Roger Smith

Forum-wide contest for 2023 tropical seasonal count. Link at http://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59183-2023-north-atlantic-hurricane-forecast-contest-enter-by-june-4th/

Forum-wide contest for 2023 tropical seasonal count. Link at http://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59183-2023-north-atlantic-hurricane-forecast-contest-enter-by-june-4th/

Forum-wide contest for 2023 tropical seasonal count. Link at http://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59183-2023-north-atlantic-hurricane-forecast-contest-enter-by-june-4th/

Forum-wide contest for 2023 tropical seasonal count. Link at http://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59183-2023-north-atlantic-hurricane-forecast-contest-enter-by-june-4th/

Forum-wide contest for 2023 tropical seasonal count. Link at http://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59183-2023-north-atlantic-hurricane-forecast-contest-enter-by-june-4th/

Forum-wide contest for 2023 tropical seasonal count. Link at http://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59183-2023-north-atlantic-hurricane-forecast-contest-enter-by-june-4th/

Forum-wide contest for 2023 tropical seasonal count. Link at http://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59183-2023-north-atlantic-hurricane-forecast-contest-enter-by-june-4th/

Forum-wide tropical seasonal contest in the tropical forum, deadline end of June 4th. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59183-2023-north-atlantic-hurricane-forecast-contest-enter-by-june-4th/

A reminder to the usual crew that June temperature forecast contest deadline approaches. Also a general notice to NYC members that a seasonal hurricane season contest is open for entries to June 4th in the tropical forum. Link at http://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59183-2023-north-atlantic-hurricane-forecast-contest-enter-by-june-4th/

Please note, forum season prediction contest closes end of day June 4th (06z June 5, 2023). NOAA forecast is 12-17, 5-9, 1-4 or median 14.5, 7.0, 2.5. UK Met Office not buying into El Nino suppression and predict 20, 11, 5. UA also higher than expert consensus at 19, 9, 5. (I am saying 19, 12, 4 but not an expert) CSU more conservative at 13, 6, 2. TWC saying 15, 7, 3. The contest is here in this sub-forum. I have invited weather nerds from UK and Irish weather forums to enter also.

Contest deadline extended to June 4th end of day (06z June 5, 2023). Contest open to members of UK forum Net-weather and Irish weather forum on boards.ie, on separate entry portals (I will list any forecasts submitted here). Same deadlines. National hurricane center says 12-17, 5-9 and 1-4, or 14.5/7.0/2.5 so that will enter contest as "NOAA median" although UK Met Office says 20/11/5. CSU is predicting 13/6/2 and TWC 15/7/3. I will score all of them but ranks will not affect your contest ranks. Edit any forecast already placed in the thread without notice needed, as I will construct a table of entries from what I see on 5th of June.

