Roger Smith

<<<<< ===== ----- ----- ----- Annual Contest Scoring Jan - Oct 2019 ----- ----- ----- ===== >>>>>   A new look for the annual table this year, will continue with the all nine format of monthly scoring. Best score tallies will be handled in a separate table. From now to end of 2019, best scores will be tabulated for the eleven regular participants and this will continue with any new or temporary additions getting best scores in addition to those. Highest cumulative scores are shown in red in this table (for nine locations) or bold for subtotals. (note edit on Nov 23 was to fix errors in Consensus which was not updated when the rest of the scores were updated).  FORECASTER _________DCA_NYC_BOS __east__ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent __ c/e ___ DEN_PHX_SEA __west___all 9 TOTAL  RodneyS ______________609 _760 _667__2036 __617 _592 _778__1987__4023 __ 641 _688 _658 __ 1987___ 6010 ___ Consensus ________673_ 818 _682 __2173__618 _581 _758 __1957 __4130 __ 541 _676 _650 __1867 ____5997  DonSutherland.1 _______607 _810 _607 __2024 __595 _592 _772 __1959 __3983 __ 547 _712_ 686__1945____ 5928 wxdude64 _____________677 _796 _635 __2108 __645 _533 _729 __1907 __ 4015 __ 561 _670 _656 __1887 ___5902 Roger Smith ___________ 692 _722 _670 __2084 __576 _515 _700 __1791 __3875 __ 678 _648 _638 __1964____5839 wxallannj ______________655 _736 _712 __2103 __534 _643 _734 __1911 __ 4014__ 481 _678 _646 __1805____ 5819 hudsonvalley21 ________632 _754 _752__2238 __575 _603 _754 __1932 __4170 __ 365 _672 _582 __1619____ 5789 BKViking ______________ 682 _789 _682 __2153 __580 _515 _705 __1800 __3953 __ 481 _629 _644 __1754 ____5707 Scotty Lightning________585 _752 _655 __1992 __580 _592 _738 __1910 __3902 __ 385 _616 _524 __1525 ____5427 Tom ___________________517 _715 _561 __1793 __623 _454 _746 __1823 __3616 __ 459 _656 _607 __1722 ____5338  ___ Normal ____________ 410 _732 _560 __1702 __598 _360 _714 __1672 __3374 __ 386 _683 _471__1540 ____4914 Stebo (4/10) ___________ 283 _327 _310 __ 920 __242 _219 _275 __ 736 __ 1656 __ 227 _217 _125 ___ 569 ___ 2225 RJay (4/10) ____________ 162 _246 _216 __ 624 __256 _185 _288 __ 729 __ 1353 __ 263 _279 _188 ___ 730 ___ 2083 tplbge (1/10) ____________ 90 __ 94 __ 78 __ 262 __ 46 __ 80 _ 100 __ 226 ___ 492 ___ 72 __ 88 __32 ___ 192 ____ 684 Orangeburgwx (1/10) ____ 50 __ 90 __ 78 __ 218 __ 88 __ 60 __ 80 __ 228 ___ 446 ___ 60 __100__ 76 ___ 236 ____ 682 smerby (1/10) ___________ 94 __ 78 __ 48 __ 220 __ 22 __ 90 _100 __ 212 ___ 432 ___50 __ 82 __ 96 ___ 228 ____ 660 Jakkelwx (1/10) _________ 92 __ 68 __ 30 __ 190 __ 50 __ 82 __ 68 __ 200 ___ 390___ 80 __ 90 __ 88 ___ 258 ____ 648  _______________________________________________________________________  Best scores in each category _ (nine locations, three regional subtotals, and central-eastern or "original six" subtotal (c/e) as well as all nine).  _ These are best scores in each monthly contest, best total scores are highlighted in the table above in red. Order for best scores will be based on rank in table above. _ from July best scores with * are regular forecaster high scores, wxdude64 for IAH (Smerby, con as shown for IAH), and BKV, wxallannj for PHX (jakkelwx higher) also ___ Tom for west total (jakkelwx higher). _ from October, best scores with ^ are regular forecaster high scores, as Orangeburgwx had high scores for BOS, ORD, cent/east, PHX and month of October. Those count for both Orangeburgwx and the regular forecaster with high score in each case. ATL and central subregion will be a tie between DonS and Orangeburgwx so no ^ symbol needed there. (all these are provisional at the moment).  FORECASTER _________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west___all nine  RodneyS _______________ 1 ___1 ___1 ____ 3 ____ 3 ___1 ___2 ____ 3 ____ 2 ____ 3 ___2 ___1 ___ 2 ____ 2 _ APR,MAY  ___Consensus__________1 ___0 ___1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___0 ___1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 DonSutherland.1 ________0 ___1 ___1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___1 ___1 ____ 2 ____ 2^____0 ___1 ___3 ___ 1 ____ 1^ __ OCT^ wxdude64 ______________ 2 ___0 ___0 ____ 2 ____ 1 ___0 ___1*____2 ____ 1 ____ 2 ___1 ___3 ___ 1 ____ 2 __ MAR, JUN Roger Smith ____________ 5 ___1 ___2 ____ 4 ____ 3 ___3 ___1 ____ 2 ____ 2 ____ 3 ___3^___1 ___ 2 ____ 2 __ JUL, SEP wxallannj _______________ 1 ___2 ___1 ____ 1____ 0 ___3 ___1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___1*___1 ___ 0 ____ 0 hudsonvalley21 _________ 1 ___4 ___1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___1 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 ____ 1 __ JAN BKViking ________________0 ___0 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___0 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___1*___0 ___0 ____ 0 Scotty Lightning ________ 1 ___1 ___2 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___0 ___2 ____ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ___1 ___1 ___ 0 ____ 0 __ AUG Tom ____________________ 0 ___2 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___0 ___2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___1 ___1 ___ 2* ___ 0 ___ Normal _____________ 1 ___3 ___1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___0 ___2 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0  Stebo __________________1 ___0 ___1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___0 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___ FEB  RJay ___________________0 ___0 ___1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___0 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 Orangeburgwx _________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____1 ___1 ___0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___ OCT smerby _________________0 ___1 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___0 ___1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0  jakkelwx _______________ 0 ___0 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___0 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 1 ____ 0  __________________________________________________________________________________  Extreme forecasts    STANDINGS to date in 2019 Roger Smith _________23-7 (3 _/) RodneyS ____________ 11-4 DonSutherland1 ______ 8-0 wxallannj ____________ 7-2 Scotty Lightning ______6-1 Normal ______________ 6-1 wxdude64 ___________ 5-0 hudsonvalley21 _______5-0 (1 _/) Orangeburgwx _______ 5-2 Tom _________________ 4-1 Stebo ________________3-1 BKViking ____________ 2-0*^% RJay ________________ 1-0  tplbge _______________1-0  Jakkelwx ____________1-0  *retained if Jakkelwx plays fewer than three.  ^ no decision for BOS, SEA in Aug (highest raw score reduced by late penalty) ^ also no decision for PHX (Sep) same reason. % also no decision for PHX (Oct) same reason. _/ ... Roger Smith (Oct) has three wins among regular forecasters but Orangeburgwx has higher scores and wins for those also. Hudsonvalley (BOS) same reason for symbol. ... ... The other win for Orangeburgwx was a tie with DonS (ATL) so this symbol is not needed for that. ... ... IAH was scored an extreme forecast in Oct because it would have qualified among regular forecasters. There was a win-loss situation and Orangeburgwx shared a loss (with RS) although if he were a regular participant the outcome would not have qualified. (third coldest forecast of Tom, and Normal, shared a win).  ______________________________________________________________________________

