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Burghblizz

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Everything posted by Burghblizz

  1. Burghblizz
    Agree. He provided some great analysis. KPITsnow provided some comedy
  2. Burghblizz
    I just opened my phone at 3:00 out of habit to get ready for the NAM
  3. Burghblizz
    Highest total i saw in the Allegheny County was 14” in Wexford. That backend held on for awhile north of the city. It looks like several county reports after midnight were 10” to 12”. NWS reported 9.4” officially. Local-ish winners seem to be Indiana county. Seeing 15” to 17”
  4. Burghblizz
    For all our model drama over the last 36 hours, this performed squarely within the blend of the models. So while it might be a slight overperformer to most of the forecasts, there was plenty of model guidance to suggest a widespread 8”-12” in AGC The bust potential was the relatively progressive setup and the uncertainty around the banding. So I would have forecasted slightly less as well, but those factors worked enough in our favor. Had a solid 12 hours of snow, and some of those bands were intense!
  5. Burghblizz
    NWS reported 1.6” last hour with 6.6” official so far
  6. Burghblizz
    Weenie post: I looked at the 18Z NAM. Noticed colder 850 temps than depicted before. Could some of the late storm ratios be better? (like i said....bit of a weenie post)
  7. Burghblizz
    Pittsburgh: ~3.5” after a great band
  8. Burghblizz
    This band was thumping! Hardest synoptic snow I’ve seen in awhile
  9. Burghblizz
    Those 35/40 DBZs have arrived and it’s ALL Snow
  10. Burghblizz
    Mailman probably a good person to stand guard for that
  11. Burghblizz
    Agree - I think that 11” in March a couple years ago was mostly daytime, or at least kept going into the next day. But most of the more significant snows the last 10 years seem to be mostly at night.
  12. Burghblizz
    Ripping out here already. Hopefully means more expansive and not just “early”
  13. Burghblizz
    With coastal development in the Carolinas as opposed to further north, I don’t think the tongue makes it accross the M/D line. So I say let’s flirt with It and bring in more WAA snows
  14. Burghblizz
    Reminder: snow is awesome. Time to get out of the models and outside!
  15. Burghblizz
    NAM is interesting because it closes off, and then has SLP retrograde a bit. Not sure that has been depicted yet. It’s probably a little too late for that to have a meaningful impact as it had already begun to slide east and offshore. If it would have done that at the Chesapeake, then it could really mean something. Still all a computers imagination, so we’ll see what happens!
  16. Burghblizz
    Yeah Euro is fine. I don’t think this ever was going to be a 15”+ storm here. The last 4 storms that cracked 15” (93/94/03/10) all had huge closed lows. It’s too progressive. Overall good trends in the last 36 hours overall to get it to something significant. So need to keep that perspective. Still think 6-8” is a good bet. Maybe touching 10” in eastern areas.
  17. Burghblizz
    Smokes Westmoreland
  18. Burghblizz
    Easy man...it only shaved a couple inches off and these off hour runs can be lighter. Tracks looked almost identical. Let’s see how things are after tonight. That’s the final model exam.
  19. Burghblizz
    If I had to give a public forecast, I’d probably say 6-10” west to east across AGC. The only thing concerning me about challenging some of those higher model totals is the progressive nature of this. Relatively quick window to capitalize
  20. Burghblizz
    Has 12” close to Allegheny/Westmoreland boarder. I’ll take it since that’s almost my backyard! That’s likely to dance around with a rapid refresh model.
  21. Burghblizz
    I tend to agree. This isn’t like a WTOD where it overwhelms with a strong inland storm. It should flip back even if there is a period of slop.
  22. Burghblizz
    That banding can be iffy, but definitely can lead to overperforming storms. That 11” we got in March a couple years ago had that.
  23. Burghblizz
    He has always been a little lazy the further he got from I95. Doesn’t even begin to address the forecast nuances
  24. Burghblizz
    While you were sleeping, my hard work has produced: -Winter Storm Watches expanded to southwest PA counties -Euro looking more robust at 0Z -NAM going nuts at 6z. Wont even mention those totals -GFS at 6z coming around, creeping 8-12” totals in south and east of the city. Would love to see one more push with that. If we can have SLP track to the Chesapeake and have this close off at 500, it’s legit game on. That would turn WAA snows early on to the more prolonged/heavy CCB.
  25. Burghblizz
    That was a bigger, more explosive storm. It was much warmer to the east. But the setup is pretty similar. That had a first wave that overperformed as there was supposed to be heavier snow later with the coastal. But the epic snows later really only made to Somerset (3’). Still a foot of snow and a memorable storm
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