=== === <<<< ---- ANNUAL SCORING for JAN-MAY 2023 ---- >>>> === === Best scores for the nine locations are shown with red highlight, best totals for regions in bold. FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent ___ c/e___ DEN_ PHX_ SEA __ west __ TOTALS RJay _______________________313 _324 _ 335 __ 972 __396 _325 _284__ 1005 __1977 _295 _296 _384 __975 ____2952 DonSutherland1 ___________ 288 _264 _ 314 __ 866 __316 _350 _344 __1010 __1876 __275 _296_382 __ 953 ____2829 hudsonvalley21 ____________271 _270 _ 335 __ 876 __356 _313 _293 __ 962 __1838 __292 _316 _359 __ 967 ____2805 wxallannj __________________ 297 _302 _ 321 __ 920 __ 369 _304 _322__ 995 __1915 _ 285 _318 _274 __877 ____ 2792 ___ Consensus _____________273 _274 _ 325 __872 __329 _282 _303 __ 914 __1786 _ 305 _ 302 _360 __967 ____2753 wxdude64 _________________300 _303 _312 __ 915 __253 _296 _260 __ 809 __1724 __333 _246 _342 __ 921 ____2645 RodneyS __________________ 254 _254 _278 __ 786 __ 195 _269 _318 __ 782 __1568 _ 367 _ 288 _340 __ 995____ 2573 BKViking ___________________276 _272 _303 __ 851 __293 _262 _287 __ 842 __1693 __287 _248 _240 __ 775 ____ 2468 Roger Smith _______________ 268 _226 _264 __ 758 __241 _209 _274 __ 724 __1482 __ 275 _248 _374 __ 897 ____2379 Scotty Lightning ___________213 _236 _290 __ 739 __289 _235 _270 __ 794 __1533 __266 _234 _254 __ 754 ____ 2287 Tom (4/5) __________________225 _230 _247 __ 702 __176 _228 _270 __ 674 __1376 __276 _262 _267 __ 805 _____2181 ___ Normal _________________ 148 _ 176 _210 __534 __ 220 _228 _242 __ 690 __1224 __278 _250 _244 __772 ____ 1996 Stormchaser Chuck (3/5) __201 _238 _196 ___ 635 ___257 _132 _146 ___535 __ 1170 __238 _240 _238 __ 716 ____1886 Rhino16 (3/5) ______________ 174 _174 _200 ___ 548 ___220 _228 _150 ___ 598 __1146 __183 _144 _202 __ 529 ____ 1675 so_whats_happening (2/5) _ 90 _ 82 _ 138 ___ 310 __ 101 _ 41 _ 134 ___ 276 ___ 586 __ 98 __ 96 _ 148 __ 342 ____ 928 rainsucks (1/5) _____________ 42 __32 _ 36 ____ 110 ___ 00 _ 66 _ 48 ____ 114 ___ 224 __ 50 __ 98 __ 84 __ 232 ____ 456 _______________________________________________________ Persistence ________________143 _154 _292 __ 589 ___ 212 _219 _290 __ 721 __1310 __148 _ 310 _ 224 __ 682 ____1992 Best Forecasts * shared with one other forecaster for one month (does not apply to Consensus or Normal, if they qualify, so does the high forecaster score whether tied or not) FORECASTER ____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_ c/e__ DEN_PHX_SEA__west __ Months RJay _______________________ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____2 ____ 1*___2**____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1* ___ 1 ___0 ____0 DonSutherland1 ___________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 2*____2*____0____2 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 2*___0 ____2 _ Jan,Mar hudsonvalley21 ____________0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0^____0 ____1* ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1* _ May (t) wxallannj __________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1*____0 ____0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1* _ May (t) ___ Consensus ____________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ May wxdude64 _________________0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____1 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 _ Apr RodneyS ___________________1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1* ___ 3 ____0 BKViking __________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1* ___0 ___ 0 ____0 Roger Smith _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1*____0 ____1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____0 Scotty Lightning ___________1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1* ___0 ___ 0 ____0 Tom (4/5) _________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____2*___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 ___ Normal _________________0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 Stormchaser Chuck (3/5) __2 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1* ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____1 _ Feb Rhino16 (3/5) ______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 so_whats_happening (2/5) _0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 rainsucks (1/5) ____________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 (hudsonvalley21 has a tied top score for ORD (Mar) before 1 pt reduced by penalty). Shown as 0^ ----------------------------------------- EXTREME FORECAST SUMMARY So far, 38 of 45 forecasts qualify, 25 of them for warmest, and 13 for coldest ... Jan 6-2, Feb 5-3, Mar 6-3, Apr 5-3, May 3-2 ... 10 of 35 involve a loss where a second ranked forecast has high score. Two of those ten are a shared loss. FORECASTER _______ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _Apr _May ____ TOTALS _ (adjusted for ties) RJay _________________ 5-0 _ 2-1 _ 2-0 _ 1*-0_ 0-0___ 10-1 _______9.5 - 1 StormchaserChuck __ -- --_ 5-1 _ -- --_ 2-2 _ 2-0___ 9-3 _______8.5 - 3 DonSutherland ______ 2-0 _ 1-0 _ 3*-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 ___ 7-1 _______ 6.5 - 1 RodneyS _____________1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 __ 1-0 ____ 5-0 _______ 5.0 - 0 Scotty Lightning _____0.0 _ 0-0 _ 3-1 _ 0-1* _ 0-0 ___ 3-2 _______ 3.0 - 1.5 Roger Smith _________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _ 1-1*___ 3-1 _______2.5 - 0.5 hudsonvalley21 ______ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _1-0 _ 1*-0 ___ 3-0 _______2.0 - 0 Tom __________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 1*-0____ 2-0 ______ 1.5 - 0 wxdude64 ___________1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 ____ 1-0 _______ 1.0 - 0 wxallannj ____________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-1* 0-1* ___ 1-2 ______ 0.5 - 1.0 so_whats_happening _0-0 _0-1 _ -- --_ -- -- _ -- - ___ 0-1 ______ 0.0 - 1 rainsucks _____________ -- --_-- --_-- --_1*-0 _ -- - ___ 1-0 ______ 0.5 - 0 BKViking _____________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 ____ 0-0 ______ 0.0 - 0 ===========================================

