lot of agreement too after the 14th on a serviceable pacific and lingering higher heights near Davis Straits.
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FWIW I saw some clusters (think of these as groups of ensemble members with similar outcomes) that are now showing more of a SWFE or even redeveloping look for that thing on the 14th. It still might be dicey outside of CNE/NNE...but something to watch if we can get that deal on the 12th, to come in stronger.
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At least Jay gets to have a nice reindeer sweater on Saturday with Andy Williams playing in the background nibbling on a block of cheddar from Shaws. Sounds like a rockin' good time.
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Maybe weak ridging? Not sure about a -NAO though.
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No
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Blocking preventing him from coming northeast.
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Now I know why your posts have been strange lately.
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Check out the s/w. Pretty far north.
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Do me a favor and please stay safe. It’s dangerous out there.
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6z EPS is pretty close to a good solution on the 12th. That H5 low is pretty far north which to me may mean the qpf shield would be as well.
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It’s here. But in general everyone overrates the nao. Yes it’s good for biggies etc., but typically overhyped. In New England we can do fine without it. It does allow you to get away with certain things when the Pacific sucks. Blocking typically forces lows under us.
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It goes away after day 11 or so. Pacific driving the bus and takes over after that time. Still some small ridging in Greenland but the -NAO is about gone then. Speaking of, still some big run to run changes but the overall theme is a good look for us imo. Is it textbook? No…..but I’ll take it.
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We watch the 12th.
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It has. It’s been more -PNA and having a better handle.
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This place is insane lol
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I’m glad we have safe traveling weather
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I don't think the strat vort has anything to do with it. It's just nuances in the flow. There is a PV in Canada that has been shooting offspring around and playing with the block...but that is also from the Pacific causing issues. This isn't that sort of classic PV trapped under a block. It is stuck in western Canada and gets booted north. You can see that early on with the H5 anomalies.
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Might be a SWFE look. At least Canada has more money in the bank with that look.
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EPS was fine in the PAC. If anything the GEFS were better lol, but at least they are closer in agreement.
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My assessment is from all guidance, not just the ops. Embrace the rain on the 14th there. Interior NE still has a shot, esp NNE if this were to be a SWFE deal.
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EPS develops the 12th well offshore, but I still would keep an eye on it. It would not take much for some widespread -SN.