As of October 28th, October had scored 4/1/0 and the seasonal count was 16/6/3. (edit, on 30th STS Rebekah was named so now we are at 5/1/0 and seasonal 17/6/3. (edit, in mid-November Sebastien was named so now the seasonal count is 18/6/3. There is some chance that Sebastien will briefly become a marginal hurricane. The previous alternate scoring for Nov-Dec 0/0/0 is changed to 1/1/0 with the main scoring table continuing to he based on 1/0/0.) Scoring for October is out of ten points maximum. The October scores can be seen in the table below which adds in all other months scored to date, your current seasonal score if November verifies at 1/0/0 and your Nov-Dec score (out of 2 points) if that happens. Nov-Dec error deductions are half the rate for most months, like June and July. You might end up scoring higher if you have a different forecast from 1/0/0 in Nov-Dec and that verifies instead. Table 2 below the main table showed the same thing for 0/0/0 outcomes. As of Nov 20 it was changed to the now relevant 1/1/0 outcome. (edit, this part has been resolved now) ... But keep in mind that October might not be a done deal yet as there is a 20% chance shown for the mid-Atlantic low (which is now Rebekah) and there could always be something popping up in the Caribbean. It would have to be named by Nov 1 03z to get onto the October count though. Provisional scoring for 2019 Hurricane / tropical storm forecast contest Scoring now assumes 5/1/0 the final count for October, 1/0/0 for Nov-Dec and 18/6/3 the seasonal count. This table will be adjusted if necessary going forward. FORECASTER ________ season __ Jun __ Jul __ Aug __ Sep __ Oct __ N-D ___ months (max 50)___TOTAL (max 100) Ineedsnow ____________ 48 ______ 2.5 __ 5.5 __ 12.0 __ 13.0 __ 9.0 __ 1.5 ___ 43.5 _______________ 91.5 __ Contest normal _____ 44 ______ 3.5 __ 5.5 __ 10.0 __ 13.0 __ 5.0 __ 1.5 ___ 38.5 _______________ 82.5 snowlover2 ____________46 ______ 3.5 __ 4.0 __ 11.0 __ 13.0 __ 3.0 __ 1.5 ___ 36.0 _______________ 82.0 North Arlington 101 ____46 ______ 3.5 __ 4.5 __ 11.0 __ 12.0 __ 3.0 __ 2.0 ___ 36.0 _______________ 82.0 hlcater ________________ 42 ______ 3.5 __ 6.0 __ 10.0 __ 12.0 __ 6.0 __ 2.0 ___ 39.5 _______________ 81.5 NCforecaster89 _______ 44 ______ 3.5 __ 5.5 __ 11.0 ___ 9.0 __ 6.0 __ 2.0 ___ 37.0 _______________ 81.0 __ consensus __________43 ______ 3.5 __ 5.5 __ 11.0 __ 12.0 __ 3.0 __ 2.0 ___ 37.0 _______________ 80.0 stormlover74 __________41 ______ 4.0 __ 5.0 __ 10.0 __ 12.0 __ 6.0 __ 2.0 ___39.0 _______________ 80.0 __ NHC (high end) _____ 40 ______ 3.5 __ 5.5 __ 10.0 __ 12.0 __ 5.0 __ 1.5 ___ 37.5 _______________ 77.5 cyclonic fury __________ 39 ______ 4.0 __ 5.5 __ 10.0 __ 12.0 __ 4.0 __ 2.0 ___ 37.5 _______________ 76.5 RJay __________________ 41 ______ 3.5 __ 5.5 ___ 8.0 __ 12.0 __ 3.0 __ 2.0 ___ 34.0 _______________ 75.0 Julian Colton __________ 38 ______ 4.0 __ 5.5 ___ 9.0 __ 10.0 __ 5.0 __ 1.0 ___ 34.5 _______________ 72.5 __ CSU (June fcst) _____ 34 ______ 3.5 __ 5.5 __ 11.0 __ 12.0 __ 4.0 __1.5 ___ 37.5 _______________ 71.5 yoda __________________ 33 ______ 3.5 __ 6.0 __ 10.0 __ 10.0 __ 7.0 __ 1.5 ___ 38.0 _______________ 71.0 A few Univ b n _________ 34 ______ 3.5 __ 5.5 ___ 9.0 __ 10.0 __ 3.0 __ 2.0 ___ 33.0 _______________ 67.0 Stebo _________________ 40 ______ 3.5 __ 4.0 __ 11.0 ___ 2.0 __ 3.0 __ 2.0 ___ 25.5 _______________ 65.5 Roger Smith ___________ 27 ______ 3.0 __ 6.0 ___ 8.0 __ 14.0 __ 5.0 __ 2.0 ___ 38.0 _______________ 65.0 __ NHC (median) ______ 29 ______ 3.5 __ 5.5 __ 11.0 ___ 9.0 __ 3.0 __ 1.5 ___ 33.5 _______________ 62.5 yotaman ______________ 33 ______ 3.5 __ 5.5 __ 11.0 ___ 4.0 __ 3.0 __ 2.0 ___ 29.0 _______________ 62.0 (Alternate version for Nov-Dec 1/1/0 and seasonal 18/7/3) FORECASTER ________ season __ Jun __ Jul __ Aug __ Sep __ Oct __ N-D ___ months (max 50)___TOTAL (max 100) Ineedsnow ____________ 49 ______ 2.5 __ 5.5 __ 12.0 __ 13.0 __ 9.0 __ 1.0 ___ 43.0 _______________ 92.0 __ Contest normal _____ 47 ______ 3.5 __ 5.5 __ 10.0 __ 13.0 __ 5.0 __ 1.0 ___ 37.5 _______________ 84.5 snowlover2 ____________47 ______ 3.5 __ 4.0 __ 11.0 __ 13.0 __ 3.0 __ 1.0 ___ 35.5 _______________ 82.5 North Arlington 101 ____47 ______ 3.5 __ 4.5 __ 11.0 __ 12.0 __ 3.0 __ 1.5 ___ 35.5 _______________ 82.5 hlcater ________________ 43 ______ 3.5 __ 6.0 __ 10.0 __ 12.0 __ 6.0 __ 1.5 ___ 39.0 _______________ 82.0 NCforecaster89 _______ 45 ______ 3.5 __ 5.5 __ 11.0 ___ 9.0 __ 6.0 __ 1.5 ___ 36.5 _______________ 81.5 __ consensus __________44 ______ 3.5 __ 5.5 __ 11.0 __ 12.0 __ 3.0 __ 1.5 ___ 36.5 _______________ 80.5 __ NHC (high end) _____ 42 ______ 3.5 __ 5.5 __ 10.0 __ 12.0 __ 5.0 __ 1.0 ___ 37.0 _______________ 79.0 stormlover74 __________39 ______ 4.0 __ 5.0 __ 10.0 __ 12.0 __ 6.0 __ 1.0 ___38.5 _______________ 77.5 RJay __________________ 44 ______ 3.5 __ 5.5 ___ 8.0 __ 12.0 __ 3.0 __ 1.5 ___ 33.5 _______________ 77.5 Julian Colton __________ 41 ______ 4.0 __ 5.5 ___ 9.0 __ 10.0 __ 5.0 __ 1.5 ___ 35.0 _______________ 76.0 cyclonic fury __________ 38 ______ 4.0 __ 5.5 __ 10.0 __ 12.0 __ 4.0 __ 1.5 ___ 37.0 _______________ 75.0 yoda __________________ 34 ______ 3.5 __ 6.0 __ 10.0 __ 10.0 __ 7.0 __ 1.0 ___ 37.5 _______________ 71.5 Roger Smith ___________ 33 ______ 3.0 __ 6.0 ___ 8.0 __ 14.0 __ 5.0 __ 1.5 ___ 37.5 _______________ 70.5 __ CSU (June fcst) _____ 33 ______ 3.5 __ 5.5 __ 11.0 __ 12.0 __ 4.0 __1.0 ___ 37.0 _______________ 70.0 A few Univ b n _________ 37 ______ 3.5 __ 5.5 ___ 9.0 __ 10.0 __ 3.0 __ 1.5 ___ 32.5 _______________ 69.5 Stebo _________________ 44 ______ 3.5 __ 4.0 __ 11.0 ___ 2.0 __ 3.0 __ 1.5 ___ 25.0 _______________ 64.0 yotaman ______________ 36 ______ 3.5 __ 5.5 __ 11.0 ___ 4.0 __ 3.0 __ 1.0 ___ 28.0 _______________ 64.0 __ NHC (median) ______ 28 ______ 3.5 __ 5.5 __ 11.0 ___ 9.0 __ 3.0 __ 1.0 ___ 33.0 _______________ 61.0

