I know I’m typing to a group of zombies here at this point, but If anyone cares to keep just a flicker of hope alive, from Justin Berk:
“It is Presidents Week, and historically, half of our top 25 snowstorms fall this time of year. So when the computer guidance pointed us to a major storm, it was easy to believe.
That winter storm has had a trend on many models farther south to even miss much of Maryland and PA… My hesitation is that the full energy from the Pacific Ocean is not ingested into the modeling yet. It will today. So if there are any more blips in the projected development and track, they will show up today.
I need to emphasize and consider that weather events that did miss this winter have had one thing in common: They verified farther north than models forecasted. Yes, the prime events did hit south of Baltimore, but the misses were plots too far south. There is a bias to push cold air in too soon AND to push it too far south.
Here is what is weird AND NOT wish-casting…. The Euro and Canadian have it missing south, while the American Models GFS and NAM 12K keep it closer.
The current Euro looks similar to what the GFS did last week. So, is it leading the charge with something now? I also need to point out that a few weeks ago, the Euro had been too far south, and the GFS beat it. I made sure to acknowledge this in my storm report, so all bets are not off.
The model run this morning should include the needed energy. By mid-day, I will personally have a better idea if this will be a hit or miss and make my first call”.