Roger Smith

Violent line of storms close to derecho intensity racing east in s PA and look like they are heading for n MD within hours.

Collect the entire set ... four weak to moderate tropical storms in the past few days have swollen the count to 9/1/0. Some chance of Franklin becoming a hurricane next week, would then go to 9/2/0 or even (gasp) 9/2/1. Good luck to all of us getting to our numbers from 9/1/0.

Final scoring for August 2023 Scoring estimates based on latest posted provisional anomalies. DCA not adjusted yet. FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west__ TOTAL __ anomalies _______________ -0.7 _-1.1 _-0.9 ___ _ _ +0.5_+2.4_+5.8 __ __ __ __ __ +1.3_+4.4_+2.5 DonSutherland1 _____________ 84 _ 88 _ 92 __ 264 __ 94 _ 92 _ 40 __ 226_ 490 _ 88 _ 52 _ 92 __ 232 ___722 wxdude64 ___________________92 _ 96 _ 80 __ 268 __ 76 _ 88 _ 36 __ 200 _ 468 _ 58 _ 54 _ 86 __ 198 ___ 666 hudsonvalley21 ______________78 _ 76 _ 76 __ 230 __ 92 _ 84 _ 28 __ 204 _ 434 _ 82 _ 42 _ 84 __ 208 ___ 642 RJay ________________________ 66 _ 58 _ 62 __ 186 __ 90 _ 72 _ 62 __ 224 _ 410 _ 66 _ 82 _ 70 __ 218 ___ 628 ___ Consensus ______________ 72 _ 66 _ 74 __ 212 __ 94 _ 76 _ 32 ___ 202 _ 414 _ 74 _ 54 _ 84 __ 212 ___ 626 Tom _________________________ 92 _ 82 _ 86 __ 260 __ 88 _ 44 _ 06 __ 138 _ 398 _ 96 _ 38 _ 78 __ 212 ___ 610 RodneyS ____________________ 90 _ 82 _ 94 __ 266 __ 98 _ 44 _ 24 __ 166 _ 432 _ 78 _ 38 _ 58 __ 174 ___ 606 wxallannj ____________________ 62 _ 58 _ 66 __ 186 __ 82 _ 92 _ 26 __ 200 _ 386 _ 70 _ 56 _ 92 __ 218 ___ 604 BKViking ____________________ 58 _ 50 _ 52 __ 160 __ 94 _ 72 _ 40 __ 206 _ 364 _ 78 _ 62 _ 94__ 234 ___ 600 Roger Smith ________________ 56 _ 48 _ 48 __ 152 __ 70 _ 96 _ 52 __ 218 _ 370 _ 34 _ 82 _ 90__ 206 ___ 576 so_whats_happening ________62 _ 58 _ 62 __ 182 __ 80 _ 78 _ 32 __ 190 _ 372 _ 50 _ 62 _ 76 __ 188 ___ 560 Rhino16 _____________________ 92 _ 94 _ 94 __280 __ 78 _ 44 _ 00 __ 122 _ 402 _ 64 _ 00 _ 64 __ 128 ___ 530 ___ Normal ___________________86 _ 78 _ 82 __ 246 __ 90 _ 52 _ 00 __ 142 _ 388 __74 _ 12 _ 50 __ 136 ___ 524 Scotty Lightning ____________ 66 _ 58 _ 72 __ 196 __ 90 _ 72 _ 12 ___ 174 _ 370 _ 64 _ 42 _ 40 __ 146 ___ 516 ______________________________ _ _ _ _ _ persistence (July anoms) _ 74 _ 48 _ 56 __ 178 __ 96 _ 96 _ 46 __ 238 _ 416 __ 50 _ 44 _ 78 __ 172 ___ 588 ==================== EXTREME FORECAST REPORT DCA _ (-0.7) _ wxdude64 at -1.1 and Tom, Rhino16 at -0.3 all share a win as RodneyS at -1.2 takes a loss. NYC _ (-1.1) _ wxdude64 at -1.3 has a win as he took a narrow lead over Rhino16 at -0.8 (not a loss situation). BOS _ (-0.9) _ wxdude64 (-1.9) takes a loss and Rhino16, RodneyS (-0.6) share a win. ORD _ At +0.5, the outcome does not qualify as extreme. ATL _ (+2.4) _ Roger Smith at +2.2 has a win. IAH _ (+5.8) _ A win for RJay (+3.5). DEN _ (+1.3) the outcome does not qualify as extreme, third highest forecast was high score. PHX _ (+4.4) is a shared win for RJay and Roger Smith at +3.5. SEA _ (+2.5) is a win for BKViking at +2.2, and by a narrow margin, a loss for wxallannj (+2.9) ___________________________________________________ (forecasts) FORECASTER ________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _SEA Roger Smith __________________ +1.5 _+1.5 _+1.7 __ +2.0 _+2.2 _+3.0 __ -2.0 _+3.5 _+2.0 BKViking ______________________+1.4 _+1.4 _+1.5 __ +0.8 _+1.0 _+2.4 __ +2.4 _+2.5 _+2.2 so_whats_happening __________+1.2 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +1.5 _+1.3 _+2.0 __ -1.2 _+2.5 _+1.3 wxallannj ______________________+1.2 _+1.0 _+0.8 __ -0.4 _+2.0 _+1.7 __ -0.2 _+2.2 _+2.9 RJay __________________________+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +1.0 _+1.0 _ +3.5 __ +3.0 _+3.5 _+1.0 Scotty Lightning ______________+1.0 _+1.0 _+0.5 ___ 0.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ -0.5 _+1.5 _-0.5 ___ Consensus ________________+0.7 _+0.6 _+0.4 __+0.2_+1.2 _+2.0 ____0.0 _+2.1 _+1.7 hudsonvalley21 _______________+0.4 _+0.1 _+0.3 __+0.1 _+1.6 _+1.8 ___+0.4 _+1.5 _+1.7 DonSutherland1 ______________ +0.1 _-0.5 _-0.5 __ +0.2 _+2.0_+2.4 ___+0.7 _+2.0 _+2.1 ___ Normal ____________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 Tom __________________________ -0.3 _-0.2 _-0.2 ___-0.1 _ -0.4 _+0.6 __ +1.1 _ +1.3 _+1.4 Rhino16 _______________________-0.3 _-0.8 _-0.6 ___ -0.6 _-0.4 _-0.3 __ -0.5 _-0.6 _+0.7 wxdude64 ____________________-1.1 _ -1.3 _ -1.9 ___ -0.7 _+1.8 _+2.2 __ -0.8 _+2.1 _+1.8 RodneyS ______________________-1.2 _-0.2 _-0.6 ___+0.4 _-0.4 _+1.6 __+0.2 _+1.3 _+0.4 ______________________________ _ _ _ _ warmest and coolest forecasts color coded; all sets include some lower than Normal. This month I will score persistence (July anomalies) ... those are shown below ____ persistence ______________ +0.6 _+1.5 _+1.3 ___+0.3 _+2.2 _+2.7 __ -1.2 _+7.2 _+1.4

