CoastalWx
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Everything posted by CoastalWx
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You mean we aren't getting a 95/15 composite?
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Definitely a taste of Autumn in the air this week. Hate to admit, and frankly makes me sad...but first shot across the bow.
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I looked at the CFS today just before you posted that lol. A little too close to a torch for my liking on the CFS, but I get it.
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December could go either way. I know Dec 07 also had a big H5 anomaly even into New England.
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I'll pull for you on that one. Lets do it.
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Man what a mess. Luke living in the center of meteorological violence in SNE with Tors and flooding.
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Wow
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Well I think it's more about being bad luck ground zone due to warm season low tracks. I think that is just luck driven. However, warmer waters will help enhance the threat by providing the fuel.
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I'm not sure if Ernesto had any effect since it was so far east. This was a juicy atmosphere ahead of a trough. Only this time you had a stalled WF with a weak low helping to focus moisture in a narrow area.
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You can look at SPC Climatology page to get an idea too. Definitely was juiced yesterday overall.
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I think PWATS were about 1.7 to 1-8" or so? OKX was like 1.37" but they were a little east in the drier air. ALB was 1.8". It does look like it was close to 2" in SW CT which is fairly high.
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Looks quiet into early September.
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Is it me or does that area of CT get prone to heavy rain events. I feel like several 4-7” events have occurred there over last 5 years.
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I thought hrrr did well at hinting it. That was my basis really lol. Amazing mesoscale event.
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Looks like about .25” here for event.
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Those rainfall forecasts in the summer really shouldn’t be taken literally though. That’s like saying rainfall forecast was .25” but an isolated tstm went over and you get 3”. I get it was a bust on the wet side for many, but I wouldn’t view it as literally as you did there. Clearly that meso low was tough to model and the hrrr was the only model to really see any potential. Tough to base a forecast on something that was sort of an outlier. But it had the idea.
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Not bad, just happened over Li.
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May need to watch south coast of new England east of HVN. Could try to train there.
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Heaviest though may follow instability axis over the south. I could see that. Still moderate rains even briefly heavy aren’t good.
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Heaviest looks to go south of flooded areas luckily.
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Jesus. Was that a river? If that was a creek that’s incredible.
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Actually nrn part may need to be watched for any interaction with the boundary nearby.
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Heavy rain should stay south it seems.
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6z hrrr hinted at it too. Interesting. Lets back build.
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Summer is hard enough with weak Synoptics nevermind mesoscale events. I didn’t look but maybe hrrr hinted at something here. This time of year into October can have prolific rain events.
