CoastalWx
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Everything posted by CoastalWx
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Should be fine. No issues.
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The s/w is picking up Mexican avocados and bringing them to our front door. Nobody should be surprised. But, the thermals won't really change inland.
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It's a shit show. I've got the job of turbulence and convection forecasting. Effing mess.
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I'm not surprised given the origins of that s/w.
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GFS probably has the idea with low location, but the thermals are off. Euro seems to like to be too cold and SE with these.
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18z euro amping up.
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170-180kt at 500mb is about as high as you will ever see at that level.
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GFS is a mini-cane over the waters east of PSM. Jesus.
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GFS bringing 50F to MHT. The rest of us are living in a tropical paradise. That would be funny, but unlikely.
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Soundings were epic Friday aftn there. Some of the models had intense forcing with the low in CT. In fact almost a MAUL look there.
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The euro was real close to pinging even near Stowe. Something to watch, but not like it will knock accumulations back much.
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No matter the track, that looks nasty for Dave verbatim.
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So much for the 12z snow. Tossed.
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Yeah that will be closer. Almost has to.
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Well WRF ARW2 tucks to BOS.
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I think you’re in for quite an icy solution
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Dude you’re locked and loaded. We jelly LOL. But enjoy it man.
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Yeah that snow blitz ain't happening I don't think. I think track along s coast and SE MA probably, but the srfc temps inland still probably 30-32 with that track.
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The meso models like the 12z WRF-NMM show the cold tuck solution. I for the most part believe in them, but If this thing does intensify rapidly, it may become a non-issue near and inside 495 as the mesos show. My gut would agree with the mesos, but if I had to forecast, I may sort of find a compromise at this stage, while acknowledging the possible colder scenario.
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Nothing like a bombing low over MHT.
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That’s insane, but believable wherever that occurs because the dynamics with this are really impressive.
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Gravity wave feedback on the 3K NAM for sure, LOL.
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It could waffle north and warmer too. I guess the one good thing is that the whole thing is weak and more or less a frontal boundary before the real good dynamics ignite rapid cyclogenesis and move the low north. So if it is weak, you can push that boundary south. On the other hand it could come close to the SNE coast and make this rather uninteresting for many. I'd pay attention north of the pike and NW of 495 for now, but verbatim that is some ice into 128 I think. Just not sure the NAM is correct.
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It's the NAM picks. I'd wait to see the other guidance too. Verbatim the NAM is real icy almost to Kev.