Predict the temperature anomaly (F deg) for these nine locations, relative to their 1991-2020 averages: DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA and also add on your forecasts for their highest summer maximum readings (annual). Deadline 06z June 1st, with small late penalties (summer maximum contest will close mid-June if anyone wanted to enter later)

28.42" of rain fell at one location in Guam. GFS continues to stall Mawar east of Taiwan, but latest track across N Pac is closer to Gulf of Alaska.

If the GFS is correct, Mawar tracks west towards Luzon and stalls east of Taiwan around 29th, then is caught up in the subtropical jet and moves all the way across the Pacific around 35-40N to slam into the west coast of the U.S. by about June 8-10. That would dump a lot of subtropical heat into the circulation and might be a signal of a very hot spell in the central and eastern U.S. by mid June.

Will go with 19/12/4. Lots of entries, thanks for entering. Edit at your pleasure until I post a notice of final call for forecasts around June 1st to 3rd depending on situation. If I have not posted the notice, I have not copied your forecast (have been reading them). So no need to post a notice of edit.

My location is approx 200-300 miles south of the fires in n BC and n/c Alberta. We had some smoke here during the recent hot spell but now that the flow is more south to southwest (and cool/wet today) our air quality has improved. For several days Edmonton Alberta has had "dangerous" air quality readings like we had here in summer 2021 after the heat dome and lightning caused fires in our region. Some rain is now falling on some of the fires so the volume of smoke being generated should gradually decrease. A lot of these fires are a long way from any human habitation and are being contained rather than actively suppressed due to their vast extent but some closer to Edmonton are more of a direct threat to settlements. After a very cold March and first half of April, as soon as your weather turned cooler ours became very warm and the anomaly has been in the +6F range since about April 20th. We had readings near 90F for several days last week. Normal around here in mid-May is about 65F. Today it is only 52F with clouds scudding over after a steady rain ended. This is the first really cool day we have had since the change of pattern.

