Jonathan

I'm calling convective feedback issues here.  

https://imgur.com/X7KcMDp

Not sure why this isn't translating to precip on the GFS.

Just now, StantonParkHoya said:

Quick question -- why, with so many great mets and analysis on this board -- do some post maps from media outlets? Is it just for entertainment purposes?

Yes.

5 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

AccuWeather being very bullish...

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The SREF mean for Martinsville went from 1.81" at 9z to to 2.75" at 15z. Almost a full inch. Danville went from 1.62 to 2.63, just over a full inch.

Jamey Singleton on Twitter: "This doesn't make sense to me. But it's off the same model (GFS). The Euro does it, too. Brings the moisture and dynamics in, with nothing to show as a result.  I'm not buying those snow amounts. #vawx #ncwx https://t.co/hvbZNI3dcP" / Twitter

Interesting tweet from a local met here in southern VA.

I can't believe we just watched the Euro cave to the GFS. Is this 2020? 

Is it me or has this thing shifted from overnight Thursday into Friday to mid-day Friday into Friday night? THAT'S definitely not a good trend.

Maybe by the time the GFS gets to v50 it'll be a semi-reliable weather model.

2 minutes ago, Wow said:

Nevermind the snow maps, the setup is there for a pretty widespread event for NC/VA 

Yeah, absolutely what we need to focus on. Everyone's just excited because it's been so long. WxTwitter going bonkers with huge dreams for the upcoming pattern and us weenies are hungry. We have a setup, details will follow of course.

Also, TT shows a lot of rain where on WxBell it's snow. Looks wonky on TT for whatever reason.

Kinda paltry precip shield on top. Would think some Atlantic moisture would help that.

Per usual, the S VA crew will be praying for a NW trend to commence over the next couple of days.

Hello darkness my old friend. This is where we'll stay again this winter.

I think if nothing else, this winter will prove that the Pacific is much more important than the Atlantic. First -NAO we've had in a decade and it's ruined by a +EPO. We can get winter storms with a +NAO/-EPO by threading the needle but we can't even get a needle to thread with the opposite.

Bummer. At least some folks had white grass for Christmas. 

Had a rogue band of sleet come through about 12:30am, woke up at 7:00am to freezing rain and hasn't changed.

31F
Freezing Rain

The GFS warms up everyone so quick. The entire southern half of VA and all of NC are all above 32F by 18-21z. Wild with this setup.

18Z GFS keeps the low over land. Destroys the CAD. Barrelling right through the HP, even with a stout HP, a 50/50 low and a -NAO/-AO regime. Literally the best set of ingredients we've had since 2009-2010.

Like what do we have to do? 

Man, the EURO op is just not impressed at all.

Looking more and more like a significant foothills ice storm. Yikes.

Someone mentioned the ICON. (I know, it's the ICON but we're looking for trends here lol) It has came in colder at least 4 runs in a row and it has weakened the northern energy a tick each time. Would love to see that SLP trend weaker on other models today.

2 SE winter storms back2back at 200+hrs on the 18z op GFS #lockitin

1 hour ago, griteater said:

MJO amplitude continues to grow on the MJO plots.  Shown are the Euro MJO changes over the last 6 days...and the CFS MJO changes over the last 3 days.  The GFS plots are similar to the CFS though the CFS holds a higher amplitude into Phase 8.  Personally, I believe the CFS has the right idea here. 

The 2 most likely outcomes IMO are: 1) We get an Aleutian Low developing in the mean pattern, with western ridging, and a nice split flow of storm waves into California in the southern stream <OR> 2) The westerly flow is too overwhelming and attempts at western ridging aren't as aggressive, leading to pattern that is maybe cool at times, but not cold enough.

It is interesting to note that the Euro/EPS has been the least aggressive with western ridging - but it is also the least aggressive with the MJO circuit.  It's possible that the EPS trends colder in late Jan / early Feb if it continues to correct the MJO with more amplitude.

 

Grit, I don't know much about the AAM aside from some quick online research, but wouldn't a huge spike in the AAM like is being shown on the EPS be bad for a long-term colder pattern in the east? Seems so from what I've read. Also the EPO is always shown to dive negative but the brakes are always pumped as we get closer.

Seems like every year we add a new oscillation/anomaly/abbreviation that ruins our winters. lol

Hot take: the proper use of the term as we use it is "ensemble" ie, the GFS ensemble. NOT ensembleS.

Still a lot of football left, but I'm a Titans fan and this is kinda crazy.

Just now, franklin NCwx said:

Well.... I would roll with the ensembles over op models in the extended. 

Oh, ok. I didn't realize that was op vs ens. For sure on the ensemble. Let's keep the good juju flowing!