Roger Smith

Why do we even have a minus sign on our keyboards? That is the burning question .. +0.3 _ +0.1 _ --0.2 __ --0.4 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 __ +7.0 _ +4.0 _ +6.3 off to deal with the inevitable avalanches

Was there not a very deep low off the NJ coast around March 1-2, 1914?

I may be hopecasting but it feels like this winter is going to ease into some kind of big storm maybe in March. There wasn't much to the winter of 1992-93 before February (one fairly big storm in early December?). Energy seems to be running rather low but the models are starting to amplify. You get the feeling maybe this winter won't go quietly. But it has been one big snoozefest to date, even where I live and we get a lot of snow, it has not been all that active. We have nickel-and-dimed our way to 18" of snow cover but normal here is 24-30".

Predict the temperature anomalies (F deg) relative to 1981-2010 for DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA (deadline 06z Sat Feb 1st) good luck !!

8-12 inch potential on Feb 8th (12z GFS) so maybe this is not over yet.

Updated anomalies and projections: ____________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA (8th) ____ (7d anom) _______ +8.9 _+8.2 _+10.5 __+10.6 _+6.0 _+4.4 __ +7.1 _ --0.9 _+6.6 (15th) ___ (14d anom) _____+10.2_+10.0_+12.3__ +9.2_+10.5 _+5.7 ___ +4.1 _--1.4_ +1.0 (22nd) __ (21d anom) ______ +7.4 _ +6.9 _ +8.8 __ +5.3 _ +8.3 _+6.5 ___ +3.3 _--0.2_ +1.3 (8th) ____ (p14d) ___________ +7.0 _+6.5 _+8.0 __ +5.0 _ +4.0 _ +2.5 __ +3.0 _--1.0 _ +1.0 (15th) ___ (p21d) ___________+5.0 _+5.0 _+5.5 __ +4.0 _+5.0 _+3.0 ___ +1.5 _--1.0 _--0.5 (22nd) __ (p28d) ____________+5.0 _+4.5 _+6.0 __ +3.5 _+5.0 _+4.0 ___ +2.5 __0.0 _+1.8 (8th) ____ (24d) _____________+5.0 _+5.0 _+5.0 __ +1.0 _ +2.0 __0.0 ____0.0 __ 0.0 _ --2.5 (15th) ___ (31d) _____________+3.5 _+3.5 _+3.5 __ +2.0 _+4.0 _+2.0 ___ +2.0 __0.0 _+0.5 (22nd) ___ (31d) ____________ +4.5 _+4.0 _+5.0 __ +3.0 _+4.5 _+3.5 ___ +2.0 __0.0 _+2.0 (end of month final anoms) _ +6.4 _+6.5 _+9.0 __ +6.3 _+5.9 _+4.8 ___ +3.9 _+0.4 _+3.0 __________________ _ _______________ _ __________________ (8th) _ The month has started out very mild in all regions. Much colder air is pressing south from western Canada and will soon be impacting on those positive anomalies in ORD, DEN and SEA. The effects will be weaker or slower to arrive in the east and south. Even in the outlook period (days 8 to 16) the east coast will remain rather mild with occasional colder interludes, while the severe cold in central regions may begin to shift more to eastern Canada. (15th) _ Large positive anomalies have continued to build over central and eastern regions while the west turned quite cold in the second week. Forecasts for this coming week begin to eat away at the larger anomalies and should see them reduced to contest-range values at some point around the 21st. This trend will peter out later in the month with a more variable regime expected. End of month projections show reduced but still fairly sizeable positive anomalies at most locations. (22nd) _ The huge anomalies at mid-month have been somewhat reduced but not by quite as much as predicted a week ago. The trend from now to end of month looks rather close to average January values and a good chunk of the present anomalies will survive. Will post some preliminary scoring based on these estimates which are by and large higher than most forecasts except for western stations. (Feb 1st) _ Sorry to report that life got rather hectic here and I never had a chance to create any provisional scoring. We're now into final scoring territory with the final anomalies rolling in overnight. Will be posting the scoring table soon, it is now final with all the anomalies confirmed (see table above) and the next post for the scores. At least in January I don't have the task of working on the annual scoring table (hurray for January, my favorite month).

Looks like a slowly improving trend over the second half of January from current guidance. No obvious big hits but potential is growing towards end of the current GFS run. I thought this might be a back-loaded winter anyway so if it starts up that quickly, could become epic.

