CoastalWx

All modeled.

All models had decent rains in that area today.

That was a slide SE on the euro.

HRRR smoking s coast of SNE.

Bufkit has gusts to about 30 maybe 35kts at BDL. Meh.

Reggie still south coast.

Yeah but we don't know exactly where the stuff sets up. No need to have several million people think they're going to float away. I think strong wording is good and then you handle it with the warnings. Public won't respond to watches. They'll respond to people like Ryan talking about possible impacts.

NAM/3K NAM/RPM...all basically the same idea. Lots of rain. The true jack area still up in the air.

Ryan was texting this, and I agree....that blob of convection will ride the WF...so possible that may be a little south as modeled too.

HRRR shit show south of pike. I hope not.

SRN CT jack. Congrats on water issues.

The rates are going to get some. Like areas maybe north of pike have longer duration. It's possible near and south of pike get a break and then just monster rates for 3-4 hrs will be the main rain event. It's possible during this time that 3-5"+ falls in that 3-4 hrs.

Globals using synoptics like 700 fronto, while mesos using the WF for lift.

BOX disco mentioning what I was saying yesterday regarding the models and what they are focusing on regarding globals and mesos. So, still some differences. But I’d say mesos nudged north too.

Yep.

3K a little less crazy, but same idea near WF.

Luckily it’s load blown SW to a point, but we’ll see.

HRRR continues to highlight s coast along warm front. Hell of a soaking everywhere else.

I wish they could train and observer at Logan. This is ridiculous. There’s options around, but not sure how this season shakes out.

Doth be too cold to cut thy trees.

Will be neat to see it play out. Looks like fun down your way regardless.

Yeah maybe a min...but probably still a soaking. Reggie is along S coast too.

Yeah. Wherever that is, will be where it gets crazy.

I probably lean mesos for now with a nod to euro for global. It's still a tropical system that yes is becoming ET, but it's the warm season. Convective blobs can do weird things to models. My 2 pennies....Areas maybe pike to SNH see a prolonged mdt to heavy rain event, but may not get the uber rates. The areas south may get Steined for awhile, but could get 2-4"+ in a couple of hours with spinner risk near low center and on warm front. Tough to say who jacks. I do like the HRRR look on the warm front fwiw.