Just for interest, here is the complete list of years (at NYC) that had their annual maximum later than today's date August 21st ... they are arranged by dates of occurrence and within same dates, from warmest to coolest values. Ties within this range of dates are shown in italics. Ties with earlier values are shown underlined. Notes include any record highs that were not annual maxima. Absence of such a note implies that the warmest annual max shown is also that day's record high. Date ___ YEAR(s) ___ Max _______ notes (including record highs not annual maxima) Aug 21 __ 1869 ___ 95 _______________________ 96F 1955 Aug 22 __ 1916 ___ 95 ___________ Aug 23 __ (no years had max) _______________ 92F 1916 Aug 24 __ 1972 ___ 94 (tied July 19 & 23, 1972 94F) Aug 25 __ (no years had max) _______________ 95F 1948 Aug 26 __ 1948 __ 103 Aug 27 __ 1960 _ 91 (tied July 12, 1960 91F) __ 101F 1948 Aug 28 __ 1973 ___ 98 __ tied 30th __________ 100F 1948 Aug 29 __ (no years had max) ________________ 99F 1953 Aug 30 __ 1973 ___ 98 __ tied 28th ___________ 98F also in 1953 Aug 31 __ (no years had max) ________________100F 1953 Sep 1 ____ (no years had max) ________________ 97F 1953 Sep 2 ____ 1953 __ 102 ____ 1932 _ 96 ___ 2014 _ 92 Sep 3 ____ 1929 ___ 99 ____ 1921 _ 96 _________ Sep 4 ____ (no years had max) ________________ 97F 1929 Sep 5 ____ (no years had max) ________________ 94F 1985 Sep 6 ____ (no years had max) ________________ 97F 1881 Sep 7 ____ 1881 ___101 Sep 8 ____ 2015 ___ 97 Sep 9 ____ 1915 ___ 94 ____ 1884 _ 91 (tied June 21, Aug 20, Sep 10 1884 91F) Sep 10 ___ 1897 ___ 93 (tied July 6, 1897 93F) ___ 1884 _ 91 (tied June 21, Aug 20, Sep 9 1884 91F) ________________________________________________ 97F 1931 and 1983 Sep 11 ___ 1983 ___ 99 __ 1931 ___ 99 __ (1931 tied Aug 7 99F) Sep 12 ___ (no years had max) ________________ 94F 1961 Sep 13 ___ (no years had max) ________________ 94F 1952 Sep 14 ___ (no years had max) ________________ 93F 1931 Sep 15 ___ 1927 ___ 92 (tied four dates in July 1927 92F) ___ Sep 16 ___ (no years had max) ________________ 93F 1915 Sep 17 ___ (no years had max) ________________ 93F 1991 Sep 18 ___ (no years had max) ________________ 91F 1891 Sep 19 ___ (no years had max) ________________ 94F 1983 Sep 20 ___ (no years had max) ________________ 93F 1895, 1983 Sep 21 ___ (no years had max) ________________ 95F 1895 Sep 22 ___ 1914 ___ 95 (tied May 27, 1914 95F) ___ 1970 _ 94 ___ record 95F 1895, 1914 Sep 23 ___ 1895 ___ 97 ____________________ also 96F May 31, June 1, 2 1895 ___________________________ Also 93F on Sep 1st to 3rd 1898 but annual max was 100F in July 3. Records after Sep 23 generally near 90F, sooner or later a year could set an annual max in October as 94F in 1941 is above annual maxima of several years.