Well I'm old enough to remember the winter of 1966-67, in southern Ontario it was quite a wild ride (I was operating a backyard weather station about 30 miles west of Toronto at that time as a high school senior). November 1966 was very mild and rainy. There was a brief cold spell with a strong arctic high in early December then it warmed briefly to about 60 F. Following that most of late December was rather cold with some snow, not a lot. January 1967 turned very mild in stages, culminating in some record highs on 23rd and 25th. The second of these was again near 60 F. At this point the ground had thawed out and all the previous moderate snow cover was gone. The famous Chicago snowstorm came along the next two days, at my location it was a mixture of rain, sleet, ice pellets and heavy snow with thunder and lightning, quite a storm (we were supposed to write our SAT exams one of those days and it was postponed for a month as a lot of people couldn't get into school). The onset of much colder weather was very fast, after another snowfall of about 7" in early February, it turned bitterly cold and never warmed up much at any point until late March. There was another strong arctic high and record cold morning temperatures on March 17th and 18th. After that it warmed up quite rapidly and records (since broken) were set on the first two days of April. I would think that was one of the most variable winters on record in the region. From what I've seen of the stats from 1905-06 and 1949-50, they ran quite similar in many aspects (I am not quite that old).

Thanks for entering the Jan 2020 contest. Welcome to about half a dozen new and returning forecasters, hope you will continue to participate. And belated thanks to RJay whom I believe has been helping us out through 2019 by pinning these threads on a regular basis. So here are the forecasts. I have added a summary of scoring procedures for the benefit of our new entrants. Your forecasts appear in the same order as DCA forecasts from warmest to coldest, if those are tied, then NYC determines it, etc. Table of forecasts for January 2020 FORECASTER __________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Brian5671 ____________________ +6.0 _ +5.0 _ +4.5 ___ 0.0 _ +6.0 _ +3.0 __ --3.0 _ --4.5 _ --4.0 dwave ________________________ +4.3 _ +4.5 _ +2.2 __ +1.2 _ +1.7 _ +0.3 __ --1.4 _ --2.9 _ --3.0 RodneyS ______________________ +4.3 _ +3.5 _ +3.5 __ +4.2 _ +4.0 _ +3.5 __ +0.2 _ --1.7 _ +0.3 RJay __________________________ +4.2 _ +4.6 _ +4.2 __ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +0.5 __ --1.0 _ --2.2 _ --2.5 wxallannj ______________________+2.8 _ +3.0 _ +2.2 __ +0.7 _ +2.2 _ +1.0 __--0.7 _ --0.6 _ --0.7 yoda __________________________ +2.3 _ +1.8 _ +0.9 __ +0.4 _ +2.2 _ +2.0 __ --1.7 _ --0.7 _ --0.3 Don Sutherland.1 ______________ +2.2 _ +2.4 _ +1.3 __ +1.5 _ +1.0 __ 0.0 __ --1.0 _ --1.5 _ +0.4 BKViking ______________________ +2.2 _ +2.0 _ +1.7 __ +0.5 _ +2.0 _ +1.3 __ --1.0 _ --1.0 _ --1.0 ___ Consensus ________________ +2.2 _ +1.8 _ +1.3 __ +0.7 _ +2.0 _ +1.3 __ -1.0 _ --1.0 _ --0.4 JakkelWx ______________________+2.1 _ +1.8 _ +1.7 __ +0.7 _ +2.3 _ +2.2 __ --1.5 _ --0.2 _ --1.7 wxdude64 _____________________ +1.7 _ +1.2 _ +0.7 __ +0.8 _ +2.1 _ +1.8 __--1.1 _ --0.9 _ --0.6 Roger Smith ___________________ +1.5 _ +1.4 _ +1.2 __ +0.5 _ +2.0 _ +0.2 __ --1.0 _ --1.2 _ --0.5 Tom ___________________________ +1.5 _ +1.1 _ +0.9 __ +1.3 _ +1.8 _ +0.6 __ --0.5 _ --0.2 _ --0.4 hudsonvalley21 ________________ +1.4 _ +1.8 _ +1.1 __ +1.9 _ +1.6 _ +0.3 __ --0.7 _ --0.6 __ 0.0 Scotty Lightning _______________ +1.0 _ +0.5 _ +0.5 ___ 0.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 __ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 rclab __________________________ +0.5 _ --0.5 _ --1.4 __ --0.9 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 __ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.3 ___ Normal ______________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 Rhino16 _______________________ --0.3 _ +0.5 _ +1.0 __ --0.1 _ +1.1 _ +1.3 __ --3.0 _ --2.0 _ +0.7 ____________________________________________________________________ In the table above, highest and lowest forecasts are color coded. Normal is lower for ATL and tied lowest for IAH. Scoring procedures: 1. For most months, scores are based on 100 for a perfect call, less 2 pts per 0.1 error. Scores that would be negative remain zero. 2. For months with anomalies greater than 5.0 (+ or --), the system is similar but for the amount by which the anomaly exceeds 5.0, that portion deducts only one point (at both the low and high ends). Example, you predict +3.5 and outcome is +6.0, your score would be 50 using the first rule, but is boosted by 10 since you lose only one point per 0.1 error from 5.0 to 6.0, making your score 60. Or if you score from zero up, you have 10 points by +1.0 then add another 50 for +2.5 further correct portion. In this way, anyone with the right anomaly sign always gets a non-zero score. If a month ends up with a greater anomaly than +10 (for example, March 2012) then scores are calculated from percentage of anomaly achieved (+8.0 against +12.0 would score 2/3 or 67). 3. If neither of those procedures result in a raw score of 60 or higher from one forecaster, then we go to a "minimum progression" of scores where the closest forecast gets 60, and all others get a pro-rated value down to a zero value for the least accurate forecast. However, any progression score that is lower than your individual raw score would convert to the higher raw score, so you can only gain, not lose, from this rule. As a result of this rule, some forecast always scores at least 60. This month, with 16 forecasts, the step function will be 4 points (60, 56, 52 etc ending in zero). Tied forecasts both or all score the highest of the step values (e.g., three tied for fourth best forecast this month would all get 48 points). 4. Consensus and Normal are scored using all the same rules. Your rank and score assigned, however, is only within the group of forecasters. Consensus and Normal can be allotted intermediate step scores in the progression system, or they may be equal to a forecaster's score. Consensus forecast is the median rather than the mean (to reduce if not eliminate any influence of one or two outliers). I am going to keep track of two scores for Normal, one a contest score, and the other a raw score based on no adjustments from rule one, that way we have a log of the total departure from normal. 5. Late penalties are strictly applied once we get past this month. For 2020, these will be 1% for every four hours or portion late through 36h (possible 9% penalty to 18z 2nd) then a further 1% per hour.

