Roger Smith

Final scoring for July 2020 Scores for PHX were boosted to the progression of 60, 55, 50 etc, unless raw scores were higher than the progression (boosted scores shown with ^ symbol). The highest raw score was 58. Progression scores of 25 and lower reverted to raw scores which were then higher (no ^ symbol). FORECASTER _____________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west__ TOTAL RJay ______________________ 78 _ 90 _ 78 __ 246 __ 58 _ 98 _ 76 __ 232 __ 478 __ 94 _ 18 _ 74 __ 186 _____ 664 hudsonvalley21 ____________74 _ 90 _ 82 __ 246 __ 50 _ 88 _ 88 __ 226 __ 472 __ 58 _ 45^_ 74 __ 177 _____ 649 Brian 5671 _________________58 _ 60 _ 92 __ 210 __ 58 _ 82 _ 76 __ 216 __ 426 __ 64 _ 60^_ 76 __ 200 _____ 626 ___ Consensus _____________56 _ 70 _ 98 __ 224 __ 46 _ 92 _ 76 __ 214 __ 438 __ 74 _ 40^_ 72 __ 186 _____ 624 BKViking __________________ 62 _ 76 _ 90 __ 228 __ 52 _ 94 _ 74 __ 220 __ 448 __ 74 _ 28 _ 68 __ 170 _____ 618 Don Sutherland1 ___________ 72 _ 94 _ 78 __ 244 __ 62 _ 92 _ 76 __ 230 __ 474 __ 46 _ 28 _ 64 __ 138 _____ 612 Tom _______________________46 _ 60 _ 92 __ 198 __ 20 _ 94 _ 78 __ 192 __ 390 __ 76 _ 50^_ 78 __ 204 _____ 594 Scotty Lightning ___________ 48 _ 50 _ 82 __ 180 __ 18 _ 92 _ 86 __ 196 __ 376 __ 74 _ 55^_ 84 __ 213 _____ 589 wxdude64 _________________ 56 _ 66 _ 84 __ 206 __ 42 _ 90 _ 74 __ 206 __ 412 __ 82 _ 40^_ 54 __ 176 _____ 588 RodneyS ___________________54 _ 74 _ 86 __ 214 __ 54 _ 46 _ 80 __ 180 __ 394 __ 84 _ 40^_ 58 __ 182 _____ 576 wxallannj __________________ 46 _ 76 _ 92 __ 214 __ 30 _ 90 _ 76 __ 196 __ 410 __ 66 _ 22 _ 66 __ 154 _____ 564 Jakkel wx __________________52 _ 58 _ 98 __ 208 __ 40 _ 86 _ 86 __ 212 __ 420 __ 60 _ 08 _ 70 __ 138 _____ 558 Roger Smith _______________ 24 _ 32 _ 62 __ 118 __ 02 _ 58 _ 48 __ 108 __ 226 __ 84 _ 40^_ 74 __ 198 _____ 424 Normal ____________________ 18 _ 30 _ 62 __ 110 __ 00 _ 62 _ 56 __ 118 __ 228 __ 54 _ 18 _ 74 __ 146 _____ 374 _________________________________________________________________ The order of scoring is certainly quite close for most, and could change before final values posted. =============================================== Extreme forecast report DCA (+4.1) is a win for RJay with highest forecast of +3.0. NYC (+3.5) is a win for Don Sutherland with highest forecast of +3.2. BOS at +1.9 is now closer to consensus than earlier estimated, no extreme forecast likely here. ORD (+5.2) is a win for Don Sutherland1 with highest forecast of +3.2. ATL (+1.9) is a win for RJay at +2.0. IAH (+2.2) is a win for Hudsonvalley21 with highest forecast of +1.6. DEN with two cooler days at end (+2.3) changed to a loss for RodneyS (+3.1) and a win for RJay (+2.0). PHX (+4.1) is running warmer than all forecasts giving a win to Brian5671 at +2.0 SEA (+1.3) is running a little warmer than most forecasts, and ended with a win-loss situation (Scotty Lightning at +0.5, Brian at +2.5)

Based on climate reports, only IAD changed value today, but BWI has reached 100 since the report so can't guarantee that there won't be a change there later. (edit, BWI held at 100, no further changes required) FORECASTER _________BWI _ DCA _ IAD _ RIC __ current total departure George BM ___________110 _ 111 _ 111 _ 112 ___ 45 NorthArlington101 ____103 _ 103 _ 101 _ 104 ___ 12 Roger Smith __________103 _ 103 _ 101 _ 102 ___ 10 tplbge ________________103 _ 101 _ 102 _ 103 ___ 10 H2O __________________102 _ 105 _ 102 _ 102 ___ 12 yoda _________________ 102 _ 103 _ 100 _ 104 ___ 10 wxdude64 ____________102 _ 102 _ 100 _ 103 ____ 8 WxUSAF ______________102 _ 101 __ 98 _ 100 ____ 6 Eskimo Joe ___________102 _ 100 _ 101 _ 100 ____ 6 WinstonSalemArlington __102 _ 100 _ 100 _ 102 ____ 5 ___ Consensus ________102 _ 101 _ 100 _ 102 ____ 6 WEATHER53 __________101 _ 101 __ 99 _ 103 ____ 5 Southmdwatcher _____ 101 __ 99 _ 101 _ 105 ____ 7 nw baltimore wx ______ 101 __ 99 __ 98 _ 100 ____ 3 (currently tied leader) C.A.P.E. _______________100 _ 104 __ 99 _ 103 ____ 7 ___ Actual to date _____ 100 __ 99 __ 99 _ 101 MN Transplant _________99 __ 98 __ 98 __ 99 ____ 5 Rhino16 _______________ 99 __ 97 __ 99 _ 101 ____ 3 (currently tied leader) Wx Watcher 007 _______ 98 __ 99 __ 98 _ 101 ____ 3 (currently tied leader) Dan The Man __________ 98 __ 96 __ 97 __ 99 ____ 9 TSG ___________________ 97 __ 98 __ 95 __ 98 ___ 11 JakkelWx ______________96 __ 97 __ 97 _ 100 ____ 9 note: values already passed by actuals appear in italics. values that are currently equal to seasonal max appear in green. _______________________________________________________ The means of the 20 forecasts are (contest means) _____ 101.1_ 100.9_ 99.9 _ 102.1 ==================================================================== If BWI has a final report of 101, then nwbaltimorewx would move ahead with 2 points.

