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Burghblizz

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Everything posted by Burghblizz

  1. Burghblizz
    Looks like a more realistic depiction of the NAM. Totals moderated a bit, and scaled way back in the Mon valley.
  2. Burghblizz
    The other interesting thing is that it also has a different orientation of the precip shield. Has precip into NW PA, where 12k is dry. In upstate NY, you have some areas that have 12+, but zero in the 12k. Not sure that is too common. I would expect the differences to be more in micro details. Not sure I understand why that would be the case, but the models can’t even agree with themselves.
  3. Burghblizz
    The thermals really create the boom or bust scenario. Probably more of a tapered look to totals if we were just worried about precip. I do feel a little better about middle of the night/early morning in February versus if it were middle of the day in March.
  4. Burghblizz
    12Z NAM 10:1 strip of 12+ just for fun. I think we would gladly take the old “cut in half rule” here:
  5. Burghblizz
    NAM not giving up - in fact its better for SW PA
  6. Burghblizz
    It’s certainly shifted south away from us enough times
  7. Burghblizz
    Kuchera actually a little more robust. Brutal cutoff though
  8. Burghblizz
    NAM isn’t great for central and southern AGC - but not a complete disaster. Still looking decent northern AGC and Butler. Southern Border counties look in trouble. The one improvement was more moisture to the west, so anyone on the good side of the changeover has a little more time to work. (I know - could just mean staying sucked in longer)
  9. Burghblizz
    Wanna see if the NAM holds on before completely throwing it in.
  10. Burghblizz
    Good write up. The only thing that feels different to me is how far south the NAM and Ukie are (with Canadian being a non storm). Gives me at least some hope that the final solution ticks back south instead of the other way.
  11. Burghblizz
    Euro looking like the GFS did yesterday. 8” IMBY….but AGC is the battleground with a rapid drop off.
  12. Burghblizz
    Was just looking at that. Could be another sign that the it’s GFS Op versus the world.
  13. Burghblizz
    That was the Canadian being contrasted to the GFS. GFS is just too amped up.
  14. Burghblizz
    If that were the only model I saw, I would think we were in for a plain rainstorm, and somewhere between Columbus and Detroit eventually gets nailed. GFS usually doesn’t tick SE in this range. NWS doesn’t seem to be buying it. The non-event scenario would be more due to a progressive, weaker storm that doesn’t tap any cold air (as opposed to a larger one that charges north). Probably won’t have a great idea for 24 hours.
  15. Burghblizz
    Real nice discussion. We normally call it out when they mail it in too, but that’s a good one
  16. Burghblizz
    The old live model threads were nice because there were 4 or 5 Mets chiming in live on what they were seeing. But then weenies would jump in saying things like “it’s coming north!, just because the QPF shading over their house ticked north. Meanwhile, the storm was the other direction. At one point, non-red taggers got banned from them. It’s better now in terms of focused content, but back then you would have more interaction with a larger group (which, yes, sometimes led to fights )
  17. Burghblizz
    I’ll take it since you guys got the lake band . But yeah, it looks like up in the air not only regionally, but locally. Wouldn’t be shocked if it was another one that split our area in terms of impact. Model biases seem out the window too.
  18. Burghblizz
    I’m on the good side of that cutoff, but it’s tight. Hopefully 0Z shows that swath a tick south.
  19. Burghblizz
    NAM has 6”+ and still snowing at 84. Certainly not a bad sign
  20. Burghblizz
    12z….GFS taken literally has more snow than the Euro IMBY… but that look scares me. This will probably flip flop a few times by Sunday, so going to try to put it down for 24 hours
  21. Burghblizz
    The way this winter has gone, I’d sign now for the 5” IMBY with the possibility for more chances the second half of the month.
  22. Burghblizz
    Less brutal cold, but more snow on average when looking at more than the last 15 months. Not all that horrible. So now that we’ve established that it’s been a mild winter, time to focus on a potential pattern flip.
  23. Burghblizz
    Good assessment. I’m going to try to enjoy some longer walks with the dog, and hope for a kick ass final 5-6 weeks.
  24. Burghblizz
    March ‘22 had an 8” ish storm around around the 12th, and then a very active LES pattern even into the latter part of the month. So it was a good month, although lots of melting in between events. But hey, it was March. Other thing I remember is someone (I think Ahoff) started a spring thread in February since it was sucking. Must have worked as a reverse jinx as we finished strong. Threaded the needle nicely on the bigger storm as this long area of precip trained for awhile
  25. Burghblizz
    Funny how the NAM is a cold outlier. Not sure if maybe it’s overdoing the rates leading to more dynamic cooling. But it’s been consistently showing that backend snow.
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