Final scoring for May 2023 Scoring is based on the end-of-month anomalies in the previous post. FORECASTER _________________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___ TOTAL ___ Consensus _________________ 70 _ 94 _ 72 __ 236 __ 70 _ 92 _ 88 __ 250 __ 486 __ 82 _ 96 _ 56 __ 234 __ 720 wxallannj _______________________ 76 _ 86 _ 46 __ 208 __ 74 _ 92 _ 94 __ 260 __ 468 __ 90 _ 80 _ 62 __ 232 __ 700 hudsonvalley21 ________________ 62 _ 98 _ 62 __ 222 __ 68 _ 86 _ 98 __ 252 __ 474 __ 96 _ 90 _ 40 __ 226 __ 700 Tom ____________________________ 72 _ 92 _ 48 __ 212 __ 52 _ 96 _ 98 __ 246 __ 458 __ 82 _ 94 _ 56 __ 232 __ 690 BKViking ________________________78 _ 86 _ 50 __ 214 __ 66 _ 86 _ 92 __ 244 __ 458 __ 86 _ 96 _ 48 __ 230 __ 688 Rhino16 ________________________ 62 _ 82 _ 88 __ 232 __ 66 _ 96 _ 84 __ 246 __ 478 __ 66 _ 66 _ 46 __ 178 __ 656 wxdude64 _____________________ 64 _ 94 _ 72 __ 230 __ 70 _100 _ 80 __ 250 __ 480 __ 74 _ 46 _ 56 __ 176 __ 656 DonSutherland1 ________________ 72 _ 92 _ 80 __ 244 __ 54 _ 84 _ 94 __ 232 __ 476 __ 58 _ 54 _ 68 __ 180 __ 656 RJay ___________________________ 56 _ 70 _ 86 __ 212 __ 84 _ 82 _ 66 __ 232 __ 444 __ 60 _ 74 _ 62 __ 196 __ 640 StormchaserChuck1 ___________ 20 _ 54 _ 98 __ 172 __ 96 _ 42 _ 56 __ 194 __ 366 __100 _ 86 _ 80 __266 __ 632 Scotty Lightning _______________ 36 _ 70 _ 86 __ 192 __ 84 _ 52 _ 56 __ 192 __ 384 __ 80 _ 96 _ 52 __ 228 __ 612 ___ Normal _____________________ 56 _ 90 _ 66 __ 212 __ 64 _ 82 _ 86 __ 232 __ 444 __ 60 _ 74 _ 32 __ 166 __ 610 Roger Smith ____________________94 _ 64 _ 26 ___ 184 __ 10 _ 64 _ 94 __ 168 __ 352 __ 80 _ 56 _ 98 __234 __ 586 RodneyS _______________________ 98 _ 92 _ 62 __ 252 __ 00 _ 84 _ 70 __ 154 __ 406 __ 78 _ 50 _ 18 ___ 146 __ 552 - - - - - ___ Persistence _________________ 00 _ 12 _ 90 __ 102 __ 96 _ 76 _ 76 __ 248 __ 350 __ 60 _ 96 _ 00 __ 156 __ 506 _________________________________________________ EXTREME FORECAST REPORT DCA (-2.2) a win for RodneyS (-2.1) and a loss for Roger Smith (-2.5). NYC, ATL, DEN, PHX no extreme forecasts. IAH (-0.7) a win for Hudsonvalley21 and Tom (-0.6) and a loss for wxallannj and Roger Smith (-1.0). BOS (+1.7) and ORD (+1.8) StormchaserChuck wins with warmest forecasts. SEA (+3.4) is a win for Roger Smith (+3.5). =======================================

I would be surprised if it fell and nobody mentioned it (unless I missed seeing it) but the NYC record low for May 18th is one of the more recent (1973 41F) and was followed by a daily max of 59 F but the record low maximum was 53F in 1881, the second consecutive low max (17th was 52F and tied in 1915). Those occurred just five and six days after a record high max in 1881 of 93 (May 12) and I think this may be the fastest such turnaround with another similar one in early October of 1881 (88F Sep 28 and record low max 50F min 35F Oct 5th). The opposite sequence (record low max to high max) took only three days in June 1952 (62 22nd, 99 25th). Since the 41F on May 18, 1973, the lowest minimum at NYC was 42F in 1976 with 43F in 1983, 2002 (46F 2003).

Apparently its status is un-named subtropical storm. Let's say for clarity we will count it and assume they include it in the count so we will go with a current value of 1/0/0 for your predictions. If there is some clarification of this before contest closes, I will certainly give people the option of adjusting their forecasts by 1. For now, assume the official count will start at 1/0/0 before named storms are added. I will post some "expert" forecast values before the contest closes to entries. So far they look a bit lower than many recent seasons (CSU is 13, 6, 2). TWC is at 15, 7, 3.