I assume you are asking raindancewx that question, but from my point of view it would not change the outlook. My timing was a bit off, the warming trend in the east began around mid-December rather than early in January. That mid-month reversal happened in other years, notably 1875, 1889, 1936, 1949 and 1964. Most of those were followed by very mild Januaries and first half of Februaries in the east. A general trend towards colder than normal weather late February and March could be noted in those same years. January 1950 was particularly warm in the east and set records in the 70s on the east coast towards the end of the month (25th-26th). Although the lead-in was somewhat different, 1905-06, 1908-09 and 1915-16 as well as 1966-67 converged on the same late January warm signal. Most of those turned a lot colder in February. I think the odds are pretty good that winter 2019-20 will feature a core warm spell with bookend cold periods, and the second phase of cold might be fairly potent when it does arrive. Temperatures in the western Canadian arctic have been running colder than average, so there is a source region available. (-40 at YCB recently).

Not sure how close to the actual count this would be, but Wikipedia currently lists 1,390 confirmed U.S. tornadoes (to Dec 30th) and says the most severe was an EF4 in Alabama on March 2nd.

Will say 1492 and first high risk a major outbreak in the south-central states around Feb 8th-9th.

Hello, just a shout out to all regional forums that the annual temperature forecast contest is underway for 2020, we have a core group of about ten but all of us would like to see a larger turnout, so to encourage that, no late penalties if you take the time to enter on Friday up to 0600z Saturday early morning. Details are in the general interest forum, here's a link (or if you post here I can transfer the forecasts over). Required would be forecasts (anomaly format vs 1981-2010) for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Thanks and good luck with your winter experience. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52869-january-2020-temperature-forecast-contest/

Hello, just a shout out to all regional forums that the annual temperature forecast contest is underway for 2020, we have a core group of about ten but all of us would like to see a larger turnout, so to encourage that, no late penalties if you take the time to enter on Friday up to 0600z Saturday early morning. Details are in the general interest forum, here's a link (or if you post here I can transfer the forecasts over). Required would be forecasts (anomaly format vs 1981-2010) for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Thanks and good luck with your winter experience. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52869-january-2020-temperature-forecast-contest/