The 2019 temperature forecast contest approaches its conclusion with this second-last month ... predict temperature anomalies (relative to 1981-2010 normal values) in F deg for DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA and also, as in previous years, there's an independent second contest to enter, winter snowfall which applies to all the same locations except ATL, IAH and PHX, for those, we substitute in DTW, BUF and BTV. Entrants should predict to nearest tenth of inch the winter 2019-2020 snowfall at the nine locations DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ BTV _ SEA including what may have already fallen at some locations, through to the end of May (or if necessary June 2020, the official season runs July 1 to June 30 but in practice is September to May). You don't have to enter the temperature contest to take part in the snowfall contest. But you can enter both either at the same time, or by later entry into the snowfall portion. Deadlines for the temperature forecast contest will be the usual on-time deadline of 06z on 1st, with late penalties thereafter. For the snowfall contest, you have basically most of November with the deadline falling on the 22nd. I will send any temperature forecast entrants a reminder if they don't produce a snowfall contest entry by Nov 20th. Good luck !!

Final scoring for October, 2019 ^ Scoring for DEN uses the "maximum 60" rule and all scores are boosted. DCA qualified for this also (highest raw score was 58) but only the top score was improved by the minimum progression so all other scores are natural since they are higher than the mercy rule method. ATL scores were also subject to the max 60 although the two top scores went up only one point from 59 to 60 and all the rest were higher by the regular scoring procedure anyway. FORECASTER _________________________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTAL Orangeburgwx __________________________ 50 _ 90 _ 78 __ 218 __ 88 _ 60^_ 80 ___ 228 __ 446 __ 60^_100_ 76 ___236 _____ 682 DonSutherland.1 ________________________ 56 _ 84 _ 60 __ 200 __ 56 _ 60^_ 80 ___196 __ 396 __ 42^_ 68 _ 80 ___ 190 _____ 586 wxdude64 ______________________________ 60^_ 74 _ 46 __ 180 __ 60 _ 47 _ 78 ___ 185 __ 365 __ 36^_ 76 _ 94 ___ 206 _____ 571 BKViking _______ (-1%) __________________ 36 _69*_ 51*__ 156 __ 55*_ 41 _ 85*___ 181 __ 337 __ 36^_ 75*_ 93*__ 204 _____ 541 ___ Consensus __________________________ 46 _ 68 _ 49 ___ 162 __ 56 _ 49 _ 82 ___ 187 __ 349 __ 36^_ 68 _ 84 ___ 188 ______ 537 wxallannj _______________________________ 42 _ 64 _ 50 __ 156 __ 52 _ 49 _ 82 ___ 183 __ 339 __ 24^_ 64 _ 88 ___ 176 _____ 515 Roger Smith ____________________________ 32 _ 54 _ 36 __ 122 __ 74 _ 00 _ 64 ___ 138 __ 260 __ 54^_ 98 _ 90 ___ 242 _____ 502 hudsonvalley21 _________________________ 56 _ 92 _ 74 __ 222 __ 56 _ 29 _ 82 ___ 167 __ 389 __ 06^_ 60 _ 40 ___ 106 _____ 495 Tom ____________________________________ 30 _ 50 _ 34 __ 114 __ 70 _ 17 _ 94 ___ 181 __ 295 __ 48^_ 58 _ 62 ___ 168 _____ 463 RodneyS ________________________________ 54 _ 64 _ 38 __ 156 __ 20 _ 51 _ 48 ___ 119 __ 275 __ 24^_ 70 _ 62 ___ 156 _____ 431 ___ Normal ______________________________08 _ 40 _ 32 __ 080 __ 66 _ 00 _ 94 ___ 160 __ 240 __ 45^_ 82 _ 60 ___ 187 _____ 427 Scotty Lightning _________________________28 _ 60 _ 42 __ 130 __ 56 _ 19 _ 76 ___ 151 __ 281 __ 12^_ 52 _ 60 ___ 124 _____ 405 ==================================================================================== * = 1% late penalty deductions ^ (DEN) scoring by rule of maximum score 60, top raw score was only 30 there. DCA only top score needed adjustment from 58 to 60, all other raw scores higher than minimum progression, ATL also subject to same method as anomaly +5.1 but once again only top scores marginally boosted from 59 to 60.. Extreme Forecasts All locations are now in the running for an extreme forecast. DCA (+4.6) goes to wxdude64 (+2.5) for the win. NYC (+3.0) goes to hudsonvalley21 (+2.6) for the win. BOS (+3.4) goes to Orangeburgwx (+2.3) and hudsonvalley21 (+2.1) as full-time participant. ORD (-1.7) goes to Orangeburgwx (-1.1) and Roger Smith (-0.4) as full-time participant. ATL (+5.1) goes to DonSutherland1 and Orangeburgwx (tied +3.0). IAH (+0.3) has dropped close to qualifying zone, will count it (among only regulars, would be a win for Tom and loss for Roger Smith but Orangeburgwx had a lower forecast that would usually disqualify the outcome as high score belongs to third coldest forecast. Also Normal would get a win on this outcome.So it will be shared wins for Tom and Normal, shared loss for Roger S and Orangeburgwx. DEN (-7.2) goes to Orangeburgwx (-2.6) and Roger Smith (-2.0) as full-time participant. PHX (-0.9) counts as a win for both Orangeburgwx (-0.9) and Roger Smith (-1.0). SEA (-2.0) goes to wxdude64 (-1.7) with Orangeburgwx taking a loss (-3.2) and BKV a "no decision" (-1.7, late pen).

Here's a brief summary of my research findings for the 2019-20 winter LRF. This looks like being a "front-loaded" winter that changes from a cold eastern regime in Nov-Dec and possibly early January, to a very mild eastern regime for later parts of January and most of February. This trend would likely continue into March, so a lot of the traditional storm opportunity period for the east coast may be removed from play. However, a front-loaded winter can produce its own brand of memorable winter weather too. Expect the circulation to be dominated by high amplitude ridge-trough coupling with a gradual retrograde component that will cause the mid-winter reversal. The first part of the winter will see frequent incursions of very cold air into the Midwest, Ohio valley, southeastern U.S. and east coast. The storm track will likely run up the coast at times and sometimes from the eastern Gulf to the Great Lakes. Some heavy snowfalls are likely in the eastern half of the U.S. in November and December. Out west it should be relatively dry with a little less than normal coastal rain and mountain snow in general. Around early to mid January this pattern will retrograde allowing the storm track to shift to the plains states towards the upper Great Lakes. Temperatures will rebound to above normal values and there could be a blowtorch effect for the east coast at times. Heavy snow in this phase (mid-Jan into Feb-Mar) would be most likely from higher parts of the desert southwest into northern NM, Colorado then northeast to Minnesota. This part of the winter might see anomalous cold, dry spells over the PNW and western Canada with diminished coastal rainfall and some mountain snows but not enough to reach normal values. Analogues include (Jan) 1932, 1937 and 1950, 1968 and 1969, 1986 and 1990.. This pattern might relax at times to allow modified cold to seep into the Midwest and Great Lakes, setting up a secondary storm track from Missouri to upstate New York. This would not cut off the mild air from the coast but might lead to heavy mixed falls inland from Kentucky to northern New England. Because the energy level will be high for storm development, some memorable storms could occur. During the colder first half of the winter one or two very heavy snowfalls might be expected in the I-95 corridor. Major blizzards might be encountered later in the winter in the central and northern plains states. Looking forward to the other forecasts and won't be too surprised if there would be quite a range of options, as the high-amplitude factor means high risk-reward in terms of placement of features and evolution. In other words, confidence not rated as high going into this, but that's the scenario that my research model has indicated. Best bet for winter storm on the east coast is Dec 25-26. Best bet for record highs in the warmer portion of winter is mid to late February.

Oops, no tie-breaker. But I don;t foresee being tied so there you go. Not looking too bad on the long-range charts for an early end to frost-free season, question might be, would all four go at the same time? Takes a fairly potent cold shot to do that, I would assume, with DCA in such a warmed up location and RIC further south.