If IAD reports 99 as max, and nothing else changes, we have a three-way tie at three points, the two current leaders add one point, Rhino16 drops one to move into the leadership tie. If IAD reports 100 as max, and no other changes, then we have a four-way tie with those three joined by WinstonSalem Arlington at 4 points. However there's some chance of other changes taking place, won't know for a while. RIC hasn't been very close to yesterday's 101.

I will update the provisional scoring when I can confirm today's maxima, daily climate reports are a bit late hitting the screen. I wasn't aware that BWI had hit 100 today, will change that and the 98 for IAD. (later edit -- confirmed the 100 at BWI and 98 at IAD from climate reports, but 101 at RIC, moves Wxwatcher007 back into a tie with nwbaltimorewx who had edged ahead when RIC was set at 100). If tomorrow is a bit hotter as you're thinking is possible, then all of this is academic anyway. A number of us are lurking.

These updates are now confirmed from climate reports, to be adjusted later if necessary, check back for edits. ... FORECASTER _________BWI _ DCA _ IAD _ RIC __ current total departure George BM ___________110 _ 111 _ 111 _ 112 ___ 46 NorthArlington101 ____103 _ 103 _ 101 _ 104 ___ 13 Roger Smith __________103 _ 103 _ 101 _ 102 ___ 11 tplbge ________________103 _ 101 _ 102 _ 103 ___ 11 H2O __________________102 _ 105 _ 102 _ 102 ___ 13 yoda _________________ 102 _ 103 _ 100 _ 104 ___ 11 wxdude64 ____________102 _ 102 _ 100 _ 103 ____ 9 WxUSAF ______________102 _ 101 __ 98 _ 100 ____ 5 Eskimo Joe ___________102 _ 100 _ 101 _ 100 ____ 7 WinstonSalemArlington __102 _ 100 _ 100 _ 102 ____ 6 ___ Consensus ________102 _ 101 _ 100 _ 102 ____ 7 WEATHER53 __________101 _ 101 __ 99 _ 103 ____ 6 Southmdwatcher _____ 101 __ 99 _ 101 _ 105 ____ 8 nw baltimore wx ______ 101 __ 99 __ 98 _ 100 ____ 2 (currently tied leader) C.A.P.E. _______________100 _ 104 __ 99 _ 103 ____ 8 ___ Actual to date _____ 100 __ 99 __ 98 _ 101 MN Transplant _________99 __ 98 __ 98 __ 99 ____ 4 Rhino16 _______________ 99 __ 97 __ 99 _ 101 ____ 4 Wx Watcher 007 _______ 98 __ 99 __ 98 _ 101 ____ 2 (currently tied leader) Dan The Man __________ 98 __ 96 __ 97 __ 99 ____ 8 TSG ___________________ 97 __ 98 __ 95 __ 98 ___ 10 JakkelWx ______________96 __ 97 __ 97 _ 100 ____ 8 note: values already passed by actuals appear in italics. values that are currently equal to seasonal max appear in green. _______________________________________________________ The means of the 20 forecasts are (contest means) _____ 101.1_ 100.9_ 99.9 _ 102.1 ====================================================================

