CoastalWx
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Everything posted by CoastalWx
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We chestnut?
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That more or less shows you what I meant in the earlier posts. You are starting to see an atmospheric response.
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Some guidance has nothing. So, would keep things a bit tempered. But late aftn evening looks good in wrn areas again. Perhaps spreading east overnight.
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Waiting to see the SPC HREF, but the NAM was rather intriguing on the warm front tomorrow..even in ern MA.
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At some point it will be longitude FTL for the coast.
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All phases stilll have lots of rain for CC MA USA.
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It just depends on warm front location and any leftover WAA convection and debris clouds. Might last through Friday night as decent upper level support accompanies this.
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NAM is rather impressive on Friday.
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Unfortunately it's his own stuff. It's just another way of viewing it instead of the legacy SST anomalies. I think some of the faux Nino talk was also from some of the model forecast of SST anomalies. The Euro has had a big warm bias, but this time around the spread was much tighter. Also, the forecasts from previous months, and the actual values that the ensemble members started from...were fairly close. Another words, the Euro seasonal did not exhibit such a month to month warm bias like previous years had.
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Ventrice has an interesting product that also looks at low frequency forcing..IE where the areas of overall upper level divergence and convergence are. It will be interesting to see how Nino behaves in the Fall. Sometimes it doesn't line up with the anomalies and that sort of throws a wrench into things.
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How is he designating ENSO? Which monthly period? Fall..winter? That all matters. Is it from MEI? ONI?
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I have not looked. I'll probably wait until September to start looking.
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Yeah in no way can you claim what ENSO will do..especially whether it's east or west. The next couple of months become more crucial.
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Yes. Think that is it. Just came from nowhere.
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We’ve had plenty of days with SW winds and storms. Especially this time of year. But when you move into an environment that is torched aloft, subsidence instead of lift, you kill anything moving east.
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But 2000J isn’t marine layer. We’ve had nasty heights too. That’s been a trend last few years.
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Well it’s not really wind direction though. At least for surface. Anyways looks like wet weather enroute starting Saturday.
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It’s more than that. CAPE has been there, but there has been lots of ridging or subsidence east of ORH. When heights rise, That is a killer. Great for the beaches but not lawns. It’s been better lately.
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Another sneaky 3-4” rain event there after 4-5” last weekend.
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Cape getting smoked.
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No kidding. Imagine those polygons.
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No. Any tstm has life threatening lightning and many non severe storms has similar or even more LTG than sever storms. So no, that aspect should not be included. It is understood any tstm can be hazardous.
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Pretty sure I have a Chestnut here on my street. I’ll grab a pic. Also nice to see an elm too, although it’s got some brown leaves now. I have these weeds going nuts in my front and not sure what it is, but needs to be terminated. Never had that. I’ll grab a pic.
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I’m kidding, but I know if I were vacationing up there, I’d want some sun. Especially with two kids lol. Grass not as green here as other areas, but it’s ok. Just enough rain and some watering to prevent the burnout from two years ago.
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Isn’t it nice to have sun? You guys are the cloudiest place on earth.
