It may not be a fluke, but if the H5 low moves south or is less intense, that will have an effect on the outcome. I don't think the euro will completely abandon what it had at 6z, instead it may adjust. Or maybe it holds stubborn..lol.
Canadian is a little disorganized too, although some snow to end. Basically it digs the ULL very far south and is stretched. As a result you do not get rapid cyclogenesis and the srfc low is stretched. It doesn't allow the comma head to really wrap up like the euro. We'll see what the euro does. Sometimes the GFS and GEM don't do well with these intricate processes, but we've seen the euro back off at times too.
In the spirit of transparency, the 12Z EPS was slightly less hostile in the 11-15 day. Obviously it could and will a oscillate. It had some ridging build deeper into AK which in turned appeared to plunge the come more SE. If we are going to have a dateline ridge, you want ridging into Santa‘s fanny. That will help limit SE ridging.