Same format as previous years, simply predict the number of * named storms * hurricanes * major hurricanes Will close off entries around June 1st depending on how many entries we have and status of outlooks at that time. Please note, contest will include any storms named before June 4th (deadline adjusted to 06z June 5, 2023). Also note, count is 1/0/0 as of now, a system in January has been re-classified as an un-named tropical storm. Your forecast should include that one.

Updates on anomalies and projections: __________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA _11th ___ (10d anom) _____ -4.4 _ -2.2 _ +1.4 __ +1.5 _ -1.4 _ -0.5 ___ +5.0 _ -1.6 _ +0.4 _21st ___ (20d anom) _____-2.1 _ -0.1 _ +2.9 __ +1.5 _ +0.6 _ +0.2 ___ +1.8 _ +1.3 _ +5.2 _11th ___ (p20d anom) ___ -2.0 _ -0.5 _ +1.0 __ +1.0 __ 0.0 _ +0.5 ___ +3.0 _ +1.5 _ +4.0 _11th ___ (p27d anom) ___ -1.0 __ 0.0 _ +1.0 __ +1.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +2.0 _ +1.0 _ +3.0 _21st ___ (p31d anom) ___ -0.5 _ +0.5 _ +2.5 __ +2.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___+2.0 _ +1.5 _ +3.5 _27th ___ (p31 anom) ____ -1.0 __ 0.0 __ +2.5 __ +1.5 _ -0.5 _ -0.5 ___ +2.5 _ +2.0 _ +4.0 _31st ____ (final anoms) __ -2.2 _ -0.5 _ +1.7 __ +1.8 _ -0.9 _ -0.7 ___ +2.0 _ +1.3 _ +3.4 _________________________________________ 11th _ Rather close to average so far, with a very warm period setting in over western regions. Projections otherwise are not far from normal. 21st _ A subdued warmth is predicted for rest of the month, went with +1 to +2 anomalies for all locations 21st to 31st to complete the month. Some preliminary scoring will follow. No further snowfall has occurred and the contest standings in the April thread will probably be the final report, but will keep an eye on DEN projections to early June when their season ends. 27th _ Slight changes to projections will result in adjustments to scoring estimates below. 31st - 1st __ Final anomalies now all posted, scoring adjusted.

Table of forecasts for May 2023 FORECASTER __________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA StormchaserChuck1 ___________ +1.8 _ +1.8 _ +1.8 __ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +1.5 __ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.4 Scotty Lightning ________________+1.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 __ +1.0 _+1.5 _ +1.5 ___ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.0 RJay ____________________________ 0.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 __ +1.0 __ 0.0 _ +1.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 _ +1.5 ___ Normal _______________________0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 Rhino16 _________________________-0.3 _ +0.4 _+1.1 __ +0.1 __-1.1 __+0.1 ___ +0.3 _ -0.4 _ +0.7 hudsonvalley21 _________________ -0.3 _ -0.4 _-0.2 __ +0.2 _ -0.2 _ -0.6 __ +1.8 _ +1.8 _ +0.4 wxdude64 ______________________-0.6 _ -0.2 _ +0.3 __ +0.3 _-0.9 _ +0.3 __ +0.7 _ -1.4 _ +1.2 ___ Consensus __________________ -0.7 _ -0.2 _ +0.3 __ +0.2 _ -0.5 _ -0.1 __ +1.1 _ +1.5 _ +1.2 DonSutherland1 _________________-0.8 _ -0.1 _ +0.7 __ -0.5 _ -1.7 _ -0.4 ___ -0.1 _ -1.0 _ +1.8 Tom _____________________________-0.8 _ -0.9 _ -0.9 __ -0.6 _ -0.7 _ -0.6 ___ +1.1 _ +1.6 _ +1.2 wxallannj ________________________-1.0 _ -1.2 _ -1.0 __ +0.5 _ -0.5 _ -1.0 ___ +2.5 _ +2.3 _ +1.5 BKViking ________________________-1.1 __ -1.2 _ -0.8 __ +0.1 _ -0.2 _ -0.3 ___ +1.3 _ +1.5 _ +0.8 RodneyS _______________________ -2.1 __ -0.9 _ -0.2 __ -3.9 _ -1.7 _ +1.2 ___ +0.9 _ -1.2 _ -0.7 Roger Smith ____________________-2.5 _ -2.3 __ -2.0 __ -2.7 _ -2.7 _ -1.0 ___ +3.0 _ +3.5 _ +3.5 --- --- Persistence __ (Apr 2023) _____________ 3.9 _+3.9 _+2.2 ______ +2.0 _+0.3 _-1.9 ________ 0.0 _+1.1 _-2.8 _________________________________________________ Color codes for high and low forecasts.