Given that voters in most countries are divided on their level of concern about climate change, I think the best political solution is to reshape the paradigm and take climate change out of the equation to some extent, focusing instead on benefits in general from alternative (non-fossil-fuel) energy sources. If there are demonstrable benefits from such a transition, then the climate change issue fades into the background. Another change in political emphasis should be towards mitigation of problems. Whether the alleged problems are caused by AGW, other forms of natural variability, or non-climate factors, these problems need to be addressed. For example, forest fires (or wildfires) are said to be increasing. Maybe they are, maybe not. But more to the point, an advanced society should be able to manage this problem. It is probably more cpmplex than just AGW forcing more fires. There are questions like changing lifestyles (the exurban population increasing rapidly), interface questions, and philosophies about fighting or containing fires. So that sort of climate-related issue can be approached as a self-contained problem that the climate is not a key factor in controlling, in fact it would make a lot of sense to have large changes in our management of the wildfire issue, regardless of what the climate is doing or not doing. To some extent, I think the climate "emergency" is overblown hype, those who peddle it for political gain seem to have no knowledge whatsoever of the range of past weather and climate events. There may be subtle changes as part of AGW, or what we see may be just inevitable natural variability. Either way, it's a safe bet that nothing we do will actually change the future weather observed on our planet by more than a very slight amount. So knowing that, we should have mitigation strategies in place, rather than dealing in these fantasies about paying a tax on carbon to change the weather. That simply isn't going to happen, no matter how many people say so with whatever level of urgency and passion.If the oceans begin to rise in a more dramatic fashion, what can be done about it? Plans must be drawn up for protection or even removal of critical infrastructure, and populations at risk, but only when it becomes apparent that there is no alternative. I don't say this to make denial a policy, I say it because it is the only rational approach. The political parties who deal in a tax-to-solve approach are just deluding themselves and their voters. Their plans cannot possibly work. Mitigation might include diversion of some ocean water into massive desalination/irrigation projects which are needed anyway for other reasons. This is what we should be doing, rather than taxing carbon.

So nice to be able to work at a normally fast speed on this website again, so here's the picture after one week of October ... and it's cold out west, snowing outside my place right now (I am near 4,000 feet up a hill in southern BC but it's quite early for this elevation to get snow, surrounding peaks of 7-8k feet are covered from the last event we had in late September when a foot of snow fell nearby) ... ______________________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA _ 8th ______________ (7d) ______________+8.9 _ +3.6 _ +1.4 ___+3.3 _+13.2 _+6.9 ___ --1.4 _ --0.3 _ --1.4 _15th _____________ (14d) ____________ +6.3 _ +2.9 _ +1.8 ___+0.8 _ +9.1 _ +3.5 ___ --3.8 _ --0.2 _ --2.9 _22nd _____________ (21d) ____________+4.0 _ +1.7 _ +1.8e___+0.6 _ +5.8 _ +3.0 ___ --2.8 _ +0.3 _ --1.8 _29th _____________ (28d) ____________ +4.2 _ +2.5 _ +2.8 ___ --0.4 _ +5.1 _ +1.3 ___ --4.8 _ +0.1 _ --1.5 _ 8th _____________ (p14d) ____________ +2.5 _ +0.3 _ --0.3 ___+1.8 _ +7.5 _ +3.8 ___ --1.5 _ --2.7 _ --1.6 _15th _____________ (p21d) ___________ +3.5 _ +2.0 _ +1.8 ___ +0.5 _ +5.0 _ +2.7 ___ --0.5 _ +0.2 _ --2.0 _22nd _____________ (p28d) ___________+3.2 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 ___ +0.2 _ +4.3 _ +1.8 ___ --2.0 _ +0.8 _ --0.8 _ 8th _____________ (p24d) ____________ +1.5 __ 0.0 _ --0.5 ___ +1.0 _ +4.5 _+2.0 ___ +0.5 _ --1.0 _ --1.5 _22nd ____________ (p31d) ____________+2.0 _ +0.5 __ 0.0 ___ --1.0 _ +3.0 _ +1.0 ___ --1.5 _ +1.0 _ --0.5 _29th _____________ (p31d) ___________ +4.5 _ +3.0 _ +3.0 ___ --1.0 _ +5.5 _ +1.0 ___ --7.0 _ --1.0 _ --2.0 _ 1 Nov ___ final anomalies ___________ +4.6 _ +3.0_ +3.4 ___ --1.6 _ +5.1 _ +0.3___ -7.2 _ --0.9 _ --2.0 The results of the Seasonal Max contest have bee posted in the September thread. 8th _ After a very warm start in the eastern and central regions, the coming week looks more variable so the large positive anomalies will be reduced or largely voided. The west has been running rather cool and this trend appears likely to continue for the coming week. The outlook period from GFS guidance 15th to 24th appears near normal in the east, perhaps a little below normal in central regions, with a warming trend indicated for PHX and DEN, not so much for SEA however. Projections are based on rather conservative estimates a little below average in the east to perhaps 2-3 above in the west. 15th _ Forecast verification was relatively poor, the amount of cold air arriving in central regions was well predicted but it tended to modify faster than expected when it reached the east coast. The average error was therefore 1.9 F deg (generally too cold by that amount). This coming week appears rather close to average in many areas but a bit warmer than average due to a very warm start for DEN, and later warmth in PHX. The extension of the forecast from day 8 to 16 (GFS) proceeds on the assumption of -3 anomalies in the eastern and central regions, including DEN, and slightly above normal in PHX and SEA. These may be rather conservative numbers given the outflow of very cold air from the arctic into the Great Lakes region during the period. Based on -6 anomalies the eastern stations could end up below normal despite current healthy positives. ATL and IAH will be cut back into our forecast range and ORD could fall lower than shown here as well. Our lowest ORD forecast is -1.1. The current scoring estimate for consensus from the provisionals posted above would be 762/900 so there could be some high scoring this month. Will post provisional scoring after 21st update and better handle on end of month changes. 22nd _ This past week the forecasts recovered to a more normal outcome with the average error only 0.5 deg, and DEN accounted for about half of that. This coming week looks rather average in the east and a bit warmer than normal in the west. The last three days of the month are looking very cold in the eastern and central regions and mild out west. Only the DCA provisional has been changed for the preliminary scoring posted a few days ago. It will evidently fall a bit less than anticipated but all these late month decreases are of course subject to the usual GFS caveat about overdoing cold outbreaks that far in advance. 29th _ The past week's forecasts were somewhat off due to the larger ridge-trough signature that developed towards the end of the week. The average error was just over 1.0 deg. However, the projections based on the 8-10d GFS last week have proven to be way out, as the cold air is trapped in central regions and not making a move east until near end of the month. This has resulted in a considerable increase in provisionals for the four stations in the eastern time zone, little change needed for ORD and IAH, but severe cold has set in out west and looks locked in for a few more days, so all three western locations have seen a drop (DEN has snow cover too so the cold is biting with -30 anomalies yesterday and expected the next two days). The chill will extend to PHX and SEA (currently 15 F outside my house in south-central BC). Provisional scoring will be fixed and then some annual scoring updates can be posted later today (may not get to that until evening). Nov 1st _ All final anomalies have now been posted. Scoring will be adjusted until it's finalized by 16z. Check back after that on Friday Nov 1st to see the final results -- you will see table headers change wording to final (from provisional) scoring when all is completed. Looks like the scoring race has tightened up with leader RodneyS losing some ground to DonS and wxdude64. Could be an epic finish this year. A few others are not quite out of the hunt yet, all depends on how November turns out as I see there's a good spread of predictions there.

