Burghblizz

The NWS discussion from yesterday said something to the effect that the eventual forecast might be more of a “middle ground” as opposed to the “most likely”. I’m not sure if that spread has closed that much in the last 24 hours. I’d probably put up something like “2-5 inches, but possibly less to the south and in lower elevations where there could be more rain”. When we talk elevation in this area, forecasters love to just say ridges versus non ridges. In reality it’s more nuanced with borderline P types. I think you’ll see some differences in the metro area between 800’ and 1200’

GFS looks like it might suck slightly less

The NWS has a HWO for Butler, Armstrong, Lawrence counties, noting that an advisory or warning might be needed in the next 36 hours. They noted too much uncertainty for right now. Thats fair and is a better strategy than CTPs “WSW kind of” strategy.I bet they are waiting for the rest of 12Z to make a call for watches for the northern metro area. I think they wait on AGC regardless, and add it if things trend well by tonight. Just too many red flags still.

Looks like a more realistic depiction of the NAM. Totals moderated a bit, and scaled way back in the Mon valley.

The other interesting thing is that it also has a different orientation of the precip shield. Has precip into NW PA, where 12k is dry. In upstate NY, you have some areas that have 12+, but zero in the 12k. Not sure that is too common. I would expect the differences to be more in micro details. Not sure I understand why that would be the case, but the models can’t even agree with themselves.

The thermals really create the boom or bust scenario. Probably more of a tapered look to totals if we were just worried about precip. I do feel a little better about middle of the night/early morning in February versus if it were middle of the day in March.

12Z NAM 10:1 strip of 12+ just for fun. I think we would gladly take the old “cut in half rule” here:

NAM not giving up - in fact its better for SW PA

It’s certainly shifted south away from us enough times

Kuchera actually a little more robust. Brutal cutoff though

NAM isn’t great for central and southern AGC - but not a complete disaster. Still looking decent northern AGC and Butler. Southern Border counties look in trouble. The one improvement was more moisture to the west, so anyone on the good side of the changeover has a little more time to work. (I know - could just mean staying sucked in longer)

Wanna see if the NAM holds on before completely throwing it in.

Good write up. The only thing that feels different to me is how far south the NAM and Ukie are (with Canadian being a non storm). Gives me at least some hope that the final solution ticks back south instead of the other way.

Euro looking like the GFS did yesterday. 8” IMBY….but AGC is the battleground with a rapid drop off.

Was just looking at that. Could be another sign that the it’s GFS Op versus the world.

That was the Canadian being contrasted to the GFS. GFS is just too amped up.

If that were the only model I saw, I would think we were in for a plain rainstorm, and somewhere between Columbus and Detroit eventually gets nailed. GFS usually doesn’t tick SE in this range. NWS doesn’t seem to be buying it. The non-event scenario would be more due to a progressive, weaker storm that doesn’t tap any cold air (as opposed to a larger one that charges north). Probably won’t have a great idea for 24 hours.

Real nice discussion. We normally call it out when they mail it in too, but that’s a good one

The old live model threads were nice because there were 4 or 5 Mets chiming in live on what they were seeing. But then weenies would jump in saying things like “it’s coming north!, just because the QPF shading over their house ticked north. Meanwhile, the storm was the other direction. At one point, non-red taggers got banned from them. It’s better now in terms of focused content, but back then you would have more interaction with a larger group (which, yes, sometimes led to fights )

I’ll take it since you guys got the lake band . But yeah, it looks like up in the air not only regionally, but locally. Wouldn’t be shocked if it was another one that split our area in terms of impact. Model biases seem out the window too.

I’m on the good side of that cutoff, but it’s tight. Hopefully 0Z shows that swath a tick south.

NAM has 6”+ and still snowing at 84. Certainly not a bad sign

12z….GFS taken literally has more snow than the Euro IMBY… but that look scares me. This will probably flip flop a few times by Sunday, so going to try to put it down for 24 hours

The way this winter has gone, I’d sign now for the 5” IMBY with the possibility for more chances the second half of the month.

Less brutal cold, but more snow on average when looking at more than the last 15 months. Not all that horrible. So now that we’ve established that it’s been a mild winter, time to focus on a potential pattern flip.