updates for Sunday 19th -- later confirmed -- BWI 100 DCA 99 IAD 98 RIC 101

Slight movement in the contest scoring after the past two days. Updated scoring to date ... FORECASTER _________BWI _ DCA _ IAD _ RIC __ current total departure George BM ___________110 _ 111 _ 111 _ 112 ___ 55 NorthArlington101 ____103 _ 103 _ 101 _ 104 ___ 22 Roger Smith __________103 _ 103 _ 101 _ 102 ___ 20 tplbge ________________103 _ 101 _ 102 _ 103 ___ 20 H2O __________________102 _ 105 _ 102 _ 102 ___ 22 yoda _________________ 102 _ 103 _ 100 _ 104 ___ 20 wxdude64 ____________102 _ 102 _ 100 _ 103 ___ 18 WxUSAF ______________102 _ 101 __ 98 _ 100 ___ 12 Eskimo Joe ___________102 _ 100 _ 101 _ 100 ___ 14 WinstonSalemArlington __102 _ 100 _ 100 _ 102 ___ 15 ___ Consensus ________102 _ 101 _ 100 _ 102 ___ 16 WEATHER53 __________101 _ 101 __ 99 _ 103 ___ 15 Southmdwatcher _____ 101 __ 99 _ 101 _ 105 ___ 17 nw baltimore wx ______ 101 __ 99 __ 98 _ 100 ____ 9 C.A.P.E. _______________100 _ 104 __ 99 _ 103 ___ 17 MN Transplant _________99 __ 98 __ 98 __ 99 ____ 5 (current leaders) Rhino16 _______________ 99 __ 97 __ 99 _ 101 ____ 9 Wx Watcher 007 _______ 98 __ 99 __ 98 _ 101 ____ 7 ___ Actual to date ______98 __ 98 __ 97 __ 96 Dan The Man __________ 98 __ 96 __ 97 __ 99 ____ 5 (current leaders) TSG ___________________ 97 __ 98 __ 95 __ 98 ____ 5 (current leaders) JakkelWx ______________96 __ 97 __ 97 _ 100 ____ 7 note: values already passed by actuals appear in italics. _______________________________________________________ The means of the 20 forecasts are (contest means) _____ 101.1_ 100.9_ 99.9 _ 102.1 ==================================================================== Changes will be made to this on Sunday 19th with DCA at 99 and RIC 100 (hourly obs) so far. Lots of time left for higher values to emerge, 65% of years have their annual max later than today's date (the median is July 24).

Tracking anomalies and projections ... ______________________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA _________ (8d) ________________+4.1 _+3.2 _--2.3 __ +8.2 _+0.7 _+3.2 ___+4.1 _+1.6 _--1.8 ________ (15d) ________________+3.3 _+2.3 _--0.4 __ +5.9 _+1.0 _+4.5 ___+3.8 _+4.1 _--0.8 ________ (22d) _______________ +4.2 _+3.0 _+0.4 __ +5.6 _+2.1 _+3.3 ___ +3.6 _+4.1 _+0.4 ________ (29d) _______________ +4.2 _+3.5 _+1.9 __ +5.6 _+2.1 _+2.2 ___ +2.8 _+3.7 _+0.9 __ Seasonal Max to date ______ 99 __ 96 __ 95 _____ 96 __ 95 __101 ____ 99 _ 118 __ 94 _______ (p15d) _______________ +3.0 _+1.8 _--1.0 __ +5.0 _+1.0 _+2.5 ___+4.0 _+1.5 _--1.0 _______ (p22d) _______________+3.0 _+2.0 _+0.5 __ +4.0 _+1.0 _+3.5 ___ +3.0 _+3.0 __0.0 _______ (p25d) _______________ +2.0 _+1.0 _--0.5 __ +3.5 _+1.0 _+2.5 ___+3.0 _+1.0 _--0.5 16 ____ (p31d) _______________ +2.0 _+1.5 _+1.0 __ +3.0 _+1.0 _+2.0 ___+2.5 _+2.0 _+0.5 23 ____ (p31d) _______________+3.5 _+2.5 _+1.0 __ +4.5 _+2.0 _+3.0 ___ +3.5 _+3.5 _+1.0 30 ____ (p31d) _______________+4.5 _+2.5 _+2.0 __ +5.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 ___ +3.0 _+4.0 _+1.0 01 _ final anomalies _________ +4.1 _+3.5 _+1.9 __+5.2 _+1.9 _+2.2 ___ +2.3 _+4.1 _+1.3 (9th) _ A very warm start to July for much of the nation's mid-section, but the heat not quite reaching BOS, and cool in the Pac NW. Those trends will begin to fade towards normal conditions in all regions as the month goes on, so some imprint of this start can be seen in the projections for late in the month. (16th) _ The anomalies continued on the warm side in all but BOS and SEA, with a slight moderating trend. This seems to be the most likely projection to the end of the month, with gradually diminishing positive anomalies for most, a slow drift towards near or above normal for BOS and SEA. ... PHX has recorded 116 if you're tracking your seasonal max forecasts. (23rd) _ Anomalies did not change very much over the past week and seem to be heading for finishes near where they are now, may boot up a provisional scoring table soon. Have included the seasonal max to date in the above tables. So far SEA has not beaten (just tied) a value set on May 10th. Most other locations have set a seasonal max recently. (30th) _ Not much change in the past week, SEA finally had some hot weather (it has been in the mid to upper 90s throughout the region for days). Provisional scoring is adjusted for today's revised (and likely close to final) anomalies. (1st Aug) _ Final anomalies and scoring adjustments being posted as they hit my screen. PHX new seasonal max of 118 F.

