Burghblizz

That boundary is tight. GFS was actually a little colder than 12Z, but didn’t extend the wave of precip as far into Friday. But it largely held serve. The NAM wasn’t anything great for us, but does get a raging sleet storm pretty close. Still think this feels like big hit for NW PA/NE OH. My glimmer of hope is that I have seen the rushing of cold air undermodeled here, similar to the way warm air advecting often is.

Not sure what it is about that storm that you have turned a 6” to 10” storm (with general 6-12” type forecasts into a “bust”. Stop looking at the prettiest color on the best model.

Euro isn’t great, but those more robust snows are inching SE

GFS ensembles are a lot more NW. Overall trend is good, but we really need that high to push down. That’s what I’ll be watching as far as trends in strength and position. I expect the Euro to have its shit all over Lake Erie. But if it’s also south, I’ll really start to believe.

I’m some circles…but there is a great complaint thread for that Another 8-12” would great, especially considering the best contour in the best model isn’t our “forecast” This still “feels” a little NW to me for that, but still time. Gotta get that cold air on the march

No doubt

This look will be likelly be a overstated versus Kuchera because I think it pretends frozen is snow.

Quite a conveyor belt of moisture with this. And these waves don’t look overly strong. It I had to guess, Youngstown does much better than us as far as straight snow, but it really is just a timing issue to get us in the really good stuff.

Part of me thinks that if I’m traveling, I’d rather still have the storm back home (and miss it) versus getting it on the road somewhere. (obviously, nothing beats actually experiencing it in your backyard)

UK has a good hit too. There is a bunch of ice on that GFS. Would be high impact taken literally.

UK south AF. Much better look.

Taken literally, I’m like 20 miles from the foot line, but yeah, not a fan of that look.

The bulk of the rest is north. If GFS rejoins south by tonight, I’ll be dragged in

Euro looking good, so good to have a model without a SE bias on board.. Going to take some threading the needle.

Never like being on the southern end of the good stuff

You’d be complaining about the going almost a year between inches (like Boston almost did) or 1/2” winters (like Philly just had. HALF of those NYC storms happened in the last 20 years. I’m not sure if it’s a remarkable stretch of luck, or a product of climate change. Probably a little of both. Its also all relative. I complained a little about a foot in ‘96, knowing how close it was to being much bigger. Our NWS list is a little understated for big storms, if you draw the line at 16”. Most areas also had 16”+ in ‘03 and ‘94 as well. And 30ish” in ‘78 that was really back to back over 4 days. We fixed the 8-12” drought with some nice ones lately. Been 12 years for 16+. I think it’s time, but enjoy what you got until then

We’ve never seen that

NWS for Boston has been in that 12-18” range. Maybe just recently bumped to 18-24”. So I think that’s just models zeroing in on reality Weenies will Weenie, but 30” to 40” was just model runs (and maybe the 10% NWS high end potential map)

Looks like it has a little more water content than the past few snows - so really nice morning with a freshened up snow pack and it clinging to the trees

It’s crazy how the GFS had this 10+ days out to the day, and with intensity not far off. It was never our storm as it got in a more realistic range, but it was always on the map.

Got to -9 IMBY.

We quite literally just had DCs annual snowfall in the last 9 days. People in my neighborhood are running out of places to put it. And 3 9-12” storms in 4 years, and like 8 6” storms in 4 years But go ahead. Move a mile from DCA. Post often. Or go to Columbus. They ain’t seen 6” in 6 years.

Probably won’t produce the 2-4” that yesterday’s did here, but maybe another 1-2”. Just had a heavier burst winding down. Might crack 15” in the last 8 days, so no complaints.

CMC looks like it wants to blow it up and maybe even retrograde it, which could still put us in the game.

Officially about 13” since last Sunday. If we didn’t have the one warm day in the middle of last week, we’d have a pretty stellar snow pack. Still looking forward to another nice afternoon. See if we can tack on another 2 or 3.