I think that if there are some potent cold shots early in the season (Oct-Nov) it may signal a variable winter to follow, as is often the case, with roughly equal mild or cold spells in the main winter months. I've said elsewhere that the most likely storm track this winter would be something like OK-TN-MD/sPA-seMA and this would imply a variety of storm types for the Mid Atlantic region. The odds would favour one or perhaps two significant winter storms for your region but the core of above normal snowfalls would be north of that storm track, for the northeast, inland PA, n NJ, most of NY and New England. This is of course just amplifying the normal regional outcome, but within that framework, at least I;m not seeing much chance of a blowtorch or dry winter.

Table of forecasts for October 2019 FORECASTER ___________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA wxdude64 ______________________________ +2.5 _ +1.7 _ +0.7 ___ +0.3 _ +2.4 _ +1.4 ___ +0.5 _ +0.3 _ --1.7 hudsonvalley21 _________________________ +2.4 _ +2.6 _ +2.1 ___ +0.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.2 ___ +1.6 _ +1.1 _ +1.0 DonSutherland.1 ________________________ +2.4 _ +2.2 _ +1.4 ___ +0.5 _ +3.0 _ +1.3 ___ +0.4 _ +0.7 _ --1.0 RodneyS ________________________________ +2.3 _ +1.2 _ +0.3 ___ +2.3 _ +2.6 _ +2.9 ___ +0.7 _ +0.6 _ --0.1 Orangeburgwx __________________________ +2.1 _ +2.5 _ +2.3 ___ --1.1 _ +3.0 _ --0.7 ___ --2.6 _ --0.9 _ --3.2 ___ Consensus __________________________ +1.9 _ +1.4 _ +0.8 ____ +0.5 _ +2.5 _ +1.2 ____ +0.5 _ +0.7 _ --1.2 wxallannj _______________________________ +1.7 _ +1.2 _ +0.9 ___ +0.7 _ +2.5 _ +1.2 ___ +0.7 _ +0.9 _ --1.4 BKViking _______ (-1%) ___________________+1.4 _ +1.5 _ +1.0 ___ +0.5 _ +2.1 _ +1.0 ___ +0.5 _ +0.3 _ --1.7 Roger Smith _____________________________+1.2 _ +0.7 _ +0.2 ___ --0.4 _ --0.5 _ --1.5 ___ --2.0 _ --1.0 _ --1.5 Tom ____________________________________ +1.1 _ +0.5 _ +0.1 ___ --0.2 _ +0.9 _ +0.6 ___ --0.6 _ +1.2 _ --0.1 Scotty Lightning _________________________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 ___ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.5 ___ +1.5 _ +1.5 __ 0.0 ___ Normal _______________________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ==================================================================================== Welcome back Orangeburgwx. Consensus for 10 forecasts is mean of 5th and 6th ranked. Color codes show warmest and coldest forecasts, note that Normal is colder than all forecasts for DCA, NYC and BOS.