Hello, just a shout out to all regional forums that the annual temperature forecast contest is underway for 2020, we have a core group of about ten but all of us would like to see a larger turnout, so to encourage that, no late penalties if you take the time to enter on Friday up to 0600z Saturday early morning. Details are in the general interest forum, here's a link (or if you post here I can transfer the forecasts over). Required would be forecasts (anomaly format vs 1981-2010) for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Thanks and good luck with your winter experience. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52869-january-2020-temperature-forecast-contest/

Hello, just a shout out to all regional forums that the annual temperature forecast contest is underway for 2020, we have a core group of about ten but all of us would like to see a larger turnout, so to encourage that, no late penalties if you take the time to enter on Friday up to 0600z Saturday early morning. Details are in the general interest forum, here's a link (or if you post here I can transfer the forecasts over). Required would be forecasts (anomaly format vs 1981-2010) for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Thanks and good luck with your winter experience. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52869-january-2020-temperature-forecast-contest/

Hello, just a shout out to all regional forums that the annual temperature forecast contest is underway for 2020, we have a core group of about ten but all of us would like to see a larger turnout, so to encourage that, no late penalties if you take the time to enter on Friday up to 0600z Saturday early morning. Our top two forecasters for the 2019 contest year were Mid Atl forum members, wxdude64 and RodneyS. Details are in the general interest forum, here's a link (or if you post here I can transfer the forecasts over). Required would be forecasts (anomaly format vs 1981-2010) for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Thanks and good luck with your winter experience. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52869-january-2020-temperature-forecast-contest/

Hello, just a shout out to all regional forums that the annual temperature forecast contest is underway for 2020, we have a core group of about ten but all of us would like to see a larger turnout, so to encourage that, no late penalties if you take the time to enter on Friday up to 0600z Saturday early morning. From this forum we have a couple of regular entrants, Scotty Lightning and Tom. Details are in the general interest forum, here's a link (or if you post here I can transfer the forecasts over). Required would be forecasts (anomaly format vs 1981-2010) for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Thanks and good luck with your winter experience. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52869-january-2020-temperature-forecast-contest/

Hello, just a shout out to all regional forums that the annual temperature forecast contest is underway for 2020, we have a core group of about ten but all of us would like to see a larger turnout, so to encourage that, no late penalties if you take the time to enter on Friday up to 0600z Saturday early morning. Several well known NYC forum members are regulars, including Don Sutherland, wxallannj, BKViking and hudsonvalley21. Details are in the general interest forum, here's a link (or if you post here I can transfer the forecasts over). Required would be forecasts (anomaly format vs 1981-2010) for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Thanks and good luck with your winter experience. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52869-january-2020-temperature-forecast-contest/

Hello, just a shout out to all regional forums that the annual temperature forecast contest is underway for 2020, we have a core group of about ten but all of us would like to see a larger turnout, so to encourage that, no late penalties if you take the time to enter on Friday up to 0600z Saturday early morning. Details are in the general interest forum, here's a link (or if you post here I can transfer the forecasts over). Required would be forecasts (anomaly format vs 1981-2010) for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Thanks and good luck with your winter experience. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52869-january-2020-temperature-forecast-contest/

Hello, just a shout out to all regional forums that the annual temperature forecast contest is underway for 2020, we have a core group of about ten but all of us would like to see a larger turnout, so to encourage that, no late penalties if you take the time to enter on Friday up to 0600z Saturday early morning. Details are in the general interest forum, here's a link (or if you post here I can transfer the forecasts over). Required would be forecasts (anomaly format vs 1981-2010) for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Thanks and good luck with your winter experience. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52869-january-2020-temperature-forecast-contest/

Well we have a soccer team at least (eleven entrants including all nine of the hardy crew). I am going to extend the free entry period one more day and post notices on all subforums, to see if we can encourage a few more entries. Post your own words of encouragement on my invitation threads, it might help. You can edit your forecasts too, I won't look at anything for a table of entries until Saturday.

You may have bobbed your head but I think I lost both shoes and ran into the guy who rings the bell for the last lap or maybe just took a javelin in the back.

