Blizzard-on-GFS
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Everything posted by Blizzard-on-GFS
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Wow radar just filled in nicely for the Philly to Trenton areas! Snowing pretty hard here now in Bordentown. I’ve got a little more hope we can pick up some more accumulation. HRR is spitting out an additional 3-6” which I would be more than happy with. -
Why is the NAM showing another foot for our area? I don’t trust the models anymore. Did it initialize wrong?
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Wow this gonna be a top 3 bust all time for my location near Trenton. At least I’ve learned NEVER to trust a 10-1 snow map again. I looked at the snow depth maps last night and they had this writing on the wall but I didn’t see anyone on these forums posting the maps. If there’s a warm layer nearby it will find a way to muck things up. Also, Miller Bs rarely work out for I-95 and east. And lately, if your on the border of a dry slot, expand the dry slot because subsidence will make areas on the edge lose out every time.
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Literally we got pretty much zero snow from the coastal. This is a top 3 all time bust for my area. 0z runs last night showed a consensus 12-24” additional and we are gonna end up with 1-3” more at most. We might be done already. Feels bad man...
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Lol my 5” in Trenton?! What an epic bust this storm was.
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Yes man, I woke up late today and looked at the radar and immediately said wow holy crap this thing busted. I looked at the radar and got sick, you can tell that that banding is going to pivot north west of us. This will be year three without a good storm, it’s amazing how every time we have a set up at somehow collapses at the last moment...
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HRRR is completely and utterly lost on this one. Just look at the radar sim. It has no CCB and precipitation field to the west of the low. Not gonna happen, it's an extreme outlier. Even the other mesos whole disagree.
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Interesting to see a more north to south cutoff on the jackpot zone emerging compared to the Northeasterly cutoff earlier. Makes sense with a Miller B to see this though.
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I didn’t expect this to be a hugger thorough. But yeah I’d like an all snow event for once, it will be close
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It wasn’t expected, we were all snow on nearly all models till recently.
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Does I-95 mix?
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How are you feeling about TTN? We've been shafted for years lol. Gfs and Euro jackpot us, while the mesos screw us in different ways. I'm probably a bit more nervous then I should bee..
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The best part is it's still snowing past 84 hours lol
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Do you think the coast could see a blizzard warning? The watch says winds to 50mph. I imagine that might meet blizzard conditions. I haven’t been looking at the winds on the models myself but that’s something to keep an eye on
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For north and west yes there is huge spread. For CNJ pretty much every model shows a foot plus. If people are expecting 4” and get over a foot that is a huge difference on impact that people need to prepare for.
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I have to disagree. I think this map is comically low and is supported by no model. It's straight up misleading. Especially for I-95. Solid model consensus on 10-16".
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After years of having the rug pulled out from with under me in CNJ I think this storm is finally going to deliver! All models are now showing a CCB rotting over I-95. This storm has that classic look that you want for storms that produce in the I-95 corridor. I really think this pans out as 10"+ for most of this subform. I can break my like 4-5 year drought of no double digit snowstorms.
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The ICON should never be used in a professional forecast. I use it at most to confirm a trend from the rest of the model suite. As a stand alone solution it is completely useless...
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Attention All Philly Subforum Members
Blizzard-on-GFS replied to Rjay's topic in Philadelphia Region
This subforum was great back in the day but it is now really beyond dead. I frequent the NYC forum much more even though my location doesn't quite align with the discussion. -
My first call map for Sunday night ⛄️
