The problem is that it is not a classic Aleutian trough. Looping the ensembles, you can see we have low heights over the Bering Sea and at times a s/w trough kicks out and breaks down the western NAMR creating a Chinook type flow. Meanwhile, the PV retreats north. That is not a good recipe for us.
Yes at times the ridge spikes so maybe you have a shot at something well timed, but it's another example of a turd in the punch bowl which is a recent issue for us.