And we have our first action since the contest was closed for entries, DCA moves up to 97. BWI and RIC tied their previous highs of 96 and 94 (on Friday 3rd). IAD hit 94 but had 95 previously. Table amended to show the new value for DCA, "Actual" remains below most forecasts or in a few cases tied with them, but DCA has now moved past one forecast. I have added total departures to the table. This table will be edited for a week or two if we keep moving up, so if there are later posts, scroll back to it. Location forecasts that are passed by reality will change to italic type. FORECASTER _________BWI _ DCA _ IAD _ RIC __ current total departure George BM ___________110 _ 111 _ 111 _ 112 ___ 62 NorthArlington101 ____103 _ 103 _ 101 _ 104 ___ 29 Roger Smith __________103 _ 103 _ 101 _ 102 ___ 27 tplbge ________________103 _ 101 _ 102 _ 103 ___ 27 H2O __________________102 _ 105 _ 102 _ 102 ___ 29 yoda _________________ 102 _ 103 _ 100 _ 104 ___ 27 wxdude64 ____________102 _ 102 _ 100 _ 103 ___ 25 WxUSAF ______________102 _ 101 __ 98 _ 100 ___ 19 Eskimo Joe ___________102 _ 100 _ 101 _ 100 ___ 21 WinstonSalemArlington __102 _ 100 _ 100 _ 102 ___ 22 ___ Consensus ________102 _ 101 _ 100 _ 102 ___ 23 WEATHER53 __________101 _ 101 __ 99 _ 103 ___ 22 Southmdwatcher _____ 101 __ 99 _ 101 _ 105 ___ 24 nw baltimore wx ______ 101 __ 99 __ 98 _ 100 ___ 16 C.A.P.E. _______________100 _ 104 __ 99 _ 103 ___ 24 MN Transplant _________99 __ 98 __ 98 __ 99 ___ 12 Rhino16 _______________ 99 __ 97 __ 99 _ 101 ___ 14 Wx Watcher 007 _______ 98 __ 99 __ 98 _ 101 ___ 14 Dan The Man __________ 98 __ 96 __ 97 __ 99 ___ 10 TSG ___________________ 97 __ 98 __ 95 __ 98 ____ 6 (current leader) JakkelWx ______________96 __ 97 __ 97 _ 100 ____ 8 ___ Actual to date ______96 __ 97 __ 95 __ 94 _______________________________________________________ The means of the 20 forecasts are (contest means) _____ 101.1_ 100.9_ 99.9 _ 102.1

Table of forecasts, July 2020 FORECASTER ______________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ____ DEN _PHX _SEA RJay ______________________+3.0 _+3.0 _+3.0 ___+3.0 _+2.0 _+1.0 ____ +2.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 hudsonvalley21 ____________+2.8 _+3.0 _+2.8 ___+2.6 _+1.3 _+1.6 ____ +0.2 _+0.8 __0.0 Don Sutherland1 ___________+2.7 _+3.2 _+3.0 ___+3.2 _+1.5 _+1.0 ____ --0.4 _+0.5 _--0.5 BKViking __________________ +2.2 _+2.3 _+2.4 ___+2.7 _+1.6 _+0.9 ____ +1.0 _+0.5 _--0.3 Brian 5671 _________________+2.0 _+1.5 _+1.5 ___+3.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ____ +0.5 _+2.0 _+2.5 wxdude64 _________________+1.9 _+1.8 _+1.1 ___+2.2 _+1.4 _+0.9 ____ +1.4 _+0.7 _--1.0 ___ Consensus ____________ +1.9 _+2.0 _+1.8 ___+2.4 _+1.5 _+1.0 ____ +1.0 _+0.7 _--0.1 RodneyS ___________________+1.8 _+2.2 _+1.2 ___+2.8 _--0.8 _+1.2 ____ +3.1 _+0.7 _--0.8 Jakkel wx __________________+1.7 _+1.4 _+2.0 ___+2.1 _+1.2 _+1.5 ____ +0.3 _--0.5 _--0.2 Scotty Lightning ___________ +1.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___+1.0 _+1.5 _+1.5 ____ +1.0 _+1.0 _+0.5 wxallannj __________________ +1.4 _+2.3 _+2.3 ___+1.6 _+1.4 _+1.0 ____ +0.6 _+0.2 _--0.4 Tom _______________________+1.4 _+1.5 _+1.5 ___+1.1 _+1.6 _+1.1 ____ +1.1 _+0.9 _+0.2 Roger Smith _______________ +0.3 _+0.1 __0.0 ___ +0.2 _--0.2 _--0.4 ___ +1.5 _+0.7 __0.0 Normal _____________________ 0.0 __0.0 __ 0.0 ___0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

