It’s one metric skewed by one storm. I think there a few reasons why this season so far has been quieter in terms of named events. I know you want the ACE for winter lol.
Some of the theories are interesting. I certainly just want to understand it better. My guess a though later September into November will be quite busy.
I get the ACE argument mostly due to one storm. But I’m pretty sure most did not expect it to be so quiet. Those forecasts for 25-33 storms probably will be in trouble.
There’s been a few theories out there. One being ITCZ shifted pretty far north allowing more dust and also waves avoiding very warm water.
It will obviously get more active, but definitely quieter than many thought so far.
Maybe we can get some late season home brew in October/early November. That would be fun with the timing of troughs getting deeper as we head into the cold season.
We still have a suppressed MJO wave for awhile over the Atlantic. Also, some theories are that a displaced ITCZ to the north is aiding this by transferring dust and also waves not taking advantage of warm fuel.
Actually yeah I think they may have been clipped but I saw a storm report of 4.4” in 30 minutes from that July 89 supercell. Wtf.
605 PM EDT NEW HAVEN OXFORD 4.4 INCHES RAIN 1/2 HR.
A former coworker and Ryan were telling me how Oxford got hit by the 1989 tornado and the May 2018 QLCS event. That might be the most violent town in New England.