Burghblizz

Euro looking close to that same 8-9” type output in the city or just south - but instead of the snow hole over Morgantown, it has a 12” bullseye. And the totals trail off from the city north. This really shows some of the complexity with track, temps, and the dry slot (which could hurt those borderline temps, in addition to less precip. So double whammy where that happens). I think Euro overall is a slightly better look for us since the dry slot seems to be in central WV. So more wiggle room as long as that shear to the NE doesn’t get us

I have a feeling beyond 84, that little screw zone would catch up a bit.

Looks 12z Euro-ish. Exception might be some mixing in the middle, but looks like still a solid fetch of moisture going at the end.

We’ve heard for years not to study the NAM at 84...but I’m gonna. Def south, but almost looks like it wants to force that intial heavier snow south, and/or have it fizzle sooner. Im OK with that look at this point - just seems like mixing is the bigger concern than full suppression

The key for that could be that 1034 high. Was slightly south of 0Z as the run progressed

Euro is colder with a more robust strip of 12+ streaking through central Ohio. That was less pronounced at 0z, and basically makes it all the way to Pgh now. i think it’s the result of a slightly further south track of the primary.

A lot could definitely go wrong. Not sure we have an analog with a good storm that cuts that far west, and then hits a brick wall and slides east in time to 1) give us heavy precip and 2) not pull warm air in. That makes it a little more thread of the needle. I will say the nightmare snow hole scenario looks less likely

I would say so!

I seriously considered going to the Poconos (free condo) or Breezewood (close drive) for the 12.16 storm. I mean real close to going. I think I wound up with more snow staying put. So hopefully this comes back to us as well.

Seeing 3” in places like Cannonsburg and Mt Lebanon

There was definitely some model support for a couple inches this morning, but didn’t make it into the forecasts. So in that way, a nice surprise

I keep thinking how many times we have said in the past that we would trade in a ton of nickle and dime snows for a few good thumps a year. Looks like we got our wish :-) While I do prefer thatI am starting to miss snow and our usual cadence of it.

I think that is generally correct. Especially in our area where it seems to underestimate warm air advection. So when that is the driver of snowfall, it’s going to underestimate it. When it leads to mixing issues, it also of course underestimates that. The why’s are above my pay grade. The mesoscale models with smaller grid spacing pick up more local nuances and thus are more accurate in the short team

Great start to winter! The Euro and NAM were good at showing the possibility of a prolonged period of snow. Got to love closed lows and negatively tilted troughs in these parts. I still saw flakes even this morning. I don’t necessarily consider any of these 3 events overachievers per se. The model support was definitely there for these amounts. It’s just nice to have the digital snow translate to real snow. That’s been a problem the last few years

NAM picked up on the prolonging of the snow into this afternoon. I feel like this is the type of fluffy snow that will add a sneaky inch or two if it continues. Wouldn’t be suprised to see an event total pushing 6” The average yinzer with a ruler probably won’t report that much since it might not add much to the depth as last nights snow settles. But with NWS likely clearing their board every 6 hours, they will report > 6”

Merry Christmas! Looks like officially 4.5”, with 3” after midnight Probably the opposite of the last storm as Moon likely does a little better than city and points east.

Not sure if it was more the flash freeze or a period of freezing rain, but everything was quickly covered in ice. Mod snow/sleet mix right now with a dusting on top of the ice. Quite windy

Intellicast is pretty much weenie radar because its pretty sensitive and makes snow shields look huge - but I find its pretty good in outlining R/S lines

GFS is more progressive than the NAM, but both get to about that 5” to 7” range E to W. NAM has it snowing about 6 hours later into Christmas Day. The upper levels have a closed low with negatively tilted trough. Might be a good sign that this meanders a bit as opposed quickly sliding away.

NAM is maybe a tick west with the heaviest axis, but similar for us to 18z (which was more robust than 12z)

I think he has been doing it that way close to 20 years. The intent is to look at the lines and project based on what lines u are between and/or near. But you are right, those gaps can get pretty tight in some areas, plus he goes from <1 straight to 3 in this case. So if you are 20 miles east of the 3” line, no clue if he is thinking “almost 3” or “under 1”. Then you hit the 6” line 30 miles the other way Plus it doesn’t account for local climo factors. Much better ways to present it these days.

Tolleris is a bit east of most guidance, but he thinks true central has a shot for significant snow

GFS a good 6”-7” as well. Models are advertising a suprisingly (to me) wide swath of decent snows. That would seem to give us a bit more wiggle room

This look screams of “uncertainty”, but I think we would all take it on Christmas morning