< Final results ... The total scores for 1st and 2nd place are only 8 points apart. Given the number of points, and forecasts made over the year, in scientific terms this amounts to a tie, I wish we had a more decisive result but it is what it is, and congratulations to both wxdude64 and RodneyS for a great year of forecasting. I will go over everything to verify this close result, but in terms of the November totals being valid and December scoring accurate, I found no errors there, so will be checking back over the tables, will confirm or amend as necessary within a day or so. Scoring is backed up by an excel file, if there are any errors they will be more likely transcription than scoring errors. > <<<<< ===== ----- ----- ----- Annual Contest Scoring Jan - Dec 2019 ----- ----- ----- ===== >>>>>   A new look for the annual table this year, will continue with the all nine format of monthly scoring. Best score tallies will be handled in a separate table. From now to end of 2019, best scores will be tabulated for the eleven regular participants and this will continue with any new or temporary additions getting best scores in addition to those. Highest cumulative scores are shown in red in this table (for nine locations) or bold for subtotals.  FORECASTER _________DCA_NYC_BOS __east__ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent ___ c/e ___ DEN_PHX_SEA __west___all 9 TOTAL wxdude64 ____________825 _950 _779 __2554 __724 _666_885__2275 __4829 __ 671 _850 _764 __2285 ___7114 RodneyS ______________731 _892 _787__2410 __716 _687 _914__2317 __4727 __ 755 _852 _772 __ 2379___ 7106 ___ Consensus ________777_ 950 _810 __2537__672 _682 _884 __2238 __4775 __ 625 _860 _780__2265 ____7040 DonSutherland.1 ______709 _924 _729 __2362 __663 _710 _920 __2293 __4655 __ 631 _902_ 794__2327____ 6982 wxallannj _____________757 _860 _840 __2457 __612 _749 _862 __2223 __ 4680__ 585 _844 _774 __2203____ 6883 BKViking _____________ 802 _899 _830 __2531 __617 _606 _807 __2030 __4561 __ 593 _815 _788 __2196 ____6757* hudsonvalley21 _______716 _948 _886 __2550 __600 _698 _856 __2154 __4704 __ 449 _832 _728 __2009____ 6713 Roger Smith __________ 776 _834 _750 __2360__641 _609 _770 __2020 __4380 __ 746 _808 _704 __2258 ____6638 Scotty Lightning_______707 _890 _785 __2382 __637 _667 _878 __2182 __4564 __ 459 _784 _642 __1885 ____6449 Tom __________________615 _837 _687 __2139 __651 _553 _860 __2064 __4203 __ 559 _834 _739 __2132 ____6335  ___ Normal ___________492 _840 _670 __2002 __613 _430 _804 __1847 __3849 __ 470 _823 _569__1862 ____5711 Stebo (4/12) __________ 283 _327 _310 __ 920 __242 _219 _275 __ 736 __ 1656 __ 227 _217 _125 ___ 569 ___ 2225 RJay (4/12) ___________ 162 _246 _216 __ 624 __256 _185 _288 __ 729 __ 1353 __ 263 _279 _188 ___ 730 ___ 2083 Jakkelwx (2/12) _______150 __148 __ 66 __ 364 __ 54 _107 _108 __ 269 ___ 633 ___ 80 _186 _152 ___ 418 ___ 1051 tplbge (1/12) ___________ 90 __ 94 __ 78 __ 262 __ 46 __ 80 _ 100 __ 226 ___ 492 ___ 72 __ 88 __32 ___ 192 ____ 684 Orangeburgwx (1/12) ___ 50 __ 90 __ 78 __ 218 __ 88 __ 60 __ 80 __ 228 ___ 446 ___ 60 __100__ 76 ___ 236 ____682 smerby (1/12) __________ 94 __ 78 __ 48 __ 220 __ 22 __ 90 _100 __ 212 ___ 432 ___ 50 __ 82 __ 96 ___ 228 ____ 660  _______________________________________________________________________ * with 180 points deducted for late penalties over the contest year, total would have been 6937, no other regulars would have moved up to a different rank with their smaller late penalties added in.  Best scores in each category _ (nine locations, three regional subtotals, and central-eastern or "original six" subtotal (c/e) as well as all nine).  _ These are best scores in each monthly contest, best total scores are highlighted in the table above in red. Order for best scores will be based on rank in table above. _ from July best scores with * are regular forecaster high scores, wxdude64 for IAH (Smerby, con as shown for IAH), and BKV, wxallannj for PHX (jakkelwx higher) also ___ Tom for west total (jakkelwx higher). In Dec, BKViking and hudsonvalley add one win (SEA) where jakkelwx (2nd contest entered) had a higher score. _ from October, best scores with ^ are regular forecaster high scores, as Orangeburgwx had high scores for BOS, ORD, cent/east, PHX and month of October. Those count for both Orangeburgwx and the regular forecaster with high score in each case. ATL and central subregion will be a tie between DonS and Orangeburgwx so no ^ symbol needed there. (all these are provisional at the moment).  