RitualOfTheTrout

Honestly the crews have been out, any pretreated road should be fine. Now untreated will probably get dicey quick. If temperatures are really in the mid to upper 30s overnight I’d even be willing to bet conditions aren’t to bad tomorrow morning. If that’s wrong though then all bets are off.

Yeah looks good, the South trend can end now lol

So the trend with today’s storm was a continual tick NW around 72 hours, this ones been going SE, so just based on putting money on the current trend that’s what I’d say. No real scientific evidence though.

Watch this one miss to the SE.....

I hope you are right on this, I can see a scenario with heavy plain rain that would really decimate the snowpack. Not saying I expect this, but I think it’s a possible outcome if things break in the wrong direction.

It’s also showing no snow with round 2 tonight. I know it’s not a 1:1 comparison but it will be interesting to see how that plays out. May give some hints for Thursday especially considering (as of right now) we should have colder air in place ahead of it, the high is a little stronger to the north and the low is tracking further South.

Coming down nicely right now, I’ll just enjoy this as I whistle past the graveyard with regards to round 2.

At the end of the day all the meteorologists can do is use the tools they have at their disposal. Sure you can apply local / regional climatology and outcomes of past similar storm evolutions but if all that’s based on incorrect variables from guidance used as your initial base state you don’t stand a chance. Thats why you see more seasoned folks reluctant to jump head first into forecasts depicting big events. As we have just witnessed even with a solid consensus it’s still possible to be wrong enough to dramatically effect the outcome. Then your left with trying to explain what happened to a general public that has little to no understanding of how anything in the process works let alone even a scrap of atmospheric science. It’s all a bunch of H and L graphics on a map with pretty colors to most.

I think a lot of what you are saying is in the works. Look into the UFS (Unified Forecast System) Its goal is to use same simplified code across all agencies and allow Private and Academia development too. https://ufscommunity.org/ The other goal is to improve ensemble forecasts as they are superior to a single model. https://www.hpcwire.com/2020/09/23/noaa-announces-major-upgrade-to-ensemble-forecast-model-extends-range-to-35-days/

In theory a stronger more NW storm could serve to suppress heights in the east and boost confluence allowing the Thursday storm to track under us.

And what if 00z / 12z shifts East tomorrow? I expect they will probably tweak the forecast after 00z tonight but the threat for combination of snow sleet and freezing rain probably still merits a warning. NWS can’t flip flop every 6 hours when a weenie has a meltdown. My forecast is for 3-6 and .1-.2 ZR, which imho can still probably verify albeit in the low end of the range.

Wow.. I'd think a lot of rain maybe with that?

Keyword, almost. I agree though it's not like we were counting on this storm to save winter season snow totals and it fell apart at the end. The big December and ability to telework when roads are bad has made this one of the more enjoyable winters for me to track storms and be happy with whatever falls whenever it falls.

Yep, I remember multiple times as a kid watching 6pm news for weather ( I used to time them so I could catch all 3 stations, 2,4,11) with a storm projected to be all snow only to hear the pinging on my bedroom window and that feeling knowing warm air was winning. I didn't understand any of the causes then, probably why I was so interested to learn more about the science as I got older.

Yeah won't make any friends here, looks like it brings the low further north... See if the Euro does the same. It's almost agonizing seeing that bitter cold air so close and not being able to tap into it.

Nowcast / obs from around our area should be fun, someone in western Allegheny might be ripping sleet or snow while its raining in Monroeville. (Sorry Meatwad )

Still well within model error though, where that zone sets up could be off by 25-50 miles even as we get close to game time. Unfortunately the direction of the error is probably NW given we still seem to be bleeding that way. Now if we see a SE tick to the track and infiltration of warm air as we close in then maybe you can hedge that will continue through the storm. One other thing to note though is that the snow maps can be really misleading in the transition zone, so it's hard to tell if we are really that close or not just based off that.

Yeah I'd rather have a sleet bomb if we can't get snow if I had the choice although those aren't very enjoyable to go take a walk in like a heavy snow unless you like the sensation of being sand blasted.

That will help a little, but I just don't get excited over ice depicted unless it's at least in the 20s. Ice formation releases latent heat too so you need some mechanism to replenish the cold. Don't get me wrong even a tenth of ice on an untreated surface can be a disaster, but you won't be seeing trees snapping and power outages if the NAM temperature profile verifies.

NAM is the warmest model, 32-34 during bulk of the precipitation and gets into the upper 30s before the cold swings back through. Even if we stay at 31, ice accretion will not be efficient. Sure there will be a glaze but it's not a 1:1 ratio like those maps project.

Taking the NAM verbatim there would be a brief period of ice but surface temperatures are 32-34 during the heaviest part, very little ice will form in that scenario. If the 12z NAM is right we go from light snow to sleet to ZR then mainly rain for the bulk of it.

3k NAM brings plain rain all the way to I80 nearly on the second wave.

Be careful with UK snow maps, I think it counts sleet and zr as snow but I could be wrong.

Yeah... This winter is a total disaster dumpster fire. I know you're just kidding, so am I. If we bust on these next 2 storms hard to be bitter over it given totals to date even if we don't see another flake til next season. I don't think this shifts much more one way or another now. I'd guess 50-75 miles, if it's all further NW we see more sleet and rain then dry slot, the other way and its more snow, I think either option is still within the model error at this time.

Yeah this is my thought too, nobody should jump off the ledge over the NAM the same way you shouldn't be dropping the "It's Happening Meme" when it bullseye's you. Now if other 00z guidance follows then backs it up at 12z tomorrow that's when I'll start to be concerned. Need to see at least 2-3 runs to establish a trend vs a wobble one way or the other.