=== === <<<< ---- ANNUAL SCORING for JAN-APR 2023 ---- >>>> === === Best scores for the nine locations are shown with red highlight, best totals for regions in bold. Slight adjustments are likely for March scores. FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_ c/e___ DEN_ PHX_ SEA __ west __ TOTALS RJay _______________________257 _254 _ 249 __ 760 __312 _243 _218__ 773 __1533 _ 235 _222 _322 __779 ____2312 DonSutherland1 ___________ 216 _172 _ 234 __ 622 __262 _266 _250 __778 __1400 __217 _242_314 __ 773 ____2173 hudsonvalley21 ____________209 _ 172 _ 273 __ 654 __288 _227 _195 __ 710 __1364 __196 _226 _319 __741 ____2105 wxallannj __________________ 221 _ 216 _ 275 __ 712 __ 295 _212 _228 __735 __1447 _ 195 _238 _ 212__ 645 ____2092 ___ Consensus _____________203 _180 _ 253 __636 __259 _190 _215 __ 664 __1300 _ 223 _ 206 _304 __733 ____2033 RodneyS __________________ 156 _ 162 _216 __ 534 __ 195 _185 _248 __ 628 __1162 _ 289 _ 238 _322 __ 849____2011 wxdude64 _________________236 _ 209 _ 240 __ 685 __183 _196 _180 __ 559 __1244 __259 _200 _286 __ 745____1989 Roger Smith _______________ 174 _ 162 _ 238 __ 574 __231 _145 _ 180 __ 556 __1130 __ 195 _192 _276 __ 663 ____1793 BKViking __________________ 198 _ 186 _ 253 __ 637 __227 _176 _ 195 __ 598 __1235 __ 201 _154 _ 192 __547 ____1782 Scotty Lightning ___________ 177 _166 _ 204 __ 547 __205 _183 _214 __ 602 __ 1149 __ 186 _138 _202 __ 526 ____1675 Tom (3/4) __________________153 _138 _ 199 ___ 490 __124 _132 _ 172 __ 428 __ 918 __ 194 _168 _ 211 __ 573 _____1491 ___ Normal _________________ 92 __ 86 _144 __ 322 ___156 _146 _156 ___ 458 __ 780 __ 218 _ 176 _ 212 __ 606 ____1386 Stormchaser Chuck (2/4) __181 _184 _ 98 ___ 463 ___161 _ 90 _ 90 ___ 341 __ 804 ___ 138 _154 __158 __ 450 ____1254 Rhino16 (2/4) ______________112 _ 92 _112 ___ 316 ___154 _132 _ 66 ____ 352 __ 668 ___117 __ 78 __156 __ 351 ____ 1019 so_whats_happening (2/4) _ 90 _ 82 _ 138 ___ 310 __ 101 _ 41 _ 134 __ 276 __ 586 __ 98 __ 96 _ 148 __ 342 _____ 928 rainsucks (1/4) _____________ 42 __32 _ 36 ___ 110 ___ 00 _ 66 _ 48 ____ 114 ___ 224 __ 50 __ 98 __ 84 __ 232 ____ 456 _______________________________________________________ Persistence ________________143 _142 _202 __ 487 ___ 116 _143 _214 __ 473 __ 960 ___ 88 _ 214 _ 224 __ 526 ____1486 Best Forecasts * shared with one other forecaster for one month (does not apply to Consensus or Normal, if they qualify, so does the high forecaster score whether tied or not) FORECASTER ____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_ c/e__ DEN_PHX_SEA__west __ Months RJay _______________________ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____2 ____ 1*___2**____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1* ___ 1 ___0 ____0 DonSutherland1 ___________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 2*____2*____0____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 2*___0 ____2 _ Jan,Mar hudsonvalley21 ____________0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0^____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____0 wxallannj __________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1*____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 ___ Consensus ____________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____0 RodneyS ___________________0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____1 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1* ___ 