95 at RIC, 94 at IAD and 92 at DCA, BWI on Monday Aug 21st. No changes to contest. Friday another weak pulse of heat breaks away from the source region but I don't see much potential for it to be warmer than today. I am expecting some record warmth in the autumn but that has to come before mid-September to produce warmer temperatures than our current contest values.

I recall 602 dm from around July 1995 and of course then there's July 1936 before upper air soundings. Want to bet it stayed below 603 dm with 120F readings on several occasions? Maybe those are just August records?

Looking a bit more like mid-90s than 100F now, there isn't much push on the heat and locations upstream have remained in mid-90s, but there will be lots of sunshine in the MA region tomorrow, I think. Will be checking to see if any of the four locations need an update. Sort of expecting not.

Still looking possible to reach 100F on Monday, 582 dm thickness reaches central VA, pattern looks generally dry and some downslope component is present with windshift line followed by apparent back door cold front Tuesday, leading to several days in 85-90 F range, low humidity, but the heat will not be pushed a long way south or west and could return later in the week. The next peak in thickness values (according to GFS guidance) is on Friday 25th (also just shy of 582 dm), air mass looks a bit more humid with that return to heat, may be more like 95-98 F.

Summer Maximum Contest __ Update moved to September contest

Updates and projections to end of month from GFS guidance ... ____________________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _SEA (15th) ____ (anom 14d) ____ -1.6 __-1.0 ___ 0.0 ___+0.1 _+1.4 _+5.9 ___-3.1 _ +5.1 _ +3.2 (22nd) ___ (anom 21d) ____ -1.2 __-1.1*___-0.5 ___-0.2 _+1.1 _+6.0 ___+0.3 _ +3.9 _ +3.6 * adjusted for missing data 21st. (15th) ____ (p anom 31d) __ -0.5 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 ___+0.5 _+2.0 _+4.0 ___-1.5 _ +3.5 _ +3.0 (22nd) ___ (p anom 31d) __ -1.0 __-1.0 ___-1.0 ___+1.5 _+1.5 _+4.0 ___+2.0 _ +3.0 _ +2.5 (28th) ___ (p anom 31d) __ -1.0 __-1.0 ___-1.0 ___+1.5 _+2.0 _+5.0 ___+2.0 _ +4.0 _ +2.5 (31st) ___ (anomalies) _____-0.7 _ -1.1 __ -0.9 ___ +0.5 _+2.4 _+5.8 __ +1.3 _ +4.4 _ +2.5 current anomalies in last entry above are now confirmed values. (seasonal max updates in previous post ... IAH, DEN and SEA are now at higher values) (15th _ Projection based on assumptions of near average or slightly above normal second half of August in east, continued heat in west, finally overturning to some extent the localized negative trend at DEN). (22nd _ Projections now based on continued -1 to -2 trends in east, +2 to +4 further west, resuming also in Phoenix once the cloud from the recent hurricane clears away). (31st _ 1st Sep) ... Scoring being updated to final by Friday Sep 1st mid-day.

In the ongoing heat wave BC has seen its previous August record (41.7 C, 2004) broken today (Lytton at 42.1 C, possibly a bit higher in end of day reports). I've had 41.2 C locally (106 F) and it feels about like the 2021 heat dome out there (we reached 44 C in that episode). Pretty sure there are some new August records for WA and OR as well. Brutal heat that will last to Thursday. The windy and perhaps stormy cold front on Friday is causing red flag concerns for current forest fire situation which is generally bad although under control in most cases. Wind gusts to 40-50 mph in that event will create a widespread dangerous situation.

As I posted in another thread, I believe you may get one day of scorching heat around Monday and it could go over 100F. That earlier GFS output showing later heat seems to be out of the picture now, this will be two days of heat Sunday-Monday and a sharp cold front on Tuesday morning. Will go out on a limb and predict 95, 102 for the two days as a regional average.

Well I have 106F outside here today, in that heat dome 2.0 and I'm wondering if a bit of this heat will get into the Mid-Atlantic around Monday of next week? It is certainly going to reposition over the central plains region by the coming weekend. We will end up with four days at or above 100F here in this heat wave and a severe thunderstorm end to it on Friday, probably not what we need to keep a lid on the regional fire situation which is bad but not quite at worst-case scenario levels yet. Rain has been infrequent in the past six weeks but that is normal around here. 106F is about 20 above normal for this location in mid-August. Anyway, keep an eye on Monday. GFS 18z has 582dm thickness near DC. Cold front blasts through overnight so Sunday-Monday is the only hope.

