Burghblizz

Yeah Euro is fine. I don’t think this ever was going to be a 15”+ storm here. The last 4 storms that cracked 15” (93/94/03/10) all had huge closed lows. It’s too progressive. Overall good trends in the last 36 hours overall to get it to something significant. So need to keep that perspective. Still think 6-8” is a good bet. Maybe touching 10” in eastern areas.

Smokes Westmoreland

Easy man...it only shaved a couple inches off and these off hour runs can be lighter. Tracks looked almost identical. Let’s see how things are after tonight. That’s the final model exam.

If I had to give a public forecast, I’d probably say 6-10” west to east across AGC. The only thing concerning me about challenging some of those higher model totals is the progressive nature of this. Relatively quick window to capitalize

Has 12” close to Allegheny/Westmoreland boarder. I’ll take it since that’s almost my backyard! That’s likely to dance around with a rapid refresh model.

I tend to agree. This isn’t like a WTOD where it overwhelms with a strong inland storm. It should flip back even if there is a period of slop.

That banding can be iffy, but definitely can lead to overperforming storms. That 11” we got in March a couple years ago had that.

He has always been a little lazy the further he got from I95. Doesn’t even begin to address the forecast nuances

While you were sleeping, my hard work has produced: -Winter Storm Watches expanded to southwest PA counties -Euro looking more robust at 0Z -NAM going nuts at 6z. Wont even mention those totals -GFS at 6z coming around, creeping 8-12” totals in south and east of the city. Would love to see one more push with that. If we can have SLP track to the Chesapeake and have this close off at 500, it’s legit game on. That would turn WAA snows early on to the more prolonged/heavy CCB.

That was a bigger, more explosive storm. It was much warmer to the east. But the setup is pretty similar. That had a first wave that overperformed as there was supposed to be heavier snow later with the coastal. But the epic snows later really only made to Somerset (3’). Still a foot of snow and a memorable storm

My weenie eyes saw the same thing

It would be nice to verify on higher end of those plumes again. Will be tough to do that back to back

Noticed that as well. Will be interesting if that keeps showing up. NAM might be overly optimistic, but it seems the upper levels as it depicts it supports its track

NAM sometimes a trend, sometimes a tease. And 84 hours is only wed eve. Hope the globals can provide a similar look by tonight.

Agree - as long as it’s a solid foot and not 10 miles away :-) 1.2016 was the worst in recent memory. 5” and 15 miles from me had 15”. But you clear a foot all is good

I feel like Christmas ‘02 would have been as I was there (Unless you mean physical calendar day which I’m not sure)

I remember that TWC map. We had a first wave that overperformed and were sitting on like 8 or 9”. That supposed to be 12+ additional, but the big snows from the coastal cut off around somerset. We wound up with about a foot total where I was. Pretty sure they got 3’ in Somerset

That was so close to being a epic storm. Double digit snows over most of the area, but just missed a widespread 2-3’ (of course that happened anyway 3 months later, and close to that again 13 months later. Good times)

This shortwave energy on the backside of this means business. Nice icing on the cake Nice kickoff to winter. And with a lot of people working from home, this is the most positive I’ve seen the general public about snow in awhile (homeschooled kids not pleased I bet :-))

The cautionary tale will be how demogoguery worked and propaganda sites laundered disinformation. Mostly driven by the need to have an exact answer that doesn’t exist, and not wanting to adjust their own reality. So “they”...whoever “they” is....wanting “control” is an easy false narrative. The reality is more boring - a society trying to figure out the balance of saving lives and keeping livelihoods. (Fortunately, most of us that understand weather modeling also understand how math shows us this is a huge problem when scaled over many encounters. And that reality exists even if things such as death rates are modest) But people who get a high off of having an “alternative viewpoint” get an adrenaline rush. And yes, I know the red herring responses - those have been well developed. But that whole mindset might be the biggest thing that perpetuated this into a long slow burn. That is what history will frown upon

As crazy as the NAM is, it might be at least be worth mentioning that we haven’t officially had more than .1” of snow in May since 1966 (when in snowed 3”). And I think there was a 2” type event a few years earlier. So the bar for “historic” is pretty low this time of year. This looks heavily rate dependent to have a chance for anything

Nice to see that some areas in the southern Metro area will see >20". They deserve it - they get screwed a lot But... With the city generally seeing 4-8", i hope this doesnt blow our "big storm" load where its 5 years before such an opportunity presents itself

Modern day seems healthy for yearly totals (seems like many more years above avg), but rough for big storms. Without looking at the numbers, we have to be up near a 50" average this century

Well...actually... Its more like every 2 years for an 8-12" type storm. Every 5 years is more the 12"-15" storm- not that that makes u feel better. I dont know...top of my head IMBY for 9+... Feb '03 Dec '03 February '10 (2 including 21") March '13 So maybe 5 in 12 years and about 20 5-7" type storms where we couldnt get over the hump. It is what it is - just seems like we are always in a drought That, and the Euro can suck my balls.