3 ____0 wxdude64 _________________0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____1 _ Apr Roger Smith _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1*____0 ____1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 BKViking __________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 Scotty Lightning ___________1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 Tom (3/4) _________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 ___ Normal _________________0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 Stormchaser Chuck (2/4) __2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____1*____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____1 _ Feb Rhino16 (2/4) ______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 so_whats_happening (2/4) _0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 rainsucks (1/4) ____________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 (hudsonvalley21 has a tied top score for ORD (Mar) before 1 pt reduced by penalty). Shown as 0^ ----------------------------------------- EXTREME FORECAST SUMMARY So far, 33 of 36 forecasts qualify, 22 of them for warmest, and 11 for coldest ... Jan 6-2, Feb 5-3, Mar 6-3, Apr 5-3 ... 8 of 33 involve a loss where a second ranked forecast has high score. One of those eight is a shared loss. FORECASTER _______ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _Apr _____ TOTALS _ (adjusted for ties) RJay _________________ 5-0 _ 2-1 _ 2-0 _ 1*-0____ 10-1 _______8.0 - 1 StormchaserChuck __ -- --_ 5-1 _ -- --_ 2-2 ____ 7-3 _______6.5 - 3 DonSutherland ______ 2-0 _ 1-0 _ 3*-1 _ 1-0 ____ 7-1 _______ 5.5 - 1 RodneyS _____________1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 _____ 4-0 _______ 4.0 - 0 Scotty Lightning _____0.0 _ 0-0 _ 3-1 _ 0-1* ____ 3-2 _______ 3.0 - 1.5 Roger Smith _________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 ____ 2-0 _______1.5 - 0 hudsonvalley21 ______ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _1-0 ____ 2-0 _______1.5 - 0 wxdude64 ___________1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _____ 1-0 _______ 1.0 - 0 Tom __________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _____ 1-0 ______ 1.0 - 0 wxallannj ____________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-1* ___ 1-1 ______ 0.5 - 0.5 so_whats_happening _0-0 _0-1 _ -- --_ -- -- ____ 0-1 ______ 0.0 - 1 rainsucks _____________ -- --_-- --_-- --_1*-0 ____ 1-0 ______ 0.5 - 0 (all others) ___________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _____ 0-0 ______ 0.0 - 0 ===========================================

April 2023 made it all the way to 7th place ... Update at end of day, 2.32" in total, month ends 7th wettest April. Currently 20 wettest Aprils are: 1. __ 14.01" 1983 2. __ 13.05" 2007 3. ___ 8.77" 1874 4. ___ 8.26" 1980 5. ___ 8.05" 1973 6. ___ 7.85" 2014 7. ___ 7.70" 2023 8. ___ 7.05" 1988 t9. ___ 6.62" 1901, 1984 11. ___ 6.33" 1996 12. ___ 6.27" 1913 13. ___ 6.14" 1958 14. ___ 6.13" 1909 15. ___ 6.05" 1924 t16. ___ 5.90" 1906, 1987 18. ____ 5.85" 1929 19. ____ 5.78" 2018 20. ____ 5.67" 1982 _______________________________ All this after an essentially dry spell 2nd to 20th. Although the monthly summary is not available yet, adding the daily climate 60/50 temps gives totals of 1987 1469 and averages of 66.2 49.0 57.6 F so 2010 (57.9) held on and this was the second warmest April (now confirmed). 2017 now falls to third (57.2).