I'm a little outside your region but I do have the heat going on, 106F at my local weather station (Warfield BC) -- I think you may get one day of this heat on Monday from model consensus, Tuesday sees it cut off quickly by a fast-moving cold front before noon. Could peak at 98-102 for you but just one day, we are in middle of five-day heat wave here. Not sweating much, dew point is 43F. Relative humidity is 12%. I suspect you will improve on those numbers and get a brief 100/78 combo on Monday. At the same time, I can see how it fails to reach your region (mid-Atlantic looks more certain) and I can also see how it lasts several days if Tuesday front is a glancing blow. Anyway, Don if you read this, BC August record of 41.7 was set in 2004 and looks likely to fall if not here then at Lytton BC which is at 41.5 this hour. (we are 41.2). This is not quite as bad as the heat dome but close. (later edit 4 p.m. Pacific daylight time, Lytton BC at 42.1 has broken that record, locally we stayed at 41 C).

I expect some serious heat to develop late in August like such years as 1948, 1953 and 1973. That anomaly in the southwest and parts of the northwest U.S. (up to my location, running hot here too) will eventually shift east. It may be near the end of August or maybe early September. But I think it will lead to 100+ days occurring then and setting records.

Those older Chicago area records seem to correlate well with Toronto back to 1840 and to some extent Providence RI back to 1832 (details on those sources are in my thread). For example April 1844 was a lot warmer than most other Aprils of that era. Winters 1855 to 1857 were all very cold for at least some portion (1856 more sustained). Winter 1841-42 was a very mild winter. I have some records copied out from some source for Fort Dearborn in the period 1782 to 1787. They show evidence of a very cold winter in 1783-84. The reversal of temperatures in winter 1857 from Jan (extreme cold) to Feb (record warm) came with severe ice jam flooding in many areas. It basically went from one extreme to another between Jan 22-24 and Feb 7-15. July 1868 was very hot in Toronto and with some adjustment for urban heat island in later data, is fairly close to being as hot as any later summer month. It was quite an outlier, as most other summers of the era were no warmer than what we might consider average. 1854 also had a rather hot summer.

https://www.mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php I found the attached map in the GFS 00z run for yesterday evening, for S America. Don't know if this link will update to the next 00z run or not. If so perhaps somebody can freeze this image (it won't update before 0340z). (link not working, go to GFS maps and select S America, 00z run, any early map -- working on getting a link to show this) Seems to show a sort of winter version of heat dome over central S America. There would probably be a bit of an easterly wind component in coastal Chile downsloping like a strong Santa Ana does in a California warm spell in late winter. Even so it's quite a remarkable map with the 582 dm thickness contours in their version of early February! Made me think of the remarkable warmth we had in BC around Feb 1, 1998, temps were into the 60s and I was out playing golf in summer clothing on a course that nine times out of ten is not open for play in Jan-Feb and can be covered in snow. (an analogue to season and El Nino) -- or the spectacular record breaking going on in Dec 1982 in eastern NA.

Table of forecasts for August 2023 FORECASTER ________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _SEA Roger Smith __________________ +1.5 _+1.5 _+1.7 __ +2.0 _+2.2 _+3.0 __ -2.0 _+3.5 _+2.0 BKViking ______________________+1.4 _+1.4 _+1.5 __ +0.8 _+1.0 _+2.4 __ +2.4 _+2.5 _+2.2 so_whats_happening __________+1.2 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +1.5 _+1.3 _+2.0 __ -1.2 _+2.5 _+1.3 wxallannj ______________________+1.2 _+1.0 _+0.8 __ -0.4 _+2.0 _+1.7 __ -0.2 _+2.2 _+2.9 RJay __________________________+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +1.0 _+1.0 _ +3.5 __ +3.0 _+3.5 _+1.0 Scotty Lightning ______________+1.0 _+1.0 _+0.5 ___ 0.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ -0.5 _+1.5 _-0.5 ___ Consensus ________________+0.7 _+0.6 _+0.4 __+0.2_+1.2 _+2.0 ____0.0 _+2.1 _+1.7 hudsonvalley21 _______________+0.4 _+0.1 _+0.3 __+0.1 _+1.6 _+1.8 ___+0.4 _+1.5 _+1.7 DonSutherland1 ______________ +0.1 _-0.5 _-0.5 __ +0.2 _+2.0_+2.4 ___+0.7 _+2.0 _+2.1 ___ Normal ____________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 Tom __________________________ -0.3 _-0.2 _-0.2 ___-0.1 _-0.4 _+0.6 __ +1.1 _ +1.3 _+1.4 Rhino16 _______________________-0.3 _-0.8 _-0.6 ___ -0.6 _-0.4 _-0.3 __ -0.5 _-0.6 _+0.7 wxdude64 ____________________-1.1 _ -1.3 _ -1.9 ___ -0.7 _+1.8 _+2.2 __ -0.8 _+2.1 _+1.8 RodneyS ______________________-1.2 _-0.2 _-0.6 ___+0.4 _-0.4 _+1.6 __+0.2 _+1.3 _+0.4 ______________________________ _ _ _ _ warmest and coolest forecasts color coded; all sets include some lower than Normal. This month I will score persistence (July anomalies) ... those are shown below ____ persistence ______________ +0.6 _+1.5 _+1.3 ___+0.3 _+2.2 _+2.7 __ -1.2 _+7.2 _+1.4 Persistence scores 696 against our consensus but PHX adds zero to that total; if persistence scored 900, consensus would score 717 as it would score 21 (and probably higher in a max 60). All other scores would be the same either way. (scores are 100 minus 2x 0.1 errors). Some different possibilities exist in the range between 2.1 and 7.2 for Phoenix, an outcome of 7.2 this month would give 3.5 a score of 49 so max 60 would come into effect. An outcome of 5.5 would give 3.5 a score of 65 and would give persistence a score of 71. It could be said then, our consensus has not strayed far from persistence except that the extreme anomaly at PHX is not expected to repeat. Our closest call to a repeat is +3.5 from RJay and Roger Smith. Seasonal max values will be imported into this thread in a few days. Updated seasonal max to date (Aug 26 2023) _ 97 _ 93 _ 91 ___100 __ 99 __ 109 _____ 99 __ 119 __ 95

