I'll be on the road from the South Shore back to ASH Sunday afternoon so kind of hoping for a more GFS-like solution. I just don't see the appeal of advisory snow followed by the kitchen sink.
Interesting evolution on the NAM. Decent front end thump then kind of dries out Sunday AM and flips to light mix/rain for most then the secondary gets going Sunday PM and we get the scalping.
Still a significant number of GEFS and EPS members that bring a 980 mb low to Plattsburgh instead of completing the transfer. 12z going to be very interesting.
Ah, I thought 0.5'' was when the power issues started. Agree that 3/8'' is probably doable in the favored spots if things stay the same as they are now. I just don't see a widespread ice storm warning kinda deal.
I think even 0.5'' - 1'' of QPF as ice in a fast moving, moderate to heavy rain type of system isn't going to do it for Phil. A nice wintry appeal and saggy trees but short of .
I do wonder how efficiently ice would accrete on snow-covered branches and power lines. I can’t recall significant QPF as ZR after a few inches of snow.
I see advisory snow + advisory ice as the absolute worst case scenario here. Either give me a foot or 1.5’’ of QPF all ZR. Or rain.
12z GEFS farther NW and warmer for the weekend. Let’s trend this to rains to Maine. A crusty 1-2’’ and toucans and not a crippling, holiday weekend ruining icer.
GFS and ECMWF soundings look good overnight Saturday through early Sunday. Deep saturation through the DGZ. NAM looks like a lot of sand with some periods of decent growth mixed in. Hopefully the NAM is out to lunch.