CoastalWx

In comparing 12z euro with 00z euro, The nrn stream seemed more progressive to me vs 12z. There also was a kicker. However, there may be some subtle signs of the srn energy helping cyclogenesis near ACK. In any case, I didn't see any big changes either way....just some subtle things that really matter since the profile is borderline in SNE for a time. All about the deets, baby. Still need to iron it out. At the very least, some rain to snow is likely inland even if not all snow. You can't ask much more than that prior to mid November.

Still yet to go below 32. I think longest since I moved here. We wait.

Might be some warm members there on the EPS. There’s still a chance this comes further north so there is that.

Baby crying on the changing table covered in poo, while Ray straps on snow pants and tiptoes through neighbors yard measuring.

Yeah I think it’s coming. Not locked, but the fact that the 6z excrement started to get a clue, adds confidence.

Second weenie run in a row. Some ensemble support for that too, but that’s is clown range

The fact the ICON is mentioned is disturbing.

I have bare oaks and some that have green. Variety of species that drives me nuts.

It won’t take much at all to bring more of a taint or cold rain. I half kid, but it’s early season and it won’t take much, that’s all. I don’t have a feeling either way. I’d probably feel good interior and north of pike for now, but it’s early in the game. The gfs refuses to budge. This should be interesting.

Man pivotal.....they have a nice zoomed in sector for BOS. Can tell there are grid spacing issues as it tries to show mix into 128..but real nice to see.

One nice thing about this is that there is a bit of a scooter streak preceding this s/w, north of Maine. That helps to press the cold south. There is the unmanned firehose aspect...but it doesn't seem like a system digging towards the Gulf and the latent heat machine takes over and helps lift this into CT. I don't expect much this time of year, I'd be happy with rain ending as a coating of paste. It's refreshing to even entertain this type of system this early.

It's good for the models, but otherwise I don't find EST it good for anything.

See I like DST. Now everyone has to come in earlier. It will drive me nuts.

This will be a congrats PF before we know it.

Wow nice guys. Pretty sweet.

I know Will and Chris were talking about it, but that run is pure nrn stream. I suppose maybe srn stream helps loosen up heights down in the south for it to dig, but that’s mostly nrn stream.

That's great the clown ensemble guidance consensus shows a nice hit. Ukie looks like a whiff and we wait for the real model to come out soon.

It’s been pretty bad in the 3-7 day period. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve said “oh look it’s moving towards the euro..” when looking ahead for risk outlooks etc. Maybe this time the GFS gets a win. From a met community standpoint, it really brings down the value of the meteorologist when you have one dominant medium range model.

Yeah it’s got a general cool bias, but loves to flood ORH with the marine layer. Go figure.

I definitely will, as usual...just about scheduling. He’s a big skier and was talking about all the places around Stowe as well. Between the lake there, BTV, and all the ski areas with top notch bars and restaurants, you got a good thing going.

We might have to send Diane back if that happens. But yeah, it’s fast flow and sheared with cold pressing south, but also ridging pumping up ahead of ejecting s/w in the Plains. So you see how it’s all about timing. We’ll need that s/w in the plains to help phase with some of that s/w energy ejecting out of the Southwest US.

Had a real nice conversation with some of my wife’s family living in Winooski VT. Of course it turned into Breweries. I got to get up there. I’m sure PF and Jspin know of these places he was rattling off, but sounds like a great time.

Definitely some man cold (sorry Diane) coming next weekend and then maybe another shot the week after.

Get in and stay with deep ass cold. And yes it’s disturbing Sunday morning conversation.

33 again with frost. Still yet to crack 32.