Jonathan

GFS is coming way north with the initial low, just absolutely plowing into the banana high lol

Does the Kuchera ratio on WxBell show sleet as well? Or just snow? Or all?

Bigtime Miller B on the FV3, but still a big winter storm for most of the subforum.

00z GFS is a torcher - onto 6z we go.

48 minutes ago, griteater said:

 

 

Holy cow grit, you're a wizard. Very interesting and educational. Thank you so much for that massive response. I'll have to read it a few more times for sure.

So, on the hovmoller chart, we'd like to see more browns around 120° E rather than all the alternating to settle into our Nino pattern? 

5 hours ago, griteater said:

The tropical forcing is so active right now (has been since late Sep) that variability isn't surprising to see on the modeling, so I personally wouldn't be too concerned with getting into a stuck pattern here in early winter.

grit, question: I see the term "tropical forcing" a lot (here, twitter, etc) what exactly does that term mean?

23 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

It's a cutter pattern.  Trough axis is mainly in the west and tilted back toward the SW.  You have a decent look for AOB normal temps in the SE, but if a storm forms, it's a cutter.  No confluence in the NE, no blocking, main trough too far west, etc.  GFS actually looks a little better at D10.  What you would want to see in this pattern is a trailing wave after a rainer which develops on the tail end of the front.  Then, we could get a little something.

Regarding the general pattern progression, there really isn't anything that suggests December is going to go warm in the means or feature a complete lack of winter weather chances.  Most forecasts that I saw called for the month to be warmer than normal.  So this notion that winter forecasts are busting all over the place doesn't really hold water.  If there is anyone expecting December to be cold and snowy all through the month, then their expectations are way out of whack.  There isn't anything that suggests an overly cold or warm month right now.  And I haven't seen any patterns yet show up in the models that are of the torch variety and that can't be pretty easily fixed.  Sometimes, every variable is wrong.  That takes a long time to work out of.  That is certainly not the case at this point.  December should be variable, with maybe a slight lean toward cooler than normal.  That's my guess.

Thanks, CR. Think a lot of us (me lol) needed to hear this! WxTwitter is a scary place. :lol: 

BASIN-WIDE SUPER NINO PT. II INCOMING kiss all those cold, snowy forecasts goodbye, folks! 

13 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

I'm not seeing all that just yet.

It's definitely happening. This is already moderate bordering on, and heading towards, a strong basin-wide Nino.

Now I guess we hope other favorites override it during winter? 

So, our elusive Modoki Nino is off the table. That is pretty much set. Now I'm reading the Nino itself is basin-wide and now getting into moderate to possibly strong territory? Is that correct? If so, that is a MAJOR bummer for us.

Also, look at all these cutters with the "OMGOMGOMG WE GOTTA HAVE -NAO FOR SNOW IN THE SOUTH". We should all now learn that a -NAO isn't as important as the +PNA/-EPO combination. The Pacific RUINS cold patterns in the east way, way more than the Atlantic does.

Yep. Our elusive modoki Nino is off the table. We're in a basin-wide event with no looking back. EPS has flipped to a terrible Pacific pattern in the LR. Winter is over before it ever began! All those cold forecasts are toast! 

Down to 35° now. Just a cold, miserable rain all day.

Had some sleet around 10am this morning with a temp of 39°. Lasted for about an hour before switching to rain. Beautiful setup coming Thursday. Really wish we were a month ahead, although I think we see plenty more pretty setups this winter.

49 minutes ago, CADEffect said:

I know this is not where I post this question. However, Does anyone know how I can gain access to AmericanWX models page or pay services?

IIRC, Allan's model page is no more. Not sure about other services ATM.

Had some sleet this morning around 10a at 39°F as the precip moved in. Looks like the mnts/foothills are in for some more frozen stuff overnight Wednesday into Thursday.

There's gonna be a hurricane late next week. Hopefully not another Florence repeat. JB's "ridge over troubled water" makes its return just in time for my OBX trip (that I moved from late-SEP to mid-
OCT because I'm tired of being ran off by hurricanes.) LOL glad that worked out. Had I moved it to mid-November there'd have been a 'cane then too.

Had several stationary storms last night. Kept me up until 6:00am and had to be at work at 9:00am. Wasn't in a good mood today. The thunder was incredibly loud, the lightning insanely frequent.

Had another bad storm move through today. Have picked up about 1.75" of rain in about 18 hours.

What exactly in this crap pattern is causing these storms to form and just sit there gaining strength as they go?

CAN IT PLEASE STOP RAINING ALREADY?! I AM ABSOLUTELY S I C K OF IT!!!!!!!!!!! IT RAINS EVERY FRIGGIN DAY FROM NOON TIL 6:00!!!!!! HAS BEEN SINCE MID-JULY!!!!!!! STOP!!!!!! PLEASE!!!!!!!!!

Ok I feel better.

Jesus, when does this stupid wet, rainy, humid, miserable pattern break?! It's rained 90%+ of the days here since mid-July! I hate it! 5" of rain and counting the first 12 days of August.

So, as the average daily temperature for our region begins to fall after today (7/23) let's talk winter in July!

What are the big indices looking like? What ENSO state are we entering into? Solar looking good which would make the QBO good for us? Any early animal coloration or behavior to look for?

Surely this winter can't be worse than the last two...could it?

4 hours ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

Next time you get an itch to swing something, I have some wood that needs to be split.

I have the perfect motion! At least twice an outing I see how far I can overhead bury my 5 iron in the ground.

All this (stupid) warmth is giving me the itch to swing the 3 wood and rip some lips. I don't want to be a warminista, make it stop. We need plowable snow nao.

Hey John @Wow I'm trying to renew a subscription but when I 'Add to Cart' it says I can only purchase one of these and I have already purchased one. My sub expired on 1/9 and it hasn't renewed. (I think my card exp date changed since I originally ordered it in 2016) How can I get another renewal going? Thanks in advance!

14 minutes ago, mrdaddyman said:

We have to have a strong HP to get the cold this far south that we need for a good snowfall but it is a double-edged sword as we have seen this winter. It's just ridiculously hard for everything to come together here just right for snow. Something usually screws it up.

-NAO -NAO -NAO -NAO -NAO

Yes, having a +PNA is wonderful. We need it. It's imperative. Combine that with a -EPO and we can get (and stay) cold as we just seen. -AO? You bet, we need it. -PNA/-AO combination is paramount. But we have seen over and over and over and over again the importance of a -NAO. If we have to rely SOLELY on TIMING a HP moving in tandem with a wave all the way across the nation to score, well, the results speak for themselves. We can score with the +PNA/-AO combo, and we have (DEC 8) but in order to get more of the SE involved, we MUST have a -NAO to slow the flow so we don't HAVE to rely solely on timing. Even if it's just for a few days (and most of the time since 2009, we've only had it for a few days at a time.) we absolutely must have it to score widespread across this forum.

If we have a +PNA/-AO combo, we have about a 10% chance of a widespread, legit winter storm. Give us a -NAO and I'd say that increases the chance to closer to 50%.