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CoastalWx

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by CoastalWx

  1. So in my mind something like a Reggie track is sort of what I envisioned when I look at the H5 stuff. A lot of the guidance shunted it east. I know why it did....but that was always sort of what I envisioned. Reggie caveats apply naturally this far out. That’s sort of a balance between lows feeding off of PVA and baroclinic processes in my mind, but I’m also not running complex atmospheric dynamics equations in my mind.
  2. NAM has no choice but to come south. It had the 700 low near Albany at 12z.
  3. Long range overall still looks good IMO. The real lack of a SE ridge in this Nina is interesting.
  4. It does. It depends where the layer that is between -12C to -18C resides. Since the airmass is fairly cold, this will be found lower than anything we saw during the storm we had two weekends ago.
  5. It's likely closer to 700mb, but your thought process is on track.
  6. EPS is still dam good. Even with a slight SE shift on the nrn edge, really goes to town over CT RI and into MA up to and north of pike.
  7. Punctuation Awakening. Rise of the exclamation points.
  8. That is a great band signal once again to the pike though.
  9. If it went south again it would be closer to the GFS, but more like a 70/30 compromise to the euro right now.
  10. I did. I just don't like how it flattens out as it moves overhead. It may not mean much as the low is already matured and won't really weaken...but I don't see how it produces that much QPF in a larger area. JMHO.
  11. Yeah the Ukie amounts aren't happening. Not with a dampening s/w and occluded low.
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