I was hoping something in place for a change just before Christmas, but I'm not so sure now. But the ensembles are showing signs of shuffling at the end of the runs so we'll see.
Could be a narrow area just west of the CF that does relatively well. But if the NAM is right, might be a lot of flakes in the air at least for those removed from best moisture.
I think it's more of the pushing back vs whether it will happen or not. It's in my mind that it could suck through Christmas. Hoping for some turnaround prior.
It's a strong wave as modeled near the dateline mid month. It also feels like the ensembles are showing signs of shuffling a bit near the 20th. It's not a 2015 look going forward, but probably same areas favored that are getting snow currently.