< < < < < ........ <<<< ---- ====== Annual Scoring (Jan-June) 2020 ====== ---- >>>> .......> > > > > Numbers in red denote highest cumulative scores for each of nine locations. Numbers in bold black type denote highest subtotals for regions. FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__ c/e __DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTAL RodneyS ___________________446_ 398_440 __1284 __413 _367_376__1156 __2440 __466_420_356_ 1242 ____3682 Don Sutherland.1 ___________360 _366_394 __1120 __371 _356_398 __1125 __2245 __ 330_418_368_ 1116 ____3361 RJay ______________________ 406 _401_355 __1162 __307 _322 _375 __1004 __2166 __366_417_356_ 1139 ____3305 hudsonvalley21 ____________325 _332 _405 __1062 __294 _322_367 __ 983 __2045 __365_483_359_ 1207 ____3252 wxallannj __________________364 _366 _385 __1115 __290 _311 _398 __ 999 __2114 __340_448_366_ 1154 ____3268 ___ Consensus _____________330 _318 _391 __1039__294 _305_400 __ 999 __2038 __344_472_366_ 1182 _____3220 BKViking ___________________292 _292 _355 __ 939__335 _244 _376__ 955 __1894 __349_484_399_ 1232 _____ 3126 Tom _______________________ 332 _320 _356 __1008__254 _354 _353__ 961 __1969 __ 321_468_357_ 1146 ____3115 Brian5671 _________________ 356 _364 _354 __1074 __213 _323_379 __ 915 __1989 __224_403_392_ 1119 ____3108 Scotty Lightning ____________220 _202 _278 __ 700 __264 _295_420__ 979 __1679 __274 _470_418_ 1162 ____2841 wxdude64 __________________247 _229 _262 __ 738__240 _268 _406__ 914 __1652 __ 330 _427_280_ 1037 ____2689 Roger Smith ________________274 _269 _332 __ 875 __236 _381_324__ 941 __1816 __ 286 _252_216__754 ____ 2570 ___ Normal _________________184 _172 _234 __ 590 __224 _304 _346__ 874 __1464 __246_424_ 388_ 1058 ____2522 JakkelWx _ (4/6) ____________168 _163 _238 __ 569 __210 _155 _290 __657 __1226 __236 _304 _168__708 ____1934 yoda _ (2/6) _________________64 __ 43 __ 16 __ 123 __ 18_118 _125 __ 261 __ 384 __ 71 _161_ 70 __ 302 _____ 686 rclab _ (1/6) _________________05 __ 00 __ 00 __ 005 __ 00 _ 11 _ 24 __ 035 __ 040 ___ 56 _ 88 _ 66 __ 210 _____ 250 dwave _ (1/6) _______________ 72 __ 75 __ 48 __ 195 __ 12 _ 25 _ 10 __ 047 __ 242 ___ 16 _ 34 _ 00 __ 050 _____ 292 Maxim _ (1/6) _______________00 __ 00 __ 00 __ 000 __ 00 _ 20 _ 46 __ 066 __ 066 ___ 32 _ 50 _ 34 __ 116 _____ 182 Rhino16 _ (1/6) ______________00 __ 05 __ 20 __ 025 __ 00 _ 13 _ 30 __ 043 __ 068 ___ 04 _ 52 _ 54 __ 110 _____ 178 ============================================================================== Extreme forecast standings 42 of 54 forecasts so far have qualified for an extreme forecast award for the warmest forecast(s), 27 for warmest and 15 for coldest. FORECASTER ____ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr _ May _ Jun _ etc ___ Standings to date Brian 5671 _______ 4-0 __ 1-0 __ 3-1 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- _____10 - 1 RodneyS _________ 2-0 __ 3-0 __ 0-1 __ ---- __ 2-0 __ 2-0 ______9 - 1 Roger Smith ______ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ 4-2 __ 1-0 __ ---- ______ 6 - 2 DonSutherland1___0-0 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- __ 2-0 _____ 5 - 0 RJay _____________ ---- __ ---- __ 3-0 __ ---- __ ----- __ 1-0 _______4 - 0 Scotty Lightning __ 2-0 __ 0-0 __ ---- __ 1-0 __---- __ ---- _______ 3 - 0 Normal ___________1-0 __ 0-1 __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ---- __ 2-0 ______ 4 - 1 Tom _____________ 1-0 __ 0-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ---- _______ 2 - 0 RClab ____________ 2-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _______ 2 - 0 yoda _____________ 0-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _______1 - 0 wxdude64 ________ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ---- _______ 1 - 0 Jakkelwx _________ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ---- _______ 1 - 0 wxallannj _________ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-1 _______ 1 - 1 ================================================================================ BEST SCORES -- Totals for January to June Forecasters are listed in same order as annual points standings. Ties are possible which is why some locations have more than two best scores, also, if Normal or consensus achieve a top score, the actual forecaster with high score gets an award also. FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west___Months RodneyS ___________________ 2 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 2 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 2 _____ 3 _ Jan, Feb, May DonSutherland.1 ____________0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 _____ 2 _ Mar, Apr RJay _______________________ 1 ___ 2 ___ 0 ____ 2 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 1 _ June wxallannj ___________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 _____ 0 hudsonvalley21 _____________0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 ___ Consensus ______________0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 BKViking ___________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 _____ 0 Tom ________________________0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 Brian5671 __________________ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 0 _____ 0 Scotty Lightning ____________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 0 wxdude64 __________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 Roger Smith ________________ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 _____ Normal _______________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 1 ___ Apr Jakkelwx ___________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 RClab _______________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 _____ 0

