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Burghblizz

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Everything posted by Burghblizz

  1. Burghblizz
    I’m not sure places north and west did that great, even into western Ohio and New York State. Seems like a lot of low ratios and quick moving. I didn’t really look until now, but wanted to see what we missed out on.
  2. Burghblizz
    Right - I like the old “significant accumulation possible” as an alert. But I’d wait for actual totals. Or you pop up a couple scenarios.
  3. Burghblizz
    Lot of moisture streaming up though, and better HP placement. I don’t think this has the 10” potential the last one did, it I’d rather shovel 5” of snow than 10” of potential
  4. Burghblizz
    Skating rink right now, with a lot of precip to go. At least it’s pretty fast moving. We haven’t had a true ice storm in awhile - usually pretty transient on the way to rain. But this looks like it could get rough. I used to like them as a kid because they “felt” like a snowstorm. You got your NWS headlines and off school.
  5. Burghblizz
    It’s Amazing our propensity for night snows
  6. Burghblizz
    Lol - don’t start. I already found myself noticing HRRR soundings holding on to snow a little longer. Maybe we can squeeze out a quick second thump before the ice
  7. Burghblizz
    Thumpin hard right now. I went outside. Need to enjoy every flake for the time spent - lol
  8. Burghblizz
    Icy as hell out again. Not sure if there was more freezing drizzle overnight, or this first batch of snow started as some
  9. Burghblizz
    It’s been a fun year overall, despite this recent mess. Still think this winter has something more in store
  10. Burghblizz
    It does show some blocking and a decent (6”+) hit of snow. Also shows it retrograding through Ohio, and then creating a mess. I’m going to really try not to model watch again until Wednesday
  11. Burghblizz
    At least we know 200 mile NW jogs are possible in 24 hours for future reference (when needed) This is nuts. Acodcotally you sometimes see a large late shift back SE to buck the trend but this just didn’t quit. I’m curious to see how it plays out. Maybe we can get a nice front batch out of this, and more sleet to hold on to snowpack.
  12. Burghblizz
    Germans keeping it mostly clean in AGC (although I guess they don’t believe in other P types)
  13. Burghblizz
    Were they there in 2010? Think that’s when Dallas scored a foot. That likely will never be matched there.
  14. Burghblizz
    Just saying it’s a mesoscale model that is usually over amped with a west bias outside of 36 hours. If the globals all trend that way tonight, then I’ll be more worried
  15. Burghblizz
    You know how sometimes the NAM reels us in when we are on the western fringe? This is that run for Illinois. I doubt other guidance follows. And when it’s right or “on to something” outside 36 hours, it’s usually with rapidly deepening systems
  16. Burghblizz
    I was about to post the same “probably too early” look at it as well. It’s showing that first wave to be pretty robust. 5” by noon Monday would be off and running
  17. Burghblizz
    I’m less concerned about total output at this point and more concerned with sliding that boundary to the SE. Keep some wiggle room
  18. Burghblizz
    King looking a bit colder at 12z
  19. Burghblizz
    Guess you have to be on a boat to get big snows from the Canadian. But it’s definitely a colder/more east solution. Doesn’t appear to flirt with the mixing as much
  20. Burghblizz
    Anecdotal, but it historically sniffs out storms that try to cut west when they are close. I’ll start feeling real good if it’s next few runs look like NAM/GFS
  21. Burghblizz
    0z NAM looking colder. Looking more like GFS. Still snowing at 84. It’s tight, but basically puts a diagonal line through the state from SW to NE. Northern side of the line looking good.
  22. Burghblizz
    Ukmet is where it’s at
  23. Burghblizz
    Time to break out the weenie adage that the models don’t handle snowpack well, and the actual temps and track will be more suppressed
  24. Burghblizz
    Think there is a good bit of sleet in there as depicted by TT. (which I could live with with a nice snow pack and significant snow) Otherwise that Heavy Snow/mix line is tight
  25. Burghblizz
    Yeah, many times we are rooting for it to go negative as it helps to capture and keep a coastal storm tight to the coast or on the Piedmont. Rooting more progressive here at least until it gets past this point as depicted on the NAM. Taken literally, I think we would like hour 87.
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