I think people expect 8-12" events to grow on trees after the last decade, but in reality they don't have a return rate that is frequent if you look at climo. When I look at that, I consider 8-12 (especially 12") to be a major event.
Yeah I think 8-12 would cover many areas, maybe a narrow area getting it more where the mesoscale fronto is. I still think those north of pike may get into decent fronto. Even you Ray.
NAM goes nuts for a variety of reasons..lol. I do think That area near UNV on N and E get smoked due to the mid levels closing off and going to town. That is jack zone IMO.
Meh could be noise, could be ridding of the extreme wrn outliers too. I mean an area near the Quabbin could have been 10.5" on the 00z run and get into the light purple shading and now is 9.7" on the 6z run and stay in the blue.
Should be mostly dry snow except maybe SE cstl areas for a time. Even here it may get near 32 and a little wet before dropping later in the storm. 128 on N and W probably teens for a time.
Well it threw more QPF into NNE, but ever so slightly trimmed the line where >1' QPF falls. It could be noise, but it could be the goal posts narrowing a bit. Overall those are small, but good trends for now.
I definitely don’t like a de-amplifying s/w as it approaches. Not usually the best for big snows, but on the other hand if we had that, it would be congrats Montreal and Ottawa.