Final Scoring for June 2020 This scoring is based on the end of month data with all stations now final (see anomaly tracker two posts back). Late penalties are small so there are no separate lines for raw scores and adjusted, the scores presented are after penalties, * for 1 pt deduction and ** for 2 pt deductions. ... Raw scores for ORD were all below 60, so the scoring was adjusted to fit a minimum progression of 60, 55, 50 etc, however, if raw scores were higher than progression values (the lowest forecast) the raw scores were used. The ^ symbol is used when scores are adjusted (^* means progression score reduced by late penalty). Note RJay late penalties only applied to late edits for DCA, NYC and BOS, other forecasts were not changed after deadline. FORECASTER _____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_c/e___DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTALS RJay _______ (-2%) __________92**92**_88**_272 __ 60^ _70 _80 __ 210 __ 482 __ 68 _ 84 _ 92 __ 244 _____ 726 RodneyS ___________________ 76 _ 78 _ 96 __ 250 __ 50^_ 78 _ 80 __ 208 __ 458 __ 94 _ 80 _ 72 __ 246 _____ 704 wxallannj ___________________96 _ 90 _ 86 __ 272 __ 35^_ 54 _ 80 __ 169 __ 441 __ 58 _ 98 _100__ 256_____ 697 Jakkelwx ___________________84 _ 88 _ 80 __ 252 __ 55^_ 60 _ 78 __ 195 __ 447 __ 74 _ 84 _ 88 __ 246 _____ 693 BKViking ___________________82 _ 84 _100__ 266 __ 45^_ 60 _ 74 __ 179 __ 445 __ 50 _ 92 _ 92 __ 234 _____ 679 Tom _______________________ 84 _ 84 _ 92 __ 260 __ 25^_ 70 _ 70 __ 165 __ 425 __ 58 _ 88 _ 96 __ 242 _____ 667 ___ Consensus ______________82 _ 84 _ 92 __ 258 __ 33^_ 60 _ 80 __ 173 __ 431 __ 58 _ 92 _ 90 __ 240 _____ 671 Scotty Lightning ____________84 _ 84 _ 90 __ 258 __ 30^_ 60 _ 70 __ 160 __ 418 __ 48 _ 96 _ 92 __ 236 _____ 654 DonSutherland.1 ___________ 64 _ 70 _ 86 __ 220 __ 20^_ 86 _ 94 __ 200 __ 420 __ 58 _100 _ 72 __230 _____ 650 Roger Smith ________________80 _ 84 _ 80 __ 244 __ 15^_ 70 _ 80 __ 165 __ 409 __ 78 _ 74 _ 82 __ 234 _____ 643 hudsonvalley21 ____________ 80 _ 86 _ 98 __ 264 __ 12 _ 56 _ 70 __ 138 __ 402 __ 64 _ 82 _ 80 __ 226 _____ 628 wxdude64 __ (-1%) _________ 79*_71*_71* __ 221 __ 40^_ 53*_81*__174 __ 395 __ 22 _ 91*_ 69*__182 _____ 577 ___ Normal _________________54 _ 64 _ 70 __ 188 __ 00 _ 90 _100 __ 190 __ 378 __ 28 _ 76 _ 82 __ 186 _____ 564 Brian5671 __ (-2%) _________ 43*_63*_69* __ 175 __29^* 39*_78**__146 __ 321 __ 37*_65*_80**_ 182 _____ 503 _______________________________________________________________________ Extreme forecast report _ six of nine qualify, four for high forecast(s) and two for low forecast. DCA, ORD and PHX are wins for high forecasts, wxallannj takes DCA and RodneyS takes the other two. NYC is a win for second highest forecast (RJay) and a loss for highest forecast wxallannj. ATL and IAH are wins for low forecasts from Don Sutherland, Normal also gets wins for both. BOS, PHX and SEA had best scores near consensus. ____________________________________________________________________________

+0.3 __ +0.1 __ 0.0 ___ +0.2 __ --0.2 __ --0.4 ___ +1.5 __ +0.7 __ 0.0

Predict the temperature anomalies (F deg) relative to 1981-2010 normal values: DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Anyone who didn't enter the seasonal max portion can still enter that too. Good luck !!

Seasonal Max predictions If you're not in this yet, post some numbers. I will also accept any edits of forecasts made. Not looking like our seasonal max is happening within the rest of June, so probably no real advantage for anyone posting now. FORECASTER ___________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Scotty Lightning ________ 102 __ 102 ___ 99 ___ 96 __ 103 __ 107 ___ 97 __ 117 __ 97 Roger Smith ____________ 102 __ 100 __ 101 ___99 __ 103 __ 107 __ 107 __ 120 __ 96 Tom ____________________ 102 ___99 ___ 99 ___102 __ 102 __ 104 ___97 __ 119 __ 96 hudsonvalley21 _________101 __ 100 ___ 98 ___ 97 __ 101 __ 105 ___ 98 __ 118 __ 95 BKViking _______________ 101 ___ 99 ___ 98 __ 103 __ 101 __ 103 ___ 99 __ 118 __ 95 DonSutherland1 ________ 101 ___ 98 ___ 98 ___ 96 ___ 99 __ 104 ___ 97 __ 118 __ 94 wxdude64 ______________ 100 ___ 99 ___ 99 ___ 98 __ 100 __ 105 __ 103 __ 117 __ 96 RodneyS _________________ 99 ___ 98 ___ 97 ___ 96 ___ 99 __ 103 ___ 98 __ 118 __ 93 wxallannj _________________97 ___ 96 ___ 95 ___ 98 ___ 98 ___ 98 ___ 98 __ 116 __ 94

Table of entries for 2020 N Atl hurricane seasonal forecast Two expert predictions are added to the field, the NHC numbers are middle of their range and CSU gave specific values as shown. Other institutional predictions can be seen at this link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Atlantic_hurricane_season Your forecasts are shown in order of number of named storms, then broken down by hurricanes and major hurricanes. FORECASTER ____________________St_ Hu_ Maj Windspeed ______________________ 22 _11 _ 6 WxWatcher007 __________________ 21 _11 _ 5 Roger Smith _____________________ 20 _13 _ 7 NutleyBlizzard ___________________ 20 _12 _ 4 Orangeburg Wx __________________ 20 _11 _ 5 NCforecaster89 __________________20 _10 _ 5 Snowlover2 ______________________19 _12 _ 5 Thunderman _____________________19 _10 _ 5 BlueDXer75 ______________________19 _ 9 _ 5 NorthHillsWx ____________________ 19 _ 9 _ 4 ___ Consensus (means) ________ 18.5_10.3_4.9 Rhino16 _________________________ 18 _14 _ 5 Rtd208 __________________________ 18 _12 _ 7 Newman _________________________18 _10 _ 4 Yoda _____________________________18 _ 8 _ 4 JakkelWx ________________________ 17 _10 _ 6 Alfoman _________________________ 17 _ 9 _ 5 Jaxjagman ______________________ 16 _ 9 _ 5 NHC (mid-range) _________________16 _ 8 _ 4.5 CSU _____________________________ 16 _ 8 _ 4 Olafminesaw ____________________ 15 _ 8 _ 4 Crownweather ___________________ 15 _ 8 _ 3 ______________________________________________________________ 19 forecasts (and the two expert predictions) ... means as shown for consensus in table. The contest means do not include the two expert predictions although they would not change much with them included.