+1.2 _ +0.7 _ +0.2 __ --0.4 _ --0.5 _ --1.5 __ --2.0 _ --1.0 _ --1.5

It appears that September will finish 7/3/2 (not in the contest rules but Dorian's extension into the month gave 8/4/3 as the total activity for the month -- this won't be scored alternatively since Dorian had achieved all its stages in August). Nobody in the contest (or the normals and outside entrants) had seven named storms, the maximum forecast was 6 from myself and also snowlover2, and contest normal. This meant that the top score was 14/16 for September. Several however got both the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes correct. Have added the September scores (out of a possible 16 points) to the already tabulated June to August scoring. The season total is now 12/5/3. The scoring is very close and depending on the accuracy of your Oct (and N-D) forecasts (10 plus 2 points to come), blended with your seasonal score out of 50, almost anyone could still win the contest. Scoring for June to September FORECASTER _________ Jun __ Jul __ Aug __ Sep ____ TOTAL (max 38) Ineedsnow ____________ 2.5 __ 5.5 __ 12.0 __ 13.0 ____ 33.0 __ Contest normal _____ 3.5 __ 5.5 __ 10.0 __ 13.0 ____ 32.0 __ CSU, consensus _____3.5 __ 5.5 __ 11.0 __ 12.0 ____ 32.0 hlcater ________________3.5 __ 6.0 __ 10.0 __ 12.0 ____ 31.5 cyclonic fury __________ 4.0 __ 5.5 __ 10.0 __ 12.0 ____ 31.5 snowlover2 ____________3.5 __ 4.0 __ 11.0 __ 13.0 ____ 31.5 stormlover74 __________4.0 __ 5.0 __ 10.0 __ 12.0 ____ 31.0 North Arlington 101 ____3.5 __ 4.5 __ 11.0 __ 12.0 ____ 31.0 Roger Smith ___________ 3.0 __ 6.0 ___ 8.0 __ 14.0 ____ 31.0 __ NHC (high end) _____ 3.5 __ 5.5 __ 10.0 __ 12.0 ____ 31.0 yoda __________________ 3.5 __ 6.0 __ 10.0 __ 10.0 ____ 29.5 NCforecaster89 _______ 3.5 __ 5.5 __ 11.0 ___ 9.0 ____ 29.0 RJay __________________ 3.5 __ 5.5 ___ 8.0 __ 12.0 ____ 29.0 __ NHC (median) ______ 3.5 __ 5.5 __ 11.0 ___ 9.0 ____ 29.0 Julian Colton __________ 4.0 __ 5.5 ___ 9.0 __ 10.0 ____ 28.5 A few Univ b n _________ 3.5 __ 5.5 ___ 9.0 __ 10.0 ____ 28.0 yotaman ______________ 3.5 __ 5.5 __ 11.0 ___ 4.0 ____ 24.0 Stebo _________________ 3.5 __ 4.0 __ 11.0 ___ 2.0 ____ 20.5 ____________________________________________________________ This is what your seasonal forecast will score if your Oct and N-D forecasts added to the current total add 12 points to your monthly totals. That may not represent the best possible outcome from where you are now. For example, in my case, I would get a higher total if my October forecast busted low on hurricanes, although the net gain is small. In most cases, you will score less than shown here eventually. FORECASTER ________ June-Sept points ______ Seasonal fcst ___ Seasonal count (12 5 3 + your Oct Nov-Dec) _________________________________________________________________________________ Score __ +12 for Oct, N-D __ Total Ineedsnow _____________ 33.0 ___________________ 17 7 3 ___________ 16 6 3 _________ 48 _____ 12 ______________ 93.0 hlcater _________________ 31.5 ___________________ 15 7 2 ___________ 16 6 4 _________ 45 _____ 12 ______________ 88.5 Cyclonic Fury ___________ 31.5 ___________________ 14 6 2 ___________ 15 6 3 _________ 48 _____ 12 ______________ 91.5 snowlover2 _____________ 31.5 ___________________ 16 7 3 ___________ 14 6 4 _________ 45 _____ 12 ______________ 88.5 stormlover74 ___________ 31.0 ___________________ 15 5 1 ___________ 16 5 3 _________ 46 _____ 12 ______________ 89.0 North Arlington 101 _____ 31.0 ___________________ 16 7 3 ___________ 15 6 4 _________ 47 _____ 12 ______________ 90.0 Roger Smith ____________ 31.0 ___________________ 18 12 4 __________ 17 8 4 _________ 39 _____ 12 ______________ 82.0 yoda ____________________29.5 ___________________ 13 7 2 ____________15 6 3 _________ 45 _____ 12 ______________ 86.5 NCForecaster89 ________ 29.0 ____________________15 7 3 ____________16 6 4 _________ 47 _____ 12 ______________88.0 RJay ___________________ 29.0 ____________________ 16 9 4 ___________ 15 6 4 _________ 43 _____ 12 ______________ 84.0 Julian Colton ___________ 28.5 ____________________ 15 9 4 ___________ 18 8 5 _________ 42 _____ 12 ______________ 82.5 A few Univ b n __________ 28.0 ____________________ 14 9 3 ___________ 15 7 3 _________ 46 _____ 12 ______________ 86.0 yotaman _______________ 24.0 ____________________ 13 5 2 ___________ 15 6 4 _________ 43 _____ 12 ______________ 79.0 Stebo __________________ 20.5 ____________________ 14 6 3 ___________ 15 6 4 _________ 48 _____ 12 ______________ 80.5 _________________________________________________________________

All four very early 10/17 in massive wintry outbreak from Midwest.

Predict the temperature anomalies (F deg) relative to 1981-2010 averages, for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

August finished at 3/1/1. The August scores (max is 12.0) combined with two earlier scores are shown here: FORECASTER _________ June __ July __ August ___ TOTAL (max 22) Ineedsnow ____________ 2.5 __ 5.5 ___ 12.0 _____ 20.0 NCforecaster89 _________3.5 __ 5.5 ___ 11.0 _____ 20.0 yotaman ______________ 3.5 __ 5.5 ___ 11.0 _____ 20.0 __ NHC, CSU, consensus _ 3.5 __ 5.5 ___ 11.0 _____ 20.0 yoda _________________ 3.5 __ 6.0 ___ 10.0 _____ 19.5 hlcater ________________3.5 __ 6.0 ___ 10.0 _____ 19.5 cyclonic fury ___________ 4.0 __ 5.5 ___ 10.0 _____ 19.5 stormlover74 ___________4.0 __ 5.0 ___ 10.0 _____ 19.0 North Arlington 101 _____ 3.5 __ 4.5 ___ 11.0 _____ 19.0 __ Contest normal ______ 3.5 __ 5.5 ___ 10.0 _____ 19.0 Julian Colton ___________ 4.0 __ 5.5 ____ 9.0 _____ 18.5 snowlover2 ____________ 3.5 __ 4.0 ___ 11.0 _____ 18.5 Stebo _________________ 3.5 __ 4.0 ___ 11.0 _____ 18.5 A few Univ b n __________3.5 __ 5.5 ____ 9.0 _____ 18.0 Roger Smith ___________ 3.0 __ 6.0 ____ 8.0 _____ 17.0 RJay __________________3.5 __ 5.5 ____ 8.0 _____ 17.0 ____________________________________________________________ Ineedsnow had the only perfect forecast for August but most of the others were fairly close and lost only one or two of the possible scoring points. The seasonal contest is still highly dependent on what happens this month and to some extent in October.

July finished 1/1/0 so the scores for June and July look like this ... FORECASTER _____June_ July __ TOTAL Yoda ____________ 3.5 _ 6.0 ___ 9.5 hlcater ___________3.5 _ 6.0 ___ 9.5 cyclonic fury ______ 4.0 _ 5.5 ___ 9.5 Julian Colton ______4.0 _ 5.5 ___ 9.5 stormlover74 ______4.0 _ 5.0 ___ 9.0 Roger Smith ______ 3.0 _ 6.0 ___ 9.0 RJay ____________ 3.5 _ 5.5 ___ 9.0 NCforecaster89 ____3.5 _ 5.5 ___ 9.0 AfewUniv b n _____ 3.5 _ 5.5 ___ 9.0 yotaman _________ 3.5 _ 5.5 ___ 9.0 Normal, NHC, CSU _ 3.5 _ 5.5 ___ 9.0 Consensus _______ 3.5 _ 5.5 ___ 9.0 ineedsnow ________2.5 _ 5.5 ___ 8.0 NorthArlington101 _ 3.5 _ 4.5 ___ 8.0 snowlover2 _______3.5 _ 4.0 ___ 7.5 Stebo ___________ 3.5 _ 4.0 ___ 7.5

June had no activity so the scoring (out of four possible points) looks like this: 4 pts (0,0,0 forecasts) __ Julian Colton, Stormlover74, Cyclonic Fury 3.5 pts (1,0,0 forecasts) _ all others except below 3.0 pts (1,1,0 forecast) __ Roger Smith 2.5 pts (2,1,0 forecast) __ ineedsnow ================================= July may get some action apparently.

