burrel2

Just for reference. The snow storm from last week was modeled to be 36-40 degrees by all the global models the night before the event for my backyard. That storm had a similar thermal profile to the one being shown. As it turns out I got down to 31.5 degrees and got over 3.25 inches of snow from just .35 inches of liquid. And the snow started sticking within a few minutes of falling. Now, if we only manage 1/10th of liquid with this storm then that might be problematic for accumulation(due to the boundary layer/mixing). But i mean you're only getting 1 inch even if every flake sticks anyways in that scenario. I guess my point is you don't need inch+ precip totals to overcome a very a shallow boundary layer. As long as we get 1/4 to 1/2 inch of liquid we should get a nice accumulating snow from this system,(if the thermal profiles are modeled correctly). If you're below .25 liquid totals for this storm, then yes, you probably won't get much accumulation outside the mountains.

Here is the 7am Thursday sounding for mby off the 12z GFS. That sounding has the freezing layer just 600 feet off the ground. If that sounding is correct, I have no doubt that I would be seeing accumulating snow with surface temps around freezing.

Surface temps are a non-issue with this storm for most folks, as modeled. Let me explain: If per say, the models were showing a profile with -4c 850mb temps, 0c 925mb temps, 1c 950mb temps and 3c surface temps. We would be in trouble in that scenario as we would be dealing with lots of white rain and a thick boundary layer that wouldn't want to give up the fight. That is not what any of the models are showing for this storm. There are (on average for mby) showing -4c 850mb temps, -2c 925mb temps, -.5c 950mb temps, and 3c surface temps. As a result, the above freezing layer is only a few hundred feet deep at most on the globals, and any decent precip rates in that profile will quickly get the surface to 32/33. The globals never pick up on this, especially at this range. So it's no surprise they are showing 6 straight hours of 37 degree rain/snow. In reality,(if their thermal profiles are right). that would mostly be 32/33 snow for everyone fortunate enough to get good rates, assuming your location has the good thermal profile I described above.

Yep, EURO is a swing and a miss. Luckily it's on an island with that scenario. CMC/ukmet/GFS/JMA are in agreement against what the Euro is showing for now.

Yes, in fact, ratio's could be >10:1. Here's the 850mb temps at 7am Thursday. -7C over Charlotte.

Here's the last panel of the ukmet. Vaild 7am Thursday morning.

If you average out the models it looks to me like snow would start in the upstate sometime around daybreak Thursday morning.

Yea. Globals are keeping the surface too warm given the thermal profile. In fact they’re all showing a push of colder air at 925mb

Every sounding ive looked at is saturated up to 250mb Thursday morning. Growing dendrites shouldn’t be a problem.

Got toe mighty! Gfs cmc and ukmet are all major hits for northern Ga/upstate sc. ukmet looks the best of them all at 144hrs!

I was 3 years old in 88 so i don't remember that one.

3 inches of slop mixed with sleet. notice the donut hole over Oconee/Pickens county.

The biggest snow I've ever seen in my backyard is 5.75 inches, 2nd biggest is 4 inches. That's over a 30 year period. Please feel free to name another city in the Southeast outside of Florida who hasn't gotten a bigger storm than that over the past 30 years.

Best I can tell the ukmet favors the EURO more than the GFS at 144hrs. ICON looks like it's setup for a monster storm at 180hrs as well. JMA doesn't leave a cutoff low behind in the Southwest. It appears the GFS is on the far end of guidance with that feature at the moment. Hopefully it's wrong. for the record, the CMC leans more towards the GFS in regards to the energy retrograding in to a closed low over the southwest before kicking east.

It paid off though, lol.

I went deer hunting in Terre Haute, Indiana the 2nd week of November and got blasted with 4 inches of snow while I was in the stand and temps dropped to 5 degrees with a high of 12 the next day. Turns out that was the coldest air the Eastern US has seen all winter.

Believe it's been a good year for the midwest. Just going off my memory. I know Indiana has scored several nice events. (Not that it makes it any better for us or the east coast, lol)

My optimism paid off for a change! Still time for a bust though I guess...

RAP is always too warm at the surface at this range. furthermore, even it shows the freezing level only few hundred feet above the ground. All that precip would certainly be falling as snow. even if it doesn't have a chance to stick.

arw-2 looking juicy for Northern GA/western upstate!

A few graupel pellets falling in Clemson as well right now.

Timing doesn't look bad to me for the western upstate. Looks like flakes will start to fly around 10:00am. And we all know these events typically show up a few hours ahead of time. Ideal timing for the lake lanier area though, 8:00am-10:00am. Really starting to think they get a couple inches.

12z 3km NAM absolutely jackpots the Lake Lanier area. Looks like 1-3 inches could fall there tomorrow morning. Somebody should start the thread??

Thermal profiles are all snow for the northern upstate. Boundary layer will make it difficult to stick. But if we get any appreciable precip I expect it to fall as snow tomorrow.