Table of entries -- 2020 seasonal maxima in the Mid-Atlantic region Forecasts appear by order of BWI predictions, then sorted by DCA, IAD and RIC where tied to that point. Consensus is derived from medians although means would be similar. With 20 forecasts the median is the average of 10th and 11th ranked. The actual maximum to date will move up through this table (we can presume) to its eventual resting place. Later in the contest, a table of departures will be posted to show the evolving results of the contest. FORECASTER _________BWI _ DCA _ IAD _ RIC George BM ___________110 _ 111 _ 111 _ 112 NorthArlington101 ____103 _ 103 _ 101 _ 104 Roger Smith __________103 _ 103 _ 101 _ 102 tplbge ________________103 _ 101 _ 102 _ 103 H2O __________________102 _ 105 _ 102 _ 102 yoda _________________ 102 _ 103 _ 100 _ 104 wxdude64 ____________102 _ 102 _ 100 _ 103 WxUSAF ______________102 _ 101 __ 98 _ 100 Eskimo Joe ___________102 _ 100 _ 101 _ 100 WinstonSalemArlington __102 _ 100 _ 100 _ 102 ___ Consensus ________102 _ 101 _ 100 _ 102 WEATHER53 __________101 _ 101 __ 99 _ 103 Southmdwatcher _____ 101 __ 99 _ 101 _ 105 nw baltimore wx ______ 101 __ 99 __ 98 _ 100 C.A.P.E. _______________100 _ 104 __ 99 _ 103 MN Transplant _________99 __ 98 __ 98 __ 99 Rhino16 _______________ 99 __ 97 __ 99 _ 101 Wx Watcher 007 _______ 98 __ 99 __ 98 _ 101 Dan The Man __________ 98 __ 96 __ 97 __ 99 TSG ___________________ 97 __ 98 __ 95 __ 98 JakkelWx ______________ 96 __ 97 __ 97 _ 100 ___ Actual to date ______ 96 __ 93 __ 95 __ 94 _______________________________________________________ The means of the 20 forecasts are (contest means) _____ 101.1_ 100.9_ 99.9 _ 102.1

Okay, just a notice that this contest will close for entries at the end of the day Monday, the deadline is set at 06z 16th which is 0200h EDT (after midnight Monday, very early Tuesday) .... I will take entries as shown then so you can edit today or Monday without the need to notify. The table of entries will be based on what I see on Tuesday morning (will have the table of entries up within a few hours of the deadline). Don't forget we are at 3/0/0 so it's that plus whatever you think will happen to end of the year for a prediction of the overall seasonal count. Good luck !!

Monday 15th is the last day for entries or for editing your existing entries. No need to notify on edits, I will construct a table of entries from what I see on Tuesday. You can enter up to the end of the day (06z Tuesday is the cutoff). I will post a closed for entries note and start on the table of entries at that time. Good luck !!

Tracking how anomalies are developing, and projections ... __________________________ DCA _NYC _BOS ___ ORD _ATL _IAH ____ DEN _PHX _SEA _9th ______ (8d) __________ +3.3 _+2.0 _+2.0 ___ +8.7 _+2.3 _+2.2 ___ +8.8 _+3.9 _--0.9 16th ______(15d) _________ +2.5 _+1.8 _+0.4 ___ +4.4 _+1.0 _+1.1 ___ +5.7 _+2.3 _--1.1 23rd ______(22d) _________ +1.2 _+1.8 _+1.2 ___ +5.2 _--0.5 _+0.1 ___ +3.9 _+1.4 _+0.2 _9th ______(p15d) ________+3.5 _+2.5 _+2.5 ___ +6.0 _+3.5 _+3.0 ___ +8.0 _+2.5 _--0.7 _16th ____ (p22d) ________ +1.5 _+1.0 _--0.5 ___ +2.5 __0.0 _+0.5 ___ +4.0 _+2.5_ --0.5 _9th ______(p25d) ________+4.0 _+3.0 _+3.0 ___ +6.0 _+3.0 _+3.0 ___ +7.0 _+2.0 _--0.5 _16th ____ (p30d) ________ +0.5 __0.0 _--1.0 ___ +1.5 _--0.5 __0.0 ___ +3.0 _+2.5 _--0.5 _23rd ____ (p30d) ________ +1.5 _+1.0 _+0.5 ___ +3.5 _--0.5 __0.0 ___ +3.5 _+2.0 __0.0 final anomalies __________ +2.3 _+1.8 _+1.5 ___ +5.0 _--0.5 __0.0 ___ +3.6_ +1.2 _+0.9 ______________________________________ (9th) _ A fairly warm start to the month except in the Pac NW which has been chilly and wet. These trends not expected to change much next week, with a buildup of stronger warmth looking set for later in June. The cool regime in the Pac NW appears likely to trend towards subdued warmth later in the month. (16th) _ The forecasts began to unravel somewhat this past week due to the influence of coastal low pressure and a general trend towards cloudiness in eastern and central regions. This is now expected to be a persistent trend and the shrinking positive anomalies may have trouble surviving in any form to end of the month in most cases. The southwest should remain quite warm relative to normal, and the Pac NW will probably remain cooler than normal. (23rd) _ Past week trended a bit warmer than predicted but now looking somewhat cooler again to end of month, with the western heat continuing but fading in the Pac NW after a few hot days here. (1st July) _ Anomalies have been posted and contest scored overnight.

