Burghblizz

I think part of this is on the General Public... First, model runs that used to be our little secret on weather boards 10 years ago are now blasted everywhere. So they become points of discussion when they show big storms. People seem to understand the nature of thunderstorms and that they can be in the forecast, but hit the next town over. They don’t seem to understand that short distances make a difference with snow. They want a firm forecast. So given that fact, they want a forecast that lacks the nuance that some situations need. This one needed it. We all knew that. It Should have been communicated that there was high potential for far different sensible weather with a small shift. I think the NWS discussions did that. But not many read those. Ideally that is communicated and people understand that there are sometimes differences in confidence. So that comes to your point....it those small shifts that make dramatic differences happen, then by all means change the forecast. Don’t step it down gradually. But it really starts with a consumer that understands the situation, and that just isn’t the case. Maybe that becomes less of a factor of models get better. On one hand, it’s incredible that we know there was a big storm coming in the eastern US a week ago. On the other hand, it’s a damn shame they were this bad in the short term.

I think they are expecting a decent back end thump. That said....at some point it becomes a PR play, and stepping down totals plays better than wiping them completely out.

Euro owes us a lot of snow. Dr. No my ass. In the past it would be the model that would sniff out borderline temps that would go wrong. Usually not a bad sign when it’s on your side

A lot of your perception is off because parts of I95 have had an historic run (not sustainable), and nobody pays attention to areas to the Southwest. NE is NE...they have no right to complain ever The long term is a little different. I wouldn’t pack your bags to Cincinnati, Indianapolis, or DC to find more snow or big storm frequency over long term. But there IS a complaint thread that is awesome to debate that. Agree that this storm is frustrating and sucks since it was on the radar so long

Yeah, but we average ~40 days of accumulating snow per year, which is the 3rd most behind only Cleveland and Buffalo among major US cities. (And I think this is a little better place to live for a lot of reasons) So some others would laugh at your relentless complaining — esp those that average half as much snow and still get big storm droughts. All relative.

Wright Weather....That was even Before Easterns time.

My recollection of those mornings here was a little different. We had -22 air temps but -60 chill factors. So not super calm in Pgh

My anti-tongue hope hinges on two things: As modeled, this not a primary through Ohio with redevelopment. The WTOD dipiction is usually because places to the east experience CADDing and places to the north are far enough out of harms way before a secondary storm takes over. If this is seriously going to pass to the SE by way of southern WV, then I think even areas that get more warm push will flip back. The track is the “big IF” to me. Second is the time of year. It’s climatology the coldest. That gives a little more hope.

I always find this a fun and informative page. Probably not a lot that we don’t already know this time: Navigate to the probabilistic tab https://www.weather.gov/pbz/winter

And I believe it given the track

NAM is showing similar amounts to what it has been (at least non Kuchera) but the path there looks MUCH more believable with this run

Feb ‘07 had a storm that was like 7” and a pile of sleet. It was a pain, but not horrible in terms of witnessing a decent “event”. Obviously though, there were thoughts of what could have been. If I recall correctly, it was well forecasted so not like forecasted totals got ripped in half.

The 0Z NAM is the worst looking way to get to 12-14” ever. Somehow does, but likely a lot of sleet and slop in reality. Definitely don’t like it’s look

GFS looks to be generally snow, just more modest totals. Might be a scenario where just west of the city does better

Only about 24 more GFS runs to go! (it’s way far out to be doing this, but I’m intrigued that it’s on multiple models)

Looking like 1994 type cold after the next storm. Likely will moderate, but damn it looks cold at the end of the month.

Most places in Allegheny County surpasses that already. Spotter reports averaging around 1.5”. if some of those heavier returns in Ohio can hold together, still a chance for a decent little event.

Out in the Greensburg area tonight and about an 1” since about 4:00. There is a ton of precip to the SW, so I’m interested to see how things hold together.

Happy 25th anniversary!

GFS looking interesting by around Thursday....the ever elusive Piedmont runner.

Great info....wish some of that would have translated into a big snowfall year.

Wow - Jeff V let go from KDKA. Obviously, he was not kind to weenies and hobbyists, but the general public seemed to like him

Interesting that they feel there is some upside to early tommorow as well. I was thinking it’s the period slightly beyond that (thurs night) that looked a little better.

12Z GFS looks a touch snowier in western Pa for overnight Thurs

Mostly from one storm. A retrograding BOMB up the spine of the apps and through Ohio....but so potent that there were single digit temps with southerly winds.