This event seems to be correlated in latitude, timing and intensity by the recent broiling heat wave in the central Mediterranean region, which peaked about a week ago, with temperatures near all-time highs in parts of Tunisia, Sicily, southern mainland Italy, Albania, Greece and western Turkey. For example it was 45.6 C on July 25 at Catania, close to their previous all-time high of 46.0. Values of 48-49 C were reported from central Tunisia including Sfax where the previous all-time record was 47 C. One report from Greece was actually closer to 60 C but may be either an error or fire-affected. Severe wildfires erupted all over the hot zone. Some believe that these super heat waves are the combined result of ongoing AGW climate change and after-effects of the water vapour eruption of the Tonga undersea volcano last year. The central Med heat wave (which was not quite as relentless as the Arizona version, a few days recently have been temperate) was the result of a depressed jet stream in July over the Atlantic forcing superheated Saharan air to escape northeast, with less of a west to north exit or a southwesterly exit over the Atlantic, that are more normal outcomes. In some past years Saharan heat has spilled into Spain and Portugal then on to France and western Europe in general. This year's setup with depressed heights over the Iberian peninsula has prevented that and Spain has been more moderate, while France and Britain, Ireland have been a bit cooler than average for July after quite a warm June. CET values were 17.0 June (5th warmest) and 16.1 July (near median of all data and 0.7 below recent 30-yr normal). An average for five locations in Ireland was 15.1 C, 1981-2010 average 15.5 C. There are signs of a return to previous years' western Europe heat plume in mid-August however. My take is that the southwest heat dome will come back to life during August, spread north and then east. This may be an August similar to 1948, 1953 and 1973 all of which were fairly close to average in the east until the last week, then went into broiling heat waves with many records set. Then I speculate that this anomalous warmth will set up over eastern NA for most of the autumn, although the statistical correlation seems to be warm September and November, cool to average October.

