I think you want something with some meat and overnight to help with precip. Would probably start as a mix and then flip. Otherwise, anything with lighter rates and during the aftn may not stick at all. 12z UKMET is just some clouds.
I think it may be fake. Where is the damage to the apt building if that happened? It was an EF3 so it would mean that the car couldn't have come from far away. I don't see damage showing something that corresponds to a car lifted into the 3rd floor.
I’m not committing to anything yet. I’d like to see things at least look a little better from the gfs and at least hold serve on the euro. Still a lot of time left.