FORECASTER _________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west___all nine  wxdude64 (24) _________ 3 ___0 ___1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ___1 ___2*____2 ____ 1 ____ 2 ___2 ___3 ___ 2 ____ 2 __ MAR, JUN RodneyS (29) __________ 1 ___1 ___1 ____ 3 ____ 4 ___1 ___2 ____ 3 ____ 2 ____ 4 ___2 ___1 ___ 2 ____ 2 _ APR,MAY  ___Consensus (5) ______1 ___0 ___1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___0 ___1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 DonSutherland.1 (17) ___0 ___2 ___1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___1 ___1 ____ 2 ____ 2^____0 ___2 ___3 ___ 1 ____ 1^ __ OCT^ wxallannj (19) __________ 1 ___2 ___1 ____ 1____ 0 ___4 ___2 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___2*___1 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___ DEC BKViking (8) ____________1 ___0 ___1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___0 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___1*___1*___2 ____ 0 hudsonvalley21 (14) ____ 1 ___4 ___2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___1 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___0 ___2*___ 1 ____ 1 __ JAN Roger Smith (42) ________6 ___2 ___2 ____ 5 ____ 4 ___4 ___1 ____ 3 ____ 3 ____ 3 ___3^___1 ___ 2 ____ 3 __ JUL, SEP, NOV Scotty Lightning (14) ____ 1 ___1 ___2 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___0 ___2 ____ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ___1 ___1 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ AUG Tom (10) _______________ 0 ___2 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___0 ___2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___1 ___1 ___ 2* ___ 0 ___ Normal (10) ________ 1 ___3 ___1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___0 ___2 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0  Stebo (5) ______________1 ___0 ___1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___0 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___ FEB  RJay (3) _______________0 ___0 ___1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___0 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0  jakkelwx (4) ___________ 0 ___0 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___0 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___2 ___1 ___ 1 ____ 0 Orangeburgwx (7) ______ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____1 ___1 ___0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___ OCT smerby (2) _____________ 0 ___1 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___0 ___1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 The number in brackets beside forecaster names shows total best forecasts.  __________________________________________________________________________________  Extreme forecasts   FINAL STANDINGS for 2019 Roger Smith _________27-8 (3 _/) RodneyS ____________ 13-5 wxallannj ____________11-2 wxdude64 ___________ 9-0 DonSutherland1 ______8-0 hudsonvalley21 ______ 7-1 (1 _/) BKViking ____________ 6-0**^% Scotty Lightning ______6-1 Normal ______________ 6-1 Orangeburgwx _______ 5-2 Tom _________________ 4-1 Stebo ________________3-1 Jakkelwx ____________ 2-0 RJay ________________ 1-0 tplbge _______________1-0  *retained as Jakkelwx played fewer than three.  ^ no decision for BOS, SEA in Aug (highest raw score reduced by late penalty) ^ also no decision for PHX (Sep) same reason. % also no decision for PHX (Oct) same reason. _/ ... Roger Smith (Oct) has three wins among regular forecasters but Orangeburgwx has higher scores and wins for those also. Hudsonvalley21 (BOS) same reason for symbol. ... ... The other win for Orangeburgwx was a tie with DonS (ATL) so this symbol is not needed for that. ... ... IAH was scored an extreme forecast in Oct because it would have qualified among regular forecasters. There was a win-loss situation and Orangeburgwx shared a loss (with RS) although if he were a regular participant the outcome would not have qualified. (third coldest forecast of Tom, and Normal, shared a win).

Thanks for those entries, please note the later deadline just this month, which would allow you to edit these numbers any time before Jan 3rd 06z (Thursday evening or 0100h EST Friday). I may take advantage of that but for now ... +1.5 _ +1.4 _ +1.2 ___ +0.5 _ +2.0 _ +0.2 ___ --1.0 _ --1.2 _ --0.5