It's not totally elevation. Because the temps 850-700 get to be like a SWFE...warmer to the south. So maybe elevation matters to a point, but so will latitude.
Kevin's 3K a little more south. You see how delicate it is, but this does seem like oe of those events where 700-500 lift will dictate where the jack would be. Gonna need the DGZ to get smacked with VV to help flip that area over to snow. Look north of the H7 front IMO.
Placement of deep lift, timing of cold air infiltration, and a difference in temps of like 1-2F between 925-700ish or so will be tough to determine. That will be the difference of 1-2" vs 4-6"+.
Tough call with this. On one hand, high pressure building south and putting the squeeze on. On the other hand, convection and latent heat wanting to amp the downstream ridge a bit.
LOL it’s all good, but the EPs had this signal for a long time. Even when the euro op was a cutter it showed it under SNE. We’ll see what happened because this will be tough to pin down, but hopefully at least an advisory event for many.