Burghblizz

You can have him

She was saying that on Twitter too. We’ll see if it materializes. We didn’t come out guns blazing this time, but still will be interesting. About an inch or so in Monroeville. Relatively windy with this current burst

HRRR still likin us

This is not news. It’s always been trying to get a nice front end, and then see how the coastal develops over the second 24-36 hour period. This version of the NAM didn’t produce the way some others have. The other thing we have been watching is the heaviest intial band slipping a bit south. This NAM shows that a bit too.

We’ll let yinz know how this front end is looking

Shift changes

Great analysis

It will be fun nowcasting the intial surge. Need to get off to a good start

Agree - we are in a good spot between those two mitigators (agitators). But they lurk. I like that our swath has widened. I tend to think that even though that intial heavier burst is just to the south, mixing is much more of an issue. So I’d still bet North Hills does better than South Hills, even though total QPF is lighter

Euro has that intial heavier band setting up just south. Eventually evens out a bit. This all would require clean front end and a prolonged back end - but looks very much in play. Love the relative wide swath everywhere

Shows about 1.3” QPF too. Its still a little dicey with temps - but has a 12” bullseye in NE AGC. More slop to the south

If you were hoping for some coastal love, the NAM won’t disappoint. Fires like 20” back to Indiana county - Everywhere else around AGC foot-ish. Still trying to mix south a bit

Euro looking close to that same 8-9” type output in the city or just south - but instead of the snow hole over Morgantown, it has a 12” bullseye. And the totals trail off from the city north. This really shows some of the complexity with track, temps, and the dry slot (which could hurt those borderline temps, in addition to less precip. So double whammy where that happens). I think Euro overall is a slightly better look for us since the dry slot seems to be in central WV. So more wiggle room as long as that shear to the NE doesn’t get us

I have a feeling beyond 84, that little screw zone would catch up a bit.

Looks 12z Euro-ish. Exception might be some mixing in the middle, but looks like still a solid fetch of moisture going at the end.

We’ve heard for years not to study the NAM at 84...but I’m gonna. Def south, but almost looks like it wants to force that intial heavier snow south, and/or have it fizzle sooner. Im OK with that look at this point - just seems like mixing is the bigger concern than full suppression

The key for that could be that 1034 high. Was slightly south of 0Z as the run progressed

Euro is colder with a more robust strip of 12+ streaking through central Ohio. That was less pronounced at 0z, and basically makes it all the way to Pgh now. i think it’s the result of a slightly further south track of the primary.

A lot could definitely go wrong. Not sure we have an analog with a good storm that cuts that far west, and then hits a brick wall and slides east in time to 1) give us heavy precip and 2) not pull warm air in. That makes it a little more thread of the needle. I will say the nightmare snow hole scenario looks less likely

I would say so!

I seriously considered going to the Poconos (free condo) or Breezewood (close drive) for the 12.16 storm. I mean real close to going. I think I wound up with more snow staying put. So hopefully this comes back to us as well.

Seeing 3” in places like Cannonsburg and Mt Lebanon

There was definitely some model support for a couple inches this morning, but didn’t make it into the forecasts. So in that way, a nice surprise

I keep thinking how many times we have said in the past that we would trade in a ton of nickle and dime snows for a few good thumps a year. Looks like we got our wish :-) While I do prefer thatI am starting to miss snow and our usual cadence of it.

I think that is generally correct. Especially in our area where it seems to underestimate warm air advection. So when that is the driver of snowfall, it’s going to underestimate it. When it leads to mixing issues, it also of course underestimates that. The why’s are above my pay grade. The mesoscale models with smaller grid spacing pick up more local nuances and thus are more accurate in the short team