+1.5 __ +1.5 __ +1.7 __ +2.0 __ +2.2 __ +3.0 __ -2.0 __ +3.5 __ +2.0

=== === <<<< ---- ANNUAL SCORING for JANUARY - JULY 2023 ---- >>>> === === Best scores for the nine locations are shown with red highlight, best totals for regions in bold. Scoring ranks mainly unchanged in July except for Tom moving past Roger Smith into 9th. Some margins have changed. FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent ___ c/e___ DEN_ PHX_ SEA __ west __ TOTALS DonSutherland1 ___________ 432 _408 _ 448 __1288 __504 _510 _468 __1482 __2770 __451 _410_520 __1381 ____4151 RJay _______________________ 430 _444 _ 431 __1305 __ 525 _454 _476__ 1455 __2760 __341 _415 _541 __1297 ____4057 wxallannj __________________ 425 _440 _ 457 __1322__ 555 _478 _420__ 1453 __2775 __429 _424 _414 __1267 ____4042 ___ Consensus _____________403 _406 _ 455 __1264__ 515 _422 _455 __1392 __2656 _ 381 _397 _522 __1300 ____3956 hudsonvalley21 ____________411 _408 _ 477 __1296 __ 526 _425 _437 __1388 __2684 __352 _350 _533 __1235 ____3919 RodneyS __________________ 396 _390 _422 __1208 __ 349 _395 _478 __1222 __2430 _ 447 _428 _524 __1399____3829 wxdude64 _________________398 _387 _394 __1179 __ 417 _454 _404 __1275 __2454 __ 491 _380 _486 __ 1357 ____3811 BKViking ___________________410 _402 _443 __1255 __477 _414 _461 __ 1352 __2607 __323 _ 330 _412 __1065 ____3672 Scotty Lightning ___________341 _366 _412 __ 1119 __469 _355 _434 __1258 __2377 __ 332 _288 _416 __ 1036 ____3413 ... pro-rated scores are added in brackets for most below this point in the table ... Tom's unimproved score is now a bit ahead of mine ... Tom (6/7) __________________357 _354 _373 __1084 __346 _362 _420 __1128 __2212 __342 _306 _429 __1077 _____3289 (3837) Roger Smith _______________ 362 _312 _340 __1014 __383 _295 _422 __1100 __2114 __321 _326 _502 __ 1149 ____ 3263 ___ Normal _________________292 _306 _342 __ 940 __410 _358 _348 __1116 __ 2056 __372 _ 310 _416 __1096 ____ 3152 Rhino16 (4/7) ______________212 _228 _250 ___ 690 ___310 _288 _216 ___814 __1504 __209 _212 _288 __ 709 ____ 2213 (3873) Stormchaser Chuck (3/7) __201 _238 _196 ___ 635 ___257 _132 _146 ___535 __ 1170 __238 _240 _238 __ 716 ____1886 (4401) so_whats_happening (3/7) _124 _126 _ 180 ___ 430 __ 169 _105 _180 ___ 454 ___884 __122 __168 _218 __ 508 ____1392 (3248) Terpeast (1/7) ______________ 62 _ 44 _ 34 ____ 140 ___84 _ 86 _ 26 ____ 196 ___ 336 __ 10 __ 76 __ 60 __ 146 ____ 482 (3374) rainsucks (1/7) _____________ 42 __32 _ 36 ____ 110 ___ 00 _ 66 _ 48 ____ 114 ___ 224 __ 50 __ 98 __ 84 __ 232 ____ 456 (3192) - - - - - ___ Persistence ____________287 _254 _348 __ 889 ___378 _ 341 _ 422 __1141 ___2030 __ 192 _ 344 _ 370 __ 906 ____ 2936 _______________________________________________________ Best Forecasts * shared with one other forecaster for one month (does not apply to Consensus or Normal, if they qualify, so does the high forecaster score whether tied or not) FORECASTER ____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_ c/e__ DEN_PHX_SEA__west __ Months DonSutherland1 ___________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 2*____2*____0____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2*___1 ____2 _ Jan,Mar RJay _______________________ 1 ____ 3 ____ 1 ____2 ____ 1*___3**___3 ___ 1 ___ 2*___ 0___ 2* ___ 1 ___0 ____0 wxallannj __________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ____2**___1 ____0 ___ 1 ___ 2*___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1* _ May(t),July ___ Consensus ____________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ May hudsonvalley21 ____________1*____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0^____0 ____1* ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1* _ May(t) RodneyS __________________2*____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 2 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 1* ___ 3 ____1 _ Jun wxdude64 _________________0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1*____1 ____0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 _ Apr BKViking __________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1*____ 0 ____0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1* ___1 ___ 0 ____0 Scotty Lightning ___________1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1* ___1 ___ 0 ____0 Tom (6/7) _________________ 1*____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____2*___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 Roger Smith _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____2**___0 ____1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____0 ___ Normal _________________0 ____ 2 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 Rhino16 (4/6) ______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 Stormchaser Chuck (3/6) __2 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1* ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____1 _ Feb so_whats_happening (3/6) _0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 Terpeast (1/6) _____________ 1*____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 rainsucks (1/6) ____________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 (hudsonvalley21 has a tied top score for ORD (Mar) before 1 pt reduced by penalty). Shown as 0^ ----------------------------------------- EXTREME FORECAST SUMMARY So far, 53 of 63 forecasts qualify, 30 of them for warmest, and 23 for coldest ... Jan 6-2, Feb 5-3, Mar 6-3, Apr 5-3, May 3-2, June 1-8, July 4-2 ... 12 of 53 involve a loss where a second ranked forecast has high score. Two of those are a shared loss. FORECASTER _______ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _Apr _May _ Jun _Jul __ TOTALS _ (adjusted for ties) RJay _________________ 5-0 _ 2-1 _ 2-0 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 1-0 _4-0 __ 15-1 ______14.5 - 1.0 StormchaserChuck __ -- --_ 5-1 _ -- --_ 2-2 _ 2-0 _ --- _ --- ___ 9-3 ______ 8.5 - 3.0 RodneyS _____________1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 __ 1-0 _ 4*-1 _0-1 ___ 9-2 ______ 8.5 - 2 DonSutherland ______ 2-0 _ 1-0 _ 3*-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 ___ 8-1 ______ 7.5 - 1.0 Scotty Lightning _____ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 3-1 _ 0-1* _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _0-0 ___4-2 ______ 4.0 - 1.5 ___ Normal ___________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 3-0 _0-0 ___ 4-1 _______ 4.0 - 1.0 Roger Smith _________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _ 1-1*_ 0-0 _1*-0 ___ 4-1 ______ 3.0 - 0.5 hudsonvalley21 ______ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _1-0 _ 1*-0 _ 0-0 _0-0___ 3-0 ______ 2.0 - 0 wxallannj ____________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-1* 0-1* _ 2*-0_1-0 ___ 4-2 ______ 3.0 - 1.0 Tom __________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 2-0 ______ 1.5 - 0 wxdude64 ___________1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 0-0 __1*-1 __ 2-1 ______ 1.5 - 1.0 rainsucks _____________ -- --_-- --_-- --_1*-0 _ -- - _ ---- _ --- ___ 1-0 ______ 0.5 - 0 BKViking _____________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _ 0-0 ___ 1-0 ______ 0.5 - 0 Terpeast _____________ -- --_-- --_-- --_ -- --_ -- - _ 1*-0 _ --- ___ 1-0 ______ 0.5 - 0 so_whats_happening _0-0 _0-1 _ -- --_ -- -- _ -- - _ 0-0 _ --- ___ 0-1 _______ 0.0 - 1 ===========================================

