Burghblizz

I guess the wind is screwing us - lol. Not sure how you do a depth if you mostly have under an inch, but have a nice drift too. Most people that tried to measure reported between 1-2”.

Don’t know how much snow I got…probably under 2”….but I do have a nice 8-9” drift in the yard.

Wonder if the average person knows that the wind chill calculation changed. They might be saying “in my day we had 50 below” well…this is it. That’s like -50 with the old calc

I think he meant record low HIGH. Do you know what that is tomorrow? Edit: looks like Tim just answered it

Not sure the last time we spent an afternoon below zero. Even some mornings in recent winters that it got to -8 or -10 climbed above zero the next day.

Yeah the intial “back end” would have been north of the city by now - but with the backbuilding, it hasn’t moved too far in the last 2 hours. Probably lighter intensity though.

KPIT Now down to 12. Went from 40 to 12 from 5 AM to 7 AM. (I’m not really into chasing cold like a few of you are, but that is impressive!)

KPIT is currently SN+ with temp down to 13. Winds gusting to 45. KAGC (which seems notoriously windy) is gusting to 51.

Temp went from 40 to 21…heavy snow with gusts to 43 right now. One thing I thought was going to be interesting was the wind direction. Not often do we get howling SW winds with snow. My south facing, covered front porch has a little drift forming already. My north facing back porch is kind of bare.

I think we will. I think it’s going to be like a nice lake band - awesome for a while, but knowing the end is near. It’s just how much moisture will be left. Honestly I’d rather be us and get 2” than be Chicago getting 5” (when they had hopes of a historic storm 2 days ago)

Well…he caught it…so maybe you can let that part go too.

You’d get put in time aht if you cluttered the model thread with asking how much for your town - lol.

The regional board format hurts that because the dozens of other Mets are posting exclusively in their regions. Whereas they used to have them all discussing the overall model run for basically the entire threat area.

I might be in the minority, but I miss the (very) old board format when we would do model runs as they happened as their own thread. So you would get a lot of this where Mets would chime in and say things like how the upper levels don’t match the surface depiction, and to “expect it to go east/west,etc”. That was very helpful and helped you know what shifts to expect outside of the model biases. They changed that when the board got too big…and one weenie would say “it’s east!” when another would say “it’s coming west!”. Meanwhile, it was just the precip shield over their backyard.

You do good work. A nice service to us in the Pittsburgh forum as well.

That’s an interesting read. I also was just thinking why a nice storm suddenly is out to see other than just bad luck. Would be nice to have the opposite for a change, but it’s just too far. I doubt there is anything meanful for us, but interesting from a modeling perspective.

It’s basically what I was getting at before. Very similar to the GFS, but it continues on and tracks over Det. Meanwhile, GFS reaches a similar point, but retrogrades to western Mich, becomes occluded, and gets the cold air quicker. So the more eastern track actually hurts unless we want to go all in and hope for a 500 mile shift east.

Welcome! Your name seems appropriate for this week.

I don’t know, unless you guys are hoping for a Christmas miracle apps runner, not sure SE is what we want.

Not all cutters are created equal - I don’t think this is about willing it to the east. It’s more about intensity and timing. West could be best. We could have crashing temps with SW winds because of how wound up this is. Meanwhile, places just east of the track (including as far north as Ontario are raining). Different evolution, but our biggest storm ever (11.1950) did something similar. That’s why I think we have a better than normal chance of having more precip when the cold air gets there. The GFS then wants to retrograde it and prolong the snows. That’s what it basically gives us a foot. So no, it isn’t likely. And no it’s not Nov 1950. But I wouldn’t punt yet just because it cuts.

I think more backend than front… It cuts and cuts hard - but it wraps a lot of cold air around it with SLP way west - and a good slug of moisture still. Gives my backyard about 10” if taken literally, but also some far lessor amounts close by. Rain, rapid temp drop, maybe a flash freeze, and then a period of SN+ looks quite possible. Hard to be too excited when there is a raging blizzard in the Midwest, but does still have a chance to be eventful.

Probably not worth over analyzing 5 days out….and it’s definitely not perfect…but 0Z GFS is a step back in the right direction.

I know that it’s more complicated than this - but GFS has that “right where we want it” feel a week out. Foot just southeast…feet farther south east.

Not really as far as actual Buffalo. Looks like the airport got a foot, but the city and places north have stopped snowing for quite some time. It’s south that will get the epic totals. I don’t think there are a lot of posters from actual in Buffalo here, but it would be interesting to see how a typical weenie would react to have 4 or 5’ 20 miles down the road and not get it. Our thread would be NUTS. I have to think most there would take it in stride just due to the nature of LES, AND the frequency of snow in general.

Just over 1” here, with the biggest fatties of the day coming. Roads coating up.