CoastalWx

It's a fronto finger. So wherever that sets up. NAM a little further north, HRRR south. GFS and Euro south too. Something to watch. A bit further SW temps aloft are warm. Kind of like a SWFE.

Actually it might be messy for sure.

Meanwhile, SN/IP possible pike north late tomorrow night. Maybe into far nrn CT.

It's so dumb. Accept the weather you get, it's the onmy weather you got.

Not so sure about that

Not until later in week and AN but not furnace.

Meanwhile late month and early December I think has a chance of the guidance is correct. Extrapolating GEFS and EPS.

I mean there is no truth since we don’t know technically. But climo and seasonal models hint at a month that isn’t great. It’s ok. Life goes on. Hopefully that early month window is something. I also don’t think this isn’t December 2015 either.

Not sure why people get so defensive.

It’s a guess but I feel pretty good about it.

Weeklies we’re ugly into mid month. December definitely has a good chance of being hostile. There might be a window in the beginning of the month though.

Well that's it then. Time to tune up the Ariens.

Didn't he cancel winter yesterday?

Bengal Tigers eating Brian's pawpaws

That is also a snap shot as the pattern improved after Brooklyn's post. Right now, I'm not really big on December and expect it to be hostile at times. That doesn't mean it won't snow.

Maybe because I'm not someone who shows off, but that is mind boggling. What a waste of money on something that immediately depreciates when you drive off the lot. Unless of course you can afford it and it's not an issue.

Yeah maybe keep an eye on that. I see what you mean.

Well some of that is hyperbole. I mean I think we know when it truly will be Rains to Maines. Get a strong low cutting into NY state, and that's going to happen. But to your point about calling for AN when there are 2-3 weeks left of a month...there is skill to that. We can look ahead at the model ensembles and have a good idea of what the pattern entails from a temperature standpoint. You look at features that stick out to determine warmer or cold regimes. For instance a ridge across the E/SE US usually means warm weather. A ridge across the west coast into western Canada would likely mean colder weather for us. I look for certain features when I make a call like that. It won't always work out, but usually if one of us mets say a BN or AN month...they see something and they aren't just passively throwing shit against the wall to see if it sticks.

I could see that. Like Wednesday night into early Thursday. Maybe a little snow/ice in far nrn MA into VT/NH/ME.

GEFs definitely look more EPOish with the AK ridge. EPS sort of has a weak +PNA signal, but not before a lot of warmth exists across the US and Canada. Would take a little time to flush that out.

Look at the coop nearby to him probably 5 miles away. Not a single year at 50” for the whole decade until 1992-1993. Imagine that. He has no idea.

These kids were born into the winter privileged time post 1993. Taste reality.

Might be a chance on the 12 or 13?

I don’t really see anything glaring to me on seasonal guidance that indicates a rat for BOS.

I feel good about winter now.