They definitely get upslope/lake effect even if weakening. There are decent hills there and trajectory on NW flow is good for them. @CT Rain could explain more.
That’s a good way of putting it. When you’re on a role winter wise, the hits just keep coming. Even in a crappy pattern you’ll squeeze a single through the shift.
And they very well may not see anything until a day or two from now, or it could be the 26th, or the Euro may not be correct. It’s always complicated when it’s a split flow regime.