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Burghblizz

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Everything posted by Burghblizz

  1. Burghblizz
    Those Southern Ohio zones (which would figure to do similar to us with this) have a lower threshold. They can pop em up with 4”+ expected
  2. Burghblizz
    These days are nice when u have a decent snowpack.
  3. Burghblizz
    60 days ago...:-)
  4. Burghblizz
    NAM a little better. Looks like 7-8”. Double digits into Greene and Fayette. Nice little 12-15” weenie area in northern WV. Just need to pop that north a bit (I’m talking that precip area, knowing that it will be shaved down in real life)
  5. Burghblizz
    That was me in Dec ‘92 and Jan 96. But I’ve learned that I’ll deal with that if I get a foot. That’s kind of my threshold Now 1.16 was a kick in the nuts. Got 5” while 40 miles away got 20” Thankful to have been on the good side of that in 03 and 2010
  6. Burghblizz
    Here were the Euro ensembles on Saturday. Not 5 days out, 48 hours out. As tight of a cluster as you see, with one major outlier. It wound up west of that outlier. Not sure what caused performance that poor, but certainly some time for this to slide NW this time. (Again, from Saturday)
  7. Burghblizz
    The “science” is the southeast bias in the models. Let’s watch them come to us over the next 24 hours (Of course when we need it...lol)
  8. Burghblizz
    That used to be taken from NWS. They started doing their own like 15 years ago
  9. Burghblizz
    I’m not sure places north and west did that great, even into western Ohio and New York State. Seems like a lot of low ratios and quick moving. I didn’t really look until now, but wanted to see what we missed out on.
  10. Burghblizz
    Right - I like the old “significant accumulation possible” as an alert. But I’d wait for actual totals. Or you pop up a couple scenarios.
  11. Burghblizz
    Lot of moisture streaming up though, and better HP placement. I don’t think this has the 10” potential the last one did, it I’d rather shovel 5” of snow than 10” of potential
  12. Burghblizz
    Skating rink right now, with a lot of precip to go. At least it’s pretty fast moving. We haven’t had a true ice storm in awhile - usually pretty transient on the way to rain. But this looks like it could get rough. I used to like them as a kid because they “felt” like a snowstorm. You got your NWS headlines and off school.
  13. Burghblizz
    It’s Amazing our propensity for night snows
  14. Burghblizz
    Lol - don’t start. I already found myself noticing HRRR soundings holding on to snow a little longer. Maybe we can squeeze out a quick second thump before the ice
  15. Burghblizz
    Thumpin hard right now. I went outside. Need to enjoy every flake for the time spent - lol
  16. Burghblizz
    Icy as hell out again. Not sure if there was more freezing drizzle overnight, or this first batch of snow started as some
  17. Burghblizz
    It’s been a fun year overall, despite this recent mess. Still think this winter has something more in store
  18. Burghblizz
    It does show some blocking and a decent (6”+) hit of snow. Also shows it retrograding through Ohio, and then creating a mess. I’m going to really try not to model watch again until Wednesday
  19. Burghblizz
    At least we know 200 mile NW jogs are possible in 24 hours for future reference (when needed) This is nuts. Acodcotally you sometimes see a large late shift back SE to buck the trend but this just didn’t quit. I’m curious to see how it plays out. Maybe we can get a nice front batch out of this, and more sleet to hold on to snowpack.
  20. Burghblizz
    Germans keeping it mostly clean in AGC (although I guess they don’t believe in other P types)
  21. Burghblizz
    Were they there in 2010? Think that’s when Dallas scored a foot. That likely will never be matched there.
  22. Burghblizz
    Just saying it’s a mesoscale model that is usually over amped with a west bias outside of 36 hours. If the globals all trend that way tonight, then I’ll be more worried
  23. Burghblizz
    You know how sometimes the NAM reels us in when we are on the western fringe? This is that run for Illinois. I doubt other guidance follows. And when it’s right or “on to something” outside 36 hours, it’s usually with rapidly deepening systems
  24. Burghblizz
    I was about to post the same “probably too early” look at it as well. It’s showing that first wave to be pretty robust. 5” by noon Monday would be off and running
  25. Burghblizz
    I’m less concerned about total output at this point and more concerned with sliding that boundary to the SE. Keep some wiggle room
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