CoastalWx

100% sell.

I'll be calling 1-800-Spinazola then

You basically need a deep trough in the Ohio Valley and a ridge in the Atlantic steering this N to NW near Hatteras and then NNE into New England. More or less. If this was near the Bahamas we might have had a chance. As it is, it’s taking a north turnmuch too far east.

Euro having wild swings in track. We’ll see what the new euro op does for winter I guess.

Muggies back starting tomorrow.

Man what a dogshit model the euro is. LOL at Sunday verbatim. Glue factory. I can’t wait until the typical euro humpers go down in flames again this winter.

Euro was an eastern outlier so makes sense to come west. Continues to be a dogshit model.

It’s not stupid. We knew. There is a specific H5 setup to bring it here and it never had that look. It’s pretty clear that when it does not have that look it won’t come.

“Nothing is over!! Nothing!!! You don’t just stop tracking.”

This basically is me talking to Ineedsnow.

Maybe we'll see cirrus?

It's pretty much locked as a far east miss for SNE.

Don't do it.

Yeah some interesting thoughts.

Did you read the entire thread? These guys are notable experts in the long range/seasonal stuff. So clearly there is a broader discussion on the current status. I find it interesting.

Good discussion https://x.com/tcrawf_nh/status/1823324138544541732?s=46&t=tG3EO7ottoJCJly2pxMnSw

I think that is the point. It's not "haha it's a bust!" but more about learning what's causing a slower start then most expected. At least for me I'm interested. I do expect an active Fall, but need an active September to make up ground.

End of month it returns.

Yep, and also expect 64/62 for Christmas.

First day of school? LOL. Might be sooner.

It's coming.

Post from a former co-worker and in NWS. Very knowledgeable. The NHEMI total TC activity is well below normal season-to-date (thru 8/12). 18 named storms so far (normal is 24 season-to-date), 6 hurricanes/typhoons (normal is 12), and 2 major hurricanes/typhoons (normal is 6). Total ACE is only 52% of normal season-to-date. Yes, the Atlantic has been active, but only in some ways. Basically, Hurricane Beryl is the only anomaly so far and accounts for almost all the high numbers for the Atlantic season-to-date (named storm days, hurricane days, major hurricane days, and ACE). Not saying Beryl was not a major anomaly, but one storm does not reflect the entire season or season-to-date in the larger climatology picture. For instance, take the most active Atlantic hurricane season overall, 2005. Through 8/12 that season, we already had 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes (one strong Cat 4 and a Cat 5). This blows away (no pun intended!) the 2024 season-to-date. Since we have the warmest Atlantic ocean temps on record (~60 yr reliable record period), and conditions in the atmosphere are said to be so favorable, where is this hyperactivity for TCs in the Atlantic?? 2005 was a true hyperactive season, not only total, but it started early and never stopped, w/ active named storms most days July-Oct. Now, it is still early overall, but a couple things on that. 1) All forecasts are going for 20+ named storms in the Atlantic this season, and two have 25+ w/ one 33 and 2), none of the global models shows any tropical storm or hurricane development in the Atlantic the next 10 days, which brings us to 8/22. We have 5 named storms so far. Although 15 more named storms after 8/22 has happened before, and will get us to 20 for the season, 20 or more named storms for the true hyperactive forecasts (25+), that's going to be tough. Not saying it can't happen, but the Atlantic only has so much room and it actually can get too "crowded" w/ storms at times (happened in 2023 and other years). TCs need room around them to develop and esp. to get intense, otherwise, they will inhibit each other's full potential. So even though you can have 4 named storms at once, that tends to be the limit based on past very active seasons. And even in the most active seasons, there are cycles where conditions overall wane at times for TC development in the entire Atlantic, so it can't be full throttle to the max all the time in a season (2005 and a few other seasons going back to 1851 are close). The eastern Pacific is among its slowest, if not slowest start since reliable satellite records began (1970). 2024 already broke the record for the latest first named storm in this basin, and Carlotta was the second latest first hurricane on record in this basin (record is Aug 24 set in 2003). The western Pacific is not doing much better w/ ACE only 33% of normal season-to date.

Probably will be quiet for awhile after this one.

Nice morning

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