I can see that for winter storms etc sure. For landfalling New England canes, it's a unique thing that can be identified 7-8 days out. Longwave H5 patterns usually won't change a lot 7-8 days out. In winter, you are focusing on smaller scale shortwaves which can change, but the general longwave look does not change much. You also have ensemble guidance to help augment there. When everything is virtually unanimous showing a non-hit aside from one or two rogue ensemble members...I think confidence is almost 100% even that far out.