Voyager

Those areas are Philly/Mt Holly, so not sure. I think they were at 6-8 at one point yesterday for Allentown. I'm in the State College CWA, and a lot of us in our sub-forum felt that they were being extremely bullish with their forecasts despite most of the models showing otherwise. FWIW, this morning, I am already sitting at 33 degrees up here in the coal region between Allentown and Scranton.

Ha. Then I see State College wasn't the only one going big on this one when perhaps they shouldn't have. Even as late as last night, they had the 8-12 inch gradient running through Harrisburg, PA to just north of Allentown, PA which many thought was considerably overdone. Turns out we might have been right as they have backed off considerably with this morning's new forecasts and updates.

That's my thought upon waking up this morning. The temp is still right at 32 so there was only a 3 degree drop since last night. I'd have been much more comfortable if we got down into the mid 20's at least. CTP did lower my totals in the warning text to 4-8 and the probabilistic map from 8-12 to 6-8. Of course, I don't know what 850's are doing, but a surface temp at 32 first thing in the morning is not at all comforting, especially when we probably have about 6 hours until the onset of precipitation. The surface could warm a few degrees such as that by the time the precip starts, we are already in the mid/upper 30's. The air already seems to be saturated, so how much (if any) dynamic cooling could we get?

No they are not. In fact they bumped up little lollypops along I-81 here in the Skook to 12-18.

Thanks. I couldn't screenshot and post the image from my home PC.

Anyone know why Tropical Tidbits and Pivotal Weather are so different in their total snowfall maps for same model run and time? Does one include sleet while the other doesn't? Basically, Pivotal has me at 3 inches @ hour45 and TT and even WxBell above have me at 20 inches.

Still sitting at 35 degrees after a high of 37 this afternoon. Clouds and humidity (it's actually a little bit foggy/hazy here) are probably holding temps up. What implications that has for tomorrow, I don't know...

Nope. He'll just be happy in spite of the rain...lol

Those 30-35 mph gusts after the storm clears out is concerning because anyone who gets significant ice accretion is going to have power issues, and with the severity of the cold, houses will chill rather quickly.

Nope. I'm home....lol

I'll say this. If the NAM were to somehow be correct with both the kuchera snow totals and the ice totals. Say bye bye to Voyager for awhile. Ten inches of snow followed by 1.11 inches of ice would be destruction of an epic proportion. Add in the frigid temps and winds afterwards and the tree and power line damage would be historic. We'd probably be without power for weeks... Thankfully, we've never seen that much ice here, and I highly doubt we'd see it this time, either. The speculation of such a scenario, though, is mind boggling.

Yuppers... https://wnep.com/2019/01/18/emergency-measures-in-place-ahead-of-weekend-winter-weather/

All I can say is that I'm so glad I chose not to go back out on another run yesterday after I returned from North Carolina. If I would have, I'd have likely drawn a 3 day trip somewhere that would have gotten me home late Saturday afternoon or evening. Now with the State of Emergency and the ban on commercial vehicles, I probably wouldn't have gotten home at all, and would have been stuck out for AT LEAST one extra day, alone in a truckstop or rest area somewhere, waiting for the Governor to lift the ban. No thanks. I would rather enjoy this storm from the comforts of home with my wife and family.

Did you all see that CTP went warning region-wide? More north, but for my area back to the Harrisburg area: Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon- Cumberland- Including the cities of Somerset, Bedford, McConnellsburg, Chambersburg, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon, and Carlisle 101 PM EST Fri Jan 18 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations of 6 to 10 inches, with localized amounts up to 12 inches, and ice accumulations of up to two tenths of an inch are expected. * WHERE...South central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 1 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday. Heavy snow will move into the area Saturday afternoon and last into the late evening. A change to sleet and freezing rain will occur during the night. The heaviest of the snow will be from early afternoon through late evening.

If only that low would track DC to Atlantic City...

Don't you know that since the internet and us weenies having access to the models, the programmers put that extra code in there for the models to do that...just to aggravate us. Then they join the forums, and lurk, laughing as we go emotional over each model run.

Shovel it as it flips and keep salting the hell out of it... Honestly, I don't know. That's always been my dilemma in these types of storms. When to shovel for maximum (and safe) effect and the least amount of work.

Gold is also what you need on the NWS probabilistic snow maps as well...if you want to see significant snow anyway.

They seem to be realigning the gradient to a more southwest to northeast trajectory. Last night it was a bit more west to east, and I was in the 8-12 zone. Per their latest map, I'm now in the 6-8 zone, so while some of your totals are increasing, mine are decreasing.

I've yet to figure out where to get and see the 6z/18z Euro output. What sites have it?

Can't say I disagree, but they are going hard after Machado or Harper, so I'd rather have Harper. I think he has more of a team attitude than a me attitude like Machado. As for starting pitchers, who's still available. Keuchel? So as not to go off topic too much, this storm. As is usual around these parts, track and precip types are giving me a headache. One takeaway, it seems, is that even up my way, the best rates are going to be wasted on zr or ip. My NWS point-click has 1-2 inches of "precipitation" during the darkness hours Saturday night/Sunday morning. I'll admit to not digging too deep into the models for other than surface temps and precipitation totals, since I was in the truck, and navigating Tidbits or Pivotal is quite cumbersome on a cell phone. I've mainly been following you guys and the Central PA forum for good information.

I don't pay attention to The Weather Channel, and I really hate the naming of winter storms, so I just now found out that this weekend's storm is named Harper. With that thought in mind, let's go Phillies. Sign Bryce and get it over with...lol

Nope. As of this morning, still the same. I see they upgraded to warnings up along the northern tier, though.

Still snowing lightly, but I didn't get near what some of you got. I put the dog out, and would say there's only about a quarter inch out there. As for the NWS forecast...man, if this was all snow. They won't give me frozen accumulations in the point-click, but for Saturday night, they say 1-2 inches of "precipitation". Too bad most of that in that time frame will be taint.