Ranking tables normally account for ties and the case mentioned would be 11th warmest, after five tied at 6th warmest. It would not or at least should not be ranked seventh warmest. Some tables including CET differentiate by second decimals not visible in the table. The apparently tied months are marginally separated by these unprinted second decimals. In some ranking tables, it is up to you to establish ties, the table may be printed without ties identified. Most commonly, that kind of table will have the tied years listed in chronological order. But with everyone tweeting their own versions of climate stats, it is wise to find out whether they respect conventional ranking protocols or not. Also a top ten from a record of thirty years is obviously a bit easier to establish than a top ten from 155 years like NYC or 183 like Toronto. Another source of minor confusion in at least one prominent set of ranks (CET) is the practice of leaving the warmest rank blank until it happens, for example, this is what you see if you click on monthly ranks for CET ... at the bottom of the rankings where they place the warmest months, you find 1st (ranks on right, the ranks on left are in the sense of coldest of 355 in their records) blank for July to December ... further up the table you need to remember that what appears to be 40th warmest August is actually 39th warmest August. (EXCERPT of CET monthly rankings) 355 6.5 1686 6.9 1961 8.0 2022 10.2 1796 13.5 1868 16.4 1818 18.4 1808 18.0 1990 15.6 1780 12.5 1968 8.9 1881 7.3 1857 10.6 1990 11 356 6.6 1898 6.9 2019 8.1 1734 10.2 1944 13.5 1919 16.6 1775 18.4 2013 18.1 1955 15.6 1999 12.6 1959 9.1 1817 7.3 1988 10.6 1999 10 357 6.7 2008 6.9 2022 8.2 1750 10.3 1987 13.5 1947 16.8 1858 18.5 1995 18.2 1911 15.7 1760 12.7 1831 9.2 2022 7.4 1843 10.6 2017 9 358 6.7 1983 7.0 2002 8.2 1961 10.3 1893 13.5 1784 16.9 1798 18.5 1921 18.3 1747 16.0 1795 12.7 1995 9.2 1730 7.4 1828 10.6 1949 8 359 6.8 1975 7.1 1903 8.3 1990 10.3 2014 13.6 1992 16.9 1976 18.6 1976 18.3 2003 16.0 2021 12.8 1921 9.3 1743 7.5 1710 10.7 2018 7 360 6.9 1733 7.1 1945 8.3 1948 10.3 1798 13.6 1727 16.9 1762 18.7 1852 18.6 1947 16.1 2016 12.8 2022 9.4 1938 7.6 1733 10.7 2011 6 361 7.0 2007 7.2 1794 8.4 2012 10.5 1943 13.7 1808 17.0 2023 18.8 1783 18.6 1975 16.3 1949 12.9 2006 9.4 2015 7.7 1852 10.8 2020 5 362 7.1 1834 7.2 1998 8.4 1997 10.5 2020 13.8 1788 17.1 1822 19.2 2018 18.7 2022 16.3 1865 13.0 2005 9.5 1818 7.9 1974 10.9 2006 4 363 7.3 1796 7.3 1990 8.8 2017 10.6 1865 13.8 1758 17.3 1826 19.4 1983 19.0 1997 16.6 1729 13.1 1969 9.5 2011 8.1 1934 11.0 2014 3 364 7.3 1921 7.5 1869 9.1 1938 11.3 2007 13.9 1848 18.0 1676 19.8 2006 19.1 1995 16.9 2006 13.2 2001 9.9 1994 9.6 2015 11.1 2022 2 365 7.6 1916 7.9 1779 9.2 1957 11.9 2011 15.1 1833 18.2 1846 --- 2023 --- 2023 --- 2023 --- 2023 --- 2023 --- 2023 --- 2023 1

I am only seeing 96 at BWI, 97 at DCA is the lone increase today. Scoring table will be adjusted.

According to my stats, since the top ten cold month of Feb 2015, these top ten warm months have been recorded at NYC, near miss 11-15 cases shown in ((( triple brackets ))) ... these are not adjusted for urban heat island, some of these ranks would fall slightly if a progressive u.h.i. adjustment was applied ... : JAN _ 1 (2023) ... (((12 2020))) FEB _ 1 (2018) .. 2 (2017) .. 3 (2023) .. t8 (2020) MAR _ 4 (2016) .. 7 (2020) .. (((t13 2021))) APR _ 2 (2023) .. 3 (2017) .. (((t13 2019))) MAY _ 2 (2015) .. 6 (2018) JUN _ t6 (2021) JUL _ 7 (2020) .. ((( t11 2019, t13 2022 ))) AUG _ 3 (2022) .. 4 (2016) .. 5 (2015) .. t10 (2018) SEP _ 1 (2015) .. t10 (2016) OCT _ 1 (2017) .. 6 (2021) NOV _ 1 (2020) .. 2 (2015) .. (((13 2022))) DEC _ 1 (2015) .. t3 (2021) ________________ That is a total of 25 top ten months and 31 top 15. Feb 2015 was third coldest and since then the highest ranking cold month is t31 coldest Nov 2019.

