CoastalWx
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Everything posted by CoastalWx
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A -EPO always has that possibility. Just because a smoothed out mean doesn't show it 14 days out, does not mean it's a fail. When is the last time we had those anomalies that were modeled all across the CONUS with a -EPO? Almost never. I'm pretty sure we even said it wasn't a perfect look because it could cause a gradient. That is what we will have. Why do you think I joke around with your -EPO hard on? It's playing with fire, hopefully we are on the good side.
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Nothing has changed. That look always fosters a -PNA possibility. Take what you can get. It’s certainly no pig, in fact the opposite.
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No this really has been steady. The ridging in the Pacific has not change. -PNA always risk with EPO. So is overrunning too.
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I think hideous is a bit harsh. We can roll with it, it’s a bit of a gamble.
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You need to be careful because that is a cutter risk. -PNA.
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Playah please, with all that nonsense.
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Well, I think if it came close enough, it would flip to a 32 Fahrenheit isothermal paste. If it’s just very light precip, it’s more less inconsequential.
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Yeah airmass is total garbage so will need dynamics. But man that’s close. That is night and day from 00z. Compare that s/w at 00z near Kansas City is now in Illinois and being incorporated into the trough at hr 60 on the 12z run.
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If I didn't see the srfc pattern...I would have thought we'd be in for a good one. But yeah, that lead s/w screws us. Ugh...so close.
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I give Ray credit. First step is admitting you toss around kids toys in anger. Will has avoided admitting as much, but I do wonder how much violence was committed in his house hold after the 00z runs last night.
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NAM is a disaster.
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I thought the nrn stream looked better on the 6z EPS. Hopefully 12z can bring some answers.
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Give it through 12z today, but I also would not fool yourself either.
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From one person.
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Poor Kev. He went on a tirade yesterday about this storm. Lots of hurt people left in his wake.
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Well, it was four days out, and we never had off our runs before with the euro.
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Getting back to your comment about cirrus to BL issues, it’s speaking more to the airmass ahead of it regardless of track. That’s all I meant.
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The airmass is real borderline in ern areas. So its not just QPF that’s an issue. Will need a good CCB.
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That nrn stream is clearly making some western members there.
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I suppose it could? There is some time left but the flow remains progressive.
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That nrn stream on euro continues to look dam potent.
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A torch. Lock that in. Only thing that can go right.
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Nope I said whatever happens this weekend, it looks like we will moderate, before the pattern reshuffles.
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No it wasn’t that wet at all.
