And for the “easy for you to say” crowd....how many times have we seen this? Sure maybe we’re proven wrong...lord knows last two seasons have done that for me...but I think this s/w as modeled is pretty potent and it wouldn’t shock us to see a couple of moves NW. not necessarily jumps, but more like bumps.
That s/w as modeled is strong. The wave is fairly far offshore and likely tied to baroclinic processes with the help of some positive vorticity advection from the s/w. So, if this s/w were to be even stronger, it may bump a little NW.