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Jonathan

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    Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    HM (I'm paraphrasing here) basically said on Twitter yesterday that the N PAC pattern looks to remain solid for the foreseeable future and if you think the overall large scale pattern will break down, you're probably gonna be wrong. 

    @antmasiello "If you are expecting the North Pacific pattern to flip next month or take on some kind of 2012-like look, you're going to be disappointed. It's not happening."

    "The Siberian stationary wave system and MQI should prevent a torch scenario. This doesn't mean zero periods of warmth or SE ridge. AAM propagation is one wildcard as well as any intraseasonal Indo pulse. But background state should limit their dominance... Gulp."

    "One crazier scenario is that the IO forcing-->N Pac circulation lock, creates a looping RMM, weaker Indo response and right back to dual Pac mode forcing. If that occurs, more significant Arctic shots would be on the way next month after current one settles."

    Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, superjames1992 said:

    I hate living in Florida, at least when it comes to weather.  It kills this hobby for me, but then it is good for my sanity.  No more getting pissed off about storm threats busting since there are no threats in the first place...

    You keep saying that. but with this pattern, you and T-Pain have a better shot at snow in Tallahassee than we do up here!

    • Like 1

    Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    31 minutes ago, No snow for you said:

    Glad I never left this thread. 

    I'm trying to figure out why EVERYONE isn't in here. I guess the cold is intriguing. The whole "YOU CAN'T HAVE SNOW WITHOUT COLD" is a moot point. Sure, that's true, but you also CAN'T HAVE SNOW WITH TOO MUCH COLD. Again, this shows the absolute imperativeness of a -NAO for snow here. Period. And if we can't have a -NAO, we at the very least need some ridging in the Atlantic.

    • Like 1

    The December to Remember 7th-8th blue turd winter threat thread.

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    57 minutes ago, griteater said:

    I mean, it basically always ends up this way right?  Frosty, Jonathon, and Big Frosty sad and moping, saying they can't buy QPF, and they end up with the good stuff.....ha, all in fun Buddy - good luck your way!

    I'm really sorry if it comes off that way. I try not to poop on anyone's parade and nothing would be cooler than to see a system that gets THIS WHOLE SUBFORUM involved. That's just hard to do. I've tried to keep quiet on this one for the most part. I think I'll have mixing issues too here in the foothills. When it comes down to it, everyone roots for each other but everyone wants THEIR yard covered.

    I really do hope you Raleigh guys see snow. You're due. You deserve it.

    The December to Remember 7th-8th blue turd winter threat thread.

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    1 minute ago, snowlover91 said:

    I believe the kuchera ratio factors several of those things in, but the output maps on the Euro are just the standard 10:1 so they are pretty misleading in events like this. For GFS/NAM the kuchera snow maps from pivotal are the way to go, they'll give a better indication of where those models see snow falling and sticking.

    Wxbell has kuchera maps for the euro, are they not the real deal?

    The December to Remember 7th-8th blue turd winter threat thread.

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, snowlover91 said:

    Remember when looking at the Euro output maps that is based off a standard 10:1 ratio. The ratios in this event will be more like 5:1 when you factor in the marginal temps aloft and warm ground. I'd recommend cutting those totals by 60% or so to get a much more realistic idea of what to expect on the ground.

    Agreed, but question. Does the kuchera ratio not take those variables into its output? 

    The December to Remember 7th-8th blue turd winter threat thread.

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

    That's my hope, but it's early in the season. So they might catch this one and us next time!! I would like to see a storm where most on the board sees snow...... Hey I love my fellow weather junkies, But I'm really punching the walls hoping on that NW jog. lol :D

    Same! We need a good old fashioned southern slider then a turn up the coast to give the Raleigh guys a shot too. I always root for everyone, but when it comes down to it, everyone wants it in their own backyard. :lol: 

    • Like 1

    The December to Remember 7th-8th blue turd winter threat thread.

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, yoda said:

    Meteocentre goes out to 144... but precipitation and h5 only goes out to 72

    Gotcha, thanks yoda!

    Anyway, to get back on topic, for those in western NC into southern VA (I-85 / I-77 corridors), do any models have a known sort of bias for not having enough precip on the western side of storm systems? Can't remember ever looking at a radar with a razor-edged cutoff on any side of a storm system. Even if precip is lighter (this isn't a huge system after all), I would think these areas would have a better shot at an all-snow event.

    • Like 1
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