Burghblizz

Those areas aren’t staying in the waves of precip as long due to the slightly more progressive nature. So it was more timing as opposed to system strength. GFS has a chance to be the king here. I feel like others are trending to it more than it’s trending to others. But you still have to be concerned about a tick the wrong way.

I weenied out a bit and looked at the soundings for my backyard (Cranberry). It was right on pivotals sleet line, but the soundings never went above freezing at any level. I’d love to see another model join the GFS though. Getting real close to something nice for northern AGC and points N.

Maybe - but I would think they would manually adjust that for a public forecast

Damn…and his foot line is IMBY. I wouldnt look too much into it even if he is a good met. Our locals lose attention to detail quickly when it’s out of the viewing area.

They were taking victory laps left and right in the MLK storm, even though the total fell within every outlets range. If they want to score a win though, this might be the storm to do it. Somewhere from PGH to the NW figures to really cash in. But it would be a bold call at this point to slide 6”+ type totals into the city.

Might not translate to snow output, but the high presses east a little quicker in NAM. Good trend. Verbatim still probably a helluva sleet storm.

GEFS lookin better.

That counts a lot of sleet as 10:1 snow, especially in Kentucky and Southern Ohio. But if we can get that warm layer out..

That boundary is tight. GFS was actually a little colder than 12Z, but didn’t extend the wave of precip as far into Friday. But it largely held serve. The NAM wasn’t anything great for us, but does get a raging sleet storm pretty close. Still think this feels like big hit for NW PA/NE OH. My glimmer of hope is that I have seen the rushing of cold air undermodeled here, similar to the way warm air advecting often is.

Not sure what it is about that storm that you have turned a 6” to 10” storm (with general 6-12” type forecasts into a “bust”. Stop looking at the prettiest color on the best model.

Euro isn’t great, but those more robust snows are inching SE

GFS ensembles are a lot more NW. Overall trend is good, but we really need that high to push down. That’s what I’ll be watching as far as trends in strength and position. I expect the Euro to have its shit all over Lake Erie. But if it’s also south, I’ll really start to believe.

I’m some circles…but there is a great complaint thread for that Another 8-12” would great, especially considering the best contour in the best model isn’t our “forecast” This still “feels” a little NW to me for that, but still time. Gotta get that cold air on the march

No doubt

This look will be likelly be a overstated versus Kuchera because I think it pretends frozen is snow.

Quite a conveyor belt of moisture with this. And these waves don’t look overly strong. It I had to guess, Youngstown does much better than us as far as straight snow, but it really is just a timing issue to get us in the really good stuff.

Part of me thinks that if I’m traveling, I’d rather still have the storm back home (and miss it) versus getting it on the road somewhere. (obviously, nothing beats actually experiencing it in your backyard)

UK has a good hit too. There is a bunch of ice on that GFS. Would be high impact taken literally.

UK south AF. Much better look.

Taken literally, I’m like 20 miles from the foot line, but yeah, not a fan of that look.

The bulk of the rest is north. If GFS rejoins south by tonight, I’ll be dragged in

Euro looking good, so good to have a model without a SE bias on board.. Going to take some threading the needle.

Never like being on the southern end of the good stuff

You’d be complaining about the going almost a year between inches (like Boston almost did) or 1/2” winters (like Philly just had. HALF of those NYC storms happened in the last 20 years. I’m not sure if it’s a remarkable stretch of luck, or a product of climate change. Probably a little of both. Its also all relative. I complained a little about a foot in ‘96, knowing how close it was to being much bigger. Our NWS list is a little understated for big storms, if you draw the line at 16”. Most areas also had 16”+ in ‘03 and ‘94 as well. And 30ish” in ‘78 that was really back to back over 4 days. We fixed the 8-12” drought with some nice ones lately. Been 12 years for 16+. I think it’s time, but enjoy what you got until then

We’ve never seen that