Ok, I can't delete the @daxx, so it's going to show here, but I selected this part of your post to make a point.
I do believe that the best forecasters go not only by the science of meteorology, but from local experience with microclimates, terrain, and most everything else you mentioned. I don't think you can have one without the other. Case in point, my Debbie Downing summer severe events in my backyard. I know my climo and my terrain, and I know that 90% of the time, the last ridge (that I-81 rides) will eat up a line of storms. Many times, after dropping off said ridge, they reform and nail the Pocs and the Lehigh Valley. I can post with relative certainty, that storms won't be as severe here as in other locations.
Even Sandy can be taken as a case in point for what is the Tamaqua terrain and microclimate. In that storm, we were one of the few areas that DID NOT lose power or have significant wind damage. It was "relatively" calm and benign compared to places just a few miles away. Most of that night, we had some moderate gusts, but all the while, the mountains that surround the town proper were roaring like a lion. I could hear the extreme wind, but not really feel it.
Don't be afraid to post what YOU feel when it comes to YOUR location. Some will take offense, but to me, I think it makes for good discussion. Not everything has to be cut and dry technical.