Table of forecasts for June 2020 FORECASTER ______________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA ___ wxallannj ___________________+2.1 _+2.3 _+2.2 __ +1.1 _+1.8 _+1.0 __ +1.5 _+1.3 _+0.9 RJay _______ (-2%) __________+2.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 __ +2.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +2.0 _+2.0 _+0.5 Jakkelwx ___________________+1.5 _+1.2 _+0.5 __ +2.4 _+1.5 _+1.1 __ +2.3 _+2.0 _+0.3 Tom _______________________ +1.5 _+1.0 _+1.1 __ +0.9 _+1.0 _+1.5 __ +1.5 _+1.8 _+1.1 Scotty Lightning ____________+1.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +1.0 _+1.5 _+1.5 __ +1.0 _+1.0 _+0.5 BKViking ___________________+1.4 _+1.0 _+1.5 __ +1.5 _+1.5 _+1.3 __ +1.1 _+1.6 _+1.3 ___ Consensus _____________ +1.4 _+1.0 _+1.1 __ +1.2 _+1.5 _+1.0 __ +1.5 _+1.6 _+0.4 hudsonvalley21 ____________ +1.3 _+1.1 _+1.4 __ +0.6 _+1.7 _+1.5 __ +1.8 _+2.1 _+1.9 Roger Smith ________________+1.3 _+1.0 _+0.5 __ +0.7 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +2.5 _+2.5 __0.0 wxdude64 __ (-1%) _________ +1.3 _+0.4 _+0.1 __ +1.3 _+1.8 _+0.9 __ --0.3 _+0.8 _--0.6 RodneyS ___________________ +1.1 _+0.7 _+1.3 __ +1.9 _+0.6 _+1.0 __ +3.9 _+2.2 _--0.5 DonSutherland.1 ___________ +0.5 _+0.3 _+0.8 __ +0.8 _+0.2 _--0.3 __ +1.5 _+1.2 _--0.5 ___ Normal __________________0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 ___ 0.0 __0.0 __ 0.0 Brian5671 __ (-2%) _________ --0.5 __ 0.0 __0.0 __ +1.0 _+2.5 _+1.0 __ +0.5 _+0.5 __0.0 __________________________________________________________________________ forecasts color coded for warmest and coldest. Consensus is median of 12 forecasts (mean of 6th, 7th ranked). Normal is also colder than forecasts for ORD, ATL and PHX, tied coldest for NYC, BOS. (note edit on June 23 was to correct out of order predictions for DEN, PHX ... some posts had them out of order and I just noticed this doing the seasonal max contest)

Four seasons contest update, Spring totals and points with winter points added _ note points structure amended with more forecasters now regularly entering, I have given the minimum of one point to all for winter 2019-20. _ points based on 10 for first, then 7 for second, on down to 1 point for 8th to end of the scoring, three contests must be entered to qualify. FORECASTER ___________ Winter points ____ Spring totals ____ Spring points _____ TOTAL POINTS RodneyS _________________________ 10 ____________ 1726 _____________ 6 ____________ 16 DonSutherland 1 ___________________5 ____________ 1899 ____________ 10 ____________ 15 hudsonvalley21 ____________________4 ____________ 1786 _____________ 7 ____________ 11 wxallannj _________________________ 7 _____________1557 _____________ 3 ____________ 10 ______ Consensus _________________ 5 ____________ 1653 _____________ 5 ____________ 10 BKViking __________________________ 6 ____________ 1545 _____________ 2 _____________ 8 Tom _______________________________3 ____________ 1598 _____________ 4 _____________ 7 RJay _______________________________1 ____________ 1643 _____________ 5 _____________ 6 Scotty Lightning ___________________ 2 ____________ 1458 _____________ 1 _____________ 3 wxdude64 _________________________ 1 ____________ 1469 _____________ 1 _____________ 2 Roger Smith _______________________ 1 ____________ 1473 _____________ 1 _____________ 2 Brian5671 _________________________ 1 ____________ 1532 _____________ 1 _____________ 2 _________ Normal __________________ 1 ____________ 1404 ______________1 _____________ 2 _________________________________________________________

Let's say seasonal max by June 15th, if you wish to enter just add them in.

We have relaxed the late penalties this year, so those won't cost you much at all guys. ... Will replace this with a table of entries later on, I think all the regular entrants have checked in.

Thanks for entries so far, will leave this open for more entries until June 15th and you can edit any entries you've made without notice, I won't be recording any predictions until I declare the contest closed. Since 95% of years have a max after that date and often a month or two after it, I can't see that people will gain much advantage but we'll see.