RitualOfTheTrout

Same, just came in from a walk with the dog pulling kid on the sled. It was heavy snow, measured 1.5 but by the time we got back it was 80% sleet. Seems like from the obs it's going back and forth all over so hopefully we flip back

There must be some warmth associated with this until push that gets mixed out / mitigated with some wetbulbing.

Big flakes here too, but coming down pretty heavy at the moment. I do think there is some truth to what you say, flakes start sticking together when they fall through a warm layer. I remember my Dad telling when I was a kid his recollection of the big snows having smaller flakes. All anecdotal of course

I can't say for certain but would bet it's based on one of the short range models. That's about when the NAM showed it.

I do the same, the new radar is so laggy.

I expect better from you.

Plus it's going to be 42 and rain Wednesday and all melt away, just call the whole thing off now. Bite the cyanide pill now and save yourselves! Sorry, couldn't resist, I'm only kidding but hey if the wheels do come off at least we don't reset our 12in+ every 15 year statistic. (I know it doesn't work that way)

Flurries here, and pretty breezy. Cable and internet just went out.

It has some similarities for sure, but nowhere near the strength. I still like jwilisons analogy as a clipper going as March 93 for Halloween.

That’s my take, GFS / GEM both looked to have ticked a little bit east granted their usefulness is less this close in but if we see an agreement that we get a slightly east track / faster transfer we might be in business. It’s almost time to start watching the radar.

Maybe the Chiefs all wake up with COVID today? So it's not a Zero chance.

Just for fun I clicked through to end of Euro, and it has a very similar setup next weekend, shortwave diving down with another coming in behind that could phase partially...

Yeah, some of the heaviest snow looks to fall before 1am, then go to bed and don't fret the slot and wake up a few hours later and watch radar fill in, that might be my plan lol. Being east of the city my yard probably needs more of an adjustment.

Well hopefully your bad mojo ends up in a last minute change to a hotel further SE! Erie looks to be in the sweet spot right now and should do well with some lake enhancement on the back end. Can't say I've ever chased a snow storm, it's either my yard or bust but certainly respect your dedication to seeing big snow and hey it's a good excuse to travel.

Lol, like all 4 of us just had the same thought at the same time.

I really hope we can get that to slide SE, crazy stuff can happen in those deform bands if your really looking for 12+

If it was the other way around and NAM was the only thing that looked good we'd toss it. I'm not going to worry until other models show the same, or radar looks like the NAM.

Everything looks as good as can be expected based on the concerns (dryslot / mid level warmth) which won't be known until game time. It would be nice to see those become less pronounced on short term models as we get closer.

Pretty much all models show that dryslot feature, where exactly it ends up and how extreme yet to be determined.

How many times the NAM has given false hope on a positive outcome, if it scores a coop on that extreme dryslot solution.... I say we DDOS the super computer it runs on lol

Lol, Right!? I noticed that little dot there and thought hey I'll take it. Guess that would qualify under the "Locally higher amounts you see in the discussions"

A little better than 00z though, appears this run it's killing off the secondary low a little faster so less influence of the dryslot. Amounts fall right into the 8-12 in range too. I still can't believe what a long track this storm has been,usually we see a storm 5-6 days out and it looks good for a day or two then it's gone or its waffling all over and we sweat bullets until the first flakes fall. At least for me, right now, this is one of the more enjoyable storms, we have some wiggle room, the tracking has been satisfying, and it looks to stay cold after the storm. Obviously nothing has actually happened yet so not trying to spike any footballs but just a reminder, don't forget to take a step back from the computer screen and just enjoy the moment. The time leading up to storm almost has a special aura about it, like Christmas Eve as a kid or something.

I'm with you on that lol, but it's not the lousy model it used to be. It's had several upgrades and does pretty well on scoring at least at 500mb. The reason it looks so good the dryslot issues stay well south and east and it hammers us in the deform band the GFS and Euro have further NW. So from that perspective it probably represents our high bar if everything works out perfectly.

GFS / Euro are still the way go to until tomorrow 12z,after that we are getting into 24-36 hours of onset so short range models start to gain skill. To much anxiety started brewing from looking at short term models at the end of the runs. Not to say they don't sometimes sniff something out, but until agreement with other guidance no reason to get down on this storm. Definitely looks like light snow on and off Monday. Should get a good flow off the lakes + wrap around + NWS mentioned of a secondary trough moving through should = that post storm snow globe look.

Probably the NAM over doing mid level warmth. NAM clearly has that dual low structure and that's only going to exacerbate funneling warm air in if it hangs on to long. Either way, I wouldn't put much weight on that being its 60+ hours on the NAM. Half the time I think it shouldn't really even run past 24hrs.