Current standings as of July 29, 2023 Table remains in forecast table order for now. Errors underlined are the few that are forecasts already passed by actual maxima so far. __ Max values to date ____________ 97 __ 98 __ 97 __ 98 The qualifier for rank is the separation of equal error totals by the rules outlined earlier. This table will be adjusted if or when necessary, and if not, it will be posted again in rank order later in the summer. (table adjusted July 29 for DCA 97) FORECASTER (order of entry) __ DCA _ IAD _ BWI _ RIC _____ Errors ____Total __ Rank __ qualifier (to separate tied totals) GeorgeBM ( 8 ) _________________ 105 _ 103 _ 106 _ 104 ______ 8 5 9 6 ___ 28 ____ 26 StormchaserChuck1 ( 1 ) ________ 104 _ 103 _ 103 _ 104 ______7 5 6 6 ___ 24 ____25 Roger Smith _____________________ 102 _ 102 _ 103 _ 103 ______5 4 6 5 ___ 20 ____ 23 H2O (20) _________________________102 _ 101 _ 102 _ 102 ______ 5 3 5 4 ___ 17 ____20 __ 2nd lowest error (3) ChillinIt (15) ______________________102 __ 98 _ 103 _ 104 ______ 5 0 6 6 ___ 17 ____19 __ lowest lowest error (0) Rhino16 ( 2 ) _____________________ 101 _ 103 _ 102 _ 105 ______ 4 5 5 7 ___ 21 ____24 mattie g (17) ______________________101 _ 103 _ 101 _ 102 ______ 4 5 4 4 ___ 17 ____21 __ highest lowest error (4) wxdude64 (16) ___________________101 __ 99 _ 101 __ 102 ______4 1 4 4 ___ 13____ 17 __ lower lowest error (1) soundmdwatcher (23) ___________ 100 _ 102 _ 104 _ 102 ______3 4 7 4 ___ 18 ____22 Terpeast ( 6 ) ____________________ 100 _ 101 _ 101 _ 100 ______ 3 3 4 2 ___ 12 ____16 __ higher lowest error (2) tplbge (24) _______________________100 _ 100 _ 102 _ 101 ______ 3 2 5 3 ___ 13 ____18 __ higher lowest error (2) GramaxRefugee (19) _____________100 __ 99 _ 100 _ 100 ______ 3 1 3 2 ____ 9 ____10 __ later entry toolsheds (18) ____________________100 __ 98 _ 101 _ 102 ______ 3 0 4 4 ___ 11 ____14 biodhokie (25) ____________________ 99 _ 101 __ 99 _ 101 ______ 2 3 2 3 ___ 10 ____13 __ higher lowest error (2) RickinBaltimore ( 7 ) ______________ 99 __100 _ 100 __ 99 ______ 2 2 3 1 ____ 8 ____ 8 WinstonSalemArlington (22) ______ 99 __ 99 _ 103 _ 101 ______ 2 1 6 3 ___ 12 ____15 __ lower lowest error (1) nw baltimore wx ( 3 ) _____________ 99 __ 99 _ 101 _ 100 ______ 2 1 4 2 ____ 9 ____ 9 __ earlier entry Weather53 (13) ___________________ 99 __ 99 _ 100 _ 101 ______ 2 1 3 3 ____ 9 ____11 __ higher second lowest error (3 vs 2 for 9th, 10th) WxUSAF ( 4 ) _____________________ 99 __ 99 _ 100 __ 99 ______ 2 1 3 1 ____ 7 _____ 7 __ higher lowest error (1) katabatic ( 9 ) _____________________99 __ 98 _ 100 _ 100 ______ 2 0 3 2 ____ 7 _____ 6 __ lower lowest error (0) NorthArlington101 (21) ____________ 99 __ 97 __ 99 __ 99 ______ 2 1 2 1 ____ 6 _____ 4 __ later entry Stormpc (14) ______________________98 _ 102 __ 101 __ 99 ______ 1 4 4 1 ___ 10 ____12 __ lower lowest error (1) MN Transplant ( 5 ) _______________ 98 __ 99 _ 100 __ 99 ______ 1 1 3 1 ____ 6 _____ 3 __ earlier entry Its a Breeze (12) __________________ 98 __ 99 __ 99 _ 100 ______ 1 1 2 2 ____ 6 _____ 5 __ higher second lowest error WxWatcher007 (11) _______________ 98 __ 97 __ 99 __ 99 ______ 1 1 2 1 ____ 5 _____ 2 LittleVillageWx (10) _______________ 98 __ 97 __ 98 __ 98 ______ 1 1 1 0 ____ 3 _____ 1