Sey-Mour Snow
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Everything posted by Sey-Mour Snow
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Getting its act together at 39 may get nam’d here -
Ya nam is like 4 hours slower the public is going to hate us even more if this thing slows down again
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Guidance really varies with start time.. I’d wait til after 00z .. hrrr coming in much slower with thump , euro is the slowest amongst guidance, also these come in earlier usually.. hrrr back a bit SE after being a NW outlier
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Its also two months later now in much better climo so competing factors. This airmass isn’t horrible. SSTs are about 5-10 degrees cooler than mid November.
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This is a totally different system and set up but reminds me of Nov 2018 when he had 7.5” in like 3 hours then freezing drizzle from a SWFE , great positive bust and traffic was a nightmare.
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Keeping our initial bc of what should be a great thump for 4-6 hours .. just a few tweaks on the coast to account for the warmer trends. Not buying on too much from the trailer just yet.
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Pretty cold in 18z flash freeze is crazy for mass even gets down to ct this run
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Verbatim it’s like 3-4pm western ct and 6-7pm far eastern.
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For as far west and warm as hrrr is would still get 6- 10 here and be a pretty epic Saturday evening I’m down for that! Also instead of the heaviest snow while we are sleeping it’s now from 5pm to 11pm.
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Lmao it almost goes up the Hudson before a last second push east
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They are only about 5-10 miles apart by 12z Sunday
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Most guidance has a decent thump for all at least Saturday night.. Take what we can get.. Hopefully someone can cash in with Part 2..
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Lol ya I mean to the average person (not us) those snow depth maps are pretty accurate bc they don’t measure until like hour 12+ probably. But for us the reality probably falls in between the snow depth map and a Kuchera and even 10:1 sometimes, every event is different.
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Real weenies never let it settle. Measure aggressively and often and slant stick when in Rome( I mean Tolland).
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Positive depth chart means nothing to me unless you are 33/34 degrees during daylight and or horrible growth . Take the risk for the real snow and stay in CT.
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Congrats on your paster finally .. Hoping you get a solid foot of wet snow and lose power for 7 days
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Hell of a thump over CT on 12z GFS .. That's our hope several inches Saturday late evening and night would be nice.. Man that's perfect heavy snow in our hood between 5-6pm goes to town until about 1am after about 6-12"
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If you read that quickly it can get really weird lmao
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Ya NAMs are heavy snow to Canada .. Enjoy it. Always fun for a last second positive trend, sucks for us but we can handle it we are more prone and used to it..
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Western NY with a nice surprise potentially too last minute thats like a 100+ mile shift west for them on guidance last several hours .. as usual NAM is lost .. has a nipple low that tries to pull southeast off the delmarva
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Yikes lets see what NAMmys do , that would be 4/4 hi res wagons north if they shoot north again.. or maybe the stablize things and head south
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Just another option on the table ..
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lol ya exactly extremely funky convective look over CT
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Still loading its an outlier now, its over Philly so take it for what it is, its way amped, earlier NW and warm.. LOL 850s are torched from onset in south ct
