RitualOfTheTrout

Tonight should be out best shot to hit 0, we shouldn't have any issue with clouds from what I can see. The Sunday clipper looks less and less impressive as we close in, not unusual for these things to dry up as we close in but I thought maybe a solid 2-3 a few days ago was possible but now looking like maybe an inch.

Its all subjective, but snow cover is less overrated than single digits and bare ground imho. If its going to be cold, and no snow is falling there might as well be some on the ground. WAA is almost always under modeled, hence why during a storm we get the warm nose. It does suck, but there should be enough liquid in the snow / frozen ground underneath / lower sun angle through filtered overcast that we don't lose to much. Its going to compact but whatever refreezes should having some staying power.

Need the front today to hang up a little further NW if we want to see a little snow pack refreshing tonight. Looks like moisture wants to slide just to the SE of Pittsburgh area.

Looks like it's a near perfect phase of 2 potent northern and southern stream short waves by 240, then more energy dumps into the trough and retrogrades the low, similar to this last storm in that regard. By the end trough is very negative and at least 3 contour closed low at 500. Absolute beast.

Wow... That's crazy even for fantasy land, almost obscene to look at.

I agree, but I'd take a clipper especially if the alternative is just cold and dry. The flow looks conducive for clippers to dive down and depending how far they dig give us some snow, and if they time right with something in the southern stream maybe we see something phase and take an inland track again, or if they dig really far some sort of miller B action.

THIS. I was going to post, good news is there a several s/w so plenty of chances for something to pop, bad news, there are several s/w so models will have a hard time figuring out which ones to focus on and they will in some cases interfere with each other. I'd fully expect in this setup something might just blow up in the short / medium term. If a storm is going to miss us, we probably want it to stay weak and progressive and get the hell out of the way so as to not interfere with the next one with spacing issues etc.

GFS has nothing like this, crazy the two are so different in like the 72-96hr range. I fully expect one to take a strong step towards the other. If the Euro is correct though it closes off pretty early, I'd wager in that instance it comes north.

There are some bands evident on radar mixed in with the steady light snow / flurries currently. Looks like a decent one might go over me shortly.

That looks pretty close to NWS forecast. We knew the higher totals where likely to be NW. Last night I thought this might bust, but it didn't, it was maybe on the lower end of the ranges but you don't just look at the biggest number and run with it. You can lament the what ifs / what could have been or just enjoy what we got. I experienced 2 different heavy bands of snow, met the range of snow forecast, it's cold and snowing still after the storm. I'd call that a win

If we are talking somewhere relatively close I'd go to Deep Creek, they do well in upslop and are generally in a good spot for various storm tracks.

Its semantics but it 6 in 12hr or 8 in 24 over 50% of the warned area, based on totals I see coming in that verified. Maybe lower end for immediate Pittsburgh area. https://www.weather.gov/pbz/winterterms

I see what you did there. It's a lock 2-4 more Wednesday night. So the NAM has forecast it, so it shall come to pass.

I just measured 7.5, few lower / few higher so I'm going with that. Its heavy compacted so had I measured with a snow board I wouldn't be shocked if it would have been an inch or more than that. I can't say for sure about the reported totals but when I woke up around 4:00-4:30 it was a very heavy snow, easily 1+ per hour.

Heavy snow here currently.

You staying up for the Euro?

Yeah NAM and HRRR show around 1am precip builds back in. I'm at 3, can we snag 5 more? 8 was my bar so within reach.

Lol, this Steelers game is like this storm, at first it looked like maybe just maybe we might have a shot of at least looking competitive then the wheels just fell off.

You missed Feb 2010? That was one it looked like we would miss again to the South, then the detour sign went up and the blocking confluence let up just enough and we got crushed. One that started getting better and better as we got closer.

I mean I don't know the numbers, but central Ohio might be a worse climo zone than us lol. I'm not one to root for somewhere else to not get snow unless it's what needs to happen for my yard to jackpot. If I can get a big snow then the more the merrier.

Climo does suck for big storms, to far away from the lakes outside of rare squall lines or persistent bands, to far from the ocean where storms want to develop due to natural baraclonic zone with cold land / warm ocean, on the wrong side of the apps so we don't benefit from CAD, I could probably go on lol

It's usually SE we miss these things, at least in recent memory.

This isn't a true miller a apps runner though, the double barrell low look is why we've got the dryslot vs a more developed storm tracking up inland from the South. It is what it is, nothing wrong with pointing out things are going the wrong way. No doubt if at the end of this we are at like 5in it's a pretty big bust. We've been on the Eastern edge of the bigger totals and it looks like things might break the wrong way. Our loss is someone else's (Cleveland) gain, that's the name of the game.

Yeah, that's rough. I guess close enough to hope gets a little further SE.

18z GFS had 2 more storms through the run so who knows lol