Table of entries for 2019 Atlantic Tropical-Season Forecast Contest This year, will be keeping all the non-contest-entrant data in a separate zone at the top of the table. For entrants, the forecasts are listed in descending order of total storms with total hurricanes the second point of breaking ties, and majors the third point. FORECASTER ___________ SEASONAL __ MAY ___ JUN___ JUL ___ AUG ___ SEP ___ OCT ___ NOV-DEC Contest Normal ___________16 8 3 _____ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 4 2 1 __ 6 4 1 __ 3 2 1 __ 0 0 0 Contest consensus ________ 15 7 3 _____ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 2 1 0 __ 3 2 1 __ 5 3 1 __ 2 1 1 __ 1 0 0 NHC (high end) ___________15 8 4 _____1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 4 2 1 __ 5 4 2 __ 3 2 1 __ 0 0 0 NHC (midrange) __________ 12 6 3 _____1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 3 2 1 __ 4 3 1 __ 2 1 1 __ 0 0 0 CSU (June fcst) ___________13 6 2 _____1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 3 2 1 __ 5 3 1 __ 2 1 0 __ 0 0 0 _____________________________________________________________________________________ Roger Smith _____________18 12_4 ____ 1 0 0 __ 1 1 0 __ 1 1 0 __ 4 3 1 __ 6 4 2 __ 4 3 1 __ 1 0 0 ineedsnow _______________17 7 3 _____ 1 0 0 __ 2 1 0 __ 2 1 0 __ 3 1 1 __ 5 3 2 __ 4 1 0 __ 0 0 0 RJay ____________________16 9 4 _____ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 2 1 0 __ 4 3 1 __ 5 4 2 __ 2 1 1 __ 1 0 0 snowlover2 ______________ 16 7 3 _____ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 3 0 0 __ 3 2 1 __ 6 4 1 __ 2 1 1 __ 0 0 0 NorthArlington101 _________16 7 3 _____ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 3 1 0 __ 3 2 1 __ 5 3 1 __ 2 1 1 __ 1 0 0 Julian Colton _____________ 15 9 4 _____ 1 0 0 __ 0 0 0 __ 2 1 0 __ 2 2 0 __ 4 3 2 __ 4 2 2 __ 2 1 0 NCforecaster89 ___________ 15 7 3 _____ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 2 1 0 __ 3 2 1 __ 4 3 1 __ 3 1 1 __ 1 0 0 hlcater __________________15 7 2 _____ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 1 1 0 __ 3 2 0 __ 5 3 1 __ 3 1 1 __ 1 0 0 Stormlover74 ____________ 15 5 1 _____ 1 0 0 __ 0 0 0 __ 2 0 0 __ 3 2 0 __ 5 3 1 __ 3 0 0 __ 1 0 0 AfewUniv b n _____________14 9 3 _____ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 2 1 0 __ 3 3 1 __ 4 3 2 __ 2 2 0 __ 1 0 0 Stebo ___________________14 6 3 _____ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 3 2 0 __ 3 2 1 __ 3 1 1 __ 2 1 1 __ 1 0 0 CyclonicFury _____________ 14 6 2 _____ 1 0 0 __ 0 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 4 2 1 __ 5 3 1 __ 2 1 0 __ 1 0 0 yoda ____________________13 7 2 _____ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 1 1 0 __ 3 2 0 __ 4 3 2 __ 3 1 0 __ 0 0 0 yotaman ________________ 13 5 2 _____ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 2 1 0 __ 3 1 0 __ 3 2 1 __ 2 1 1 __ 1 0 0 __________________________________________________________________________________ Apart from my somewhat higher forecast, the rest of our 14 entrants have chosen values fairly close to the long-term average with a bit of a spread, and so the contest is likely to be closely fought (unless we get a very active season). Our consensus is very close to the top of the NHC range.

Okay so that's 13 more named storms, a total of 14 counting the one already recorded in May ... care to mention how many will be hurricanes and of those, major hurricanes? I will enter your numbers scaled to the contest normal in the absence of any further numbers. Thanks. And in general, we have reached the deadline now, so a table of entries will be posted soon.

April 8, 2024 ... long totality from west TX northeast to upstate NY and Quebec. Bound to be some cloud along that line but should be within reach of most people on the forum with a bit of planning (my target would be west TX, unless a week in advance it looks like a big high over Quebec then I can go there instead).

The deadline for entries will be extended through the weekend of June 1-2 to encourage a larger field. Those who have already entered may edit current forecasts during this time. Absolute deadline June 3rd 0600z, or earlier if the current slowly developing system depicted on NHS guidance map near Belize gets a more definite forecast for named storm activity. Thanks for entering.

I see there's a new invest candidate in the western Caribbean. The seasonal forecast contest will remain open past deadline tonight through the weekend or until that storm gets a more definite forecast posted. See two posts back for the link to the contest.

I came to very similar conclusions from a different research perspective (summary posted in whatever we call the main forum, I call it the Quiet Zone). Would not be surprised if there is some exceptional heat at some point in July or August as you seem to be implying. Good luck with your forecast, if you're right, I'm right.

FWIW I foresee a season that has an active coastal track similar to the peak years of the mid 1950s, as I think we will see a summer pattern similar to years like 1953 to 1955. And here's a contest you can enter in the main forum (a.k.a. the Quiet Room) ... Posting a notice in all regional forums -- 2019 hurricane (all named tropical storms) seasonal forecast contest open in tropical headquarters forum. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52312-2019-hurricane-all-named-tropical-storms-forecast-contest/

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52312-2019-hurricane-all-named-tropical-storms-forecast-contest/ 2019 tropical season forecast contest thread open.