Burghblizz

Had a Virga storm for awhile but it’s thumping now.

18Z NAM looks largely the same - maybe a tick stronger and cooler. Extreme SW PA does a little better this run. Maybe that will be enough to expand the adv.

Was about to claim victory for this since it popped up for me - but doesn’t look like they have one for AGC yet

Not even sure why I’m looking at this - but 12Z Euro takes next weekends monster storm and eliminates the severe cutting. Takes a primary into Ky/southern Oh, and then pops a secondary over DC. That look never seems to hold, but something to watch.

I’d go advisory 2”-5”. Bottom and top end are two different impacts, but you can package it into one forecast that makes you look good

Thanks! I’ve been holding out for the same reason.

They still could be right - but I think somewhere in the middle…. 2-4” from NW to SE is becoming a good bet. And like someone said - I’m also a big fan of rates (especially in the daytime). I’d be happy to get a couple hours of 1”+ in the middle of the day.

I think weather karma owes us a last minute NW tick for all the last minute NW ticks that provided slop.

With a gulf system that is also a quick hitter, I have a feeling the NAM is going to have a pretty good spread (higher) compared to other models. I’d say let’s not dream too much of that so we aren’t disappointed by what looks like could be a nice moderate snowfall.

Storm + game will be a fun day. The KC playoff loss in ‘21 was during a storm. (the 9” storm that isn’t remembered too fondly since it came in two parts, and a few areas fell short) Hoping this sets up to be a more positive day!

Nice to not just be relying on one model. NAM coming into range will be interesting. (If it sucks, we can say throw it aht it’s just the 84 hr NAM. If it’s good, it’s one more on board )

They always overdo route 119 from Uniontown to near Latrobe. I can say with almost 100% certainty it isn’t snowing 4” in Uniontown. It might 10 miles away and 800’ higher - but it’s just not happening where the population centers are.

Interesting that they are trying to validate official readings through a car thermometer (I feel like mine always reads warm) And wow as far as 2023 total snowfall. That’s a 100 year type anomaly on the low side. And We very well could get shut out the rest of the way.

Hopefully we start seeing at least a little digital snow to make things interesting. Maybe a long shot on Sunday.

Clock’s officially ticking. Let’s go!

Was driving on the parkway north between Wexford and Warrendale and it was POUNDING. Roads mostly just wet, but visibility was briefly near zero

I normally am not watching models this time of year. But I had some outside plans this evening and so have been paying attention. Not sure I have ever seen model agreement (and a forecast tied to it) that busted this bad. Today was pegged to be dry for the last 5 days, and only last night did I see mention of a stray shower. Models (including short term) were bone dry until after dark. I wouldn’t be suprised if I’ve seen 1” of rain already. Would love to see that happen in the winter! Would also be interesting to see why it was handled so poorly. Looks like these shortwaves diving down were stronger than progged

This one entering western AGC means business - but likely moving through quickly. Ground whitened in about 10 min with basically wind driven snow grains. Edit: now wind driven fatties. Edit^2: hasn’t stopped but sun has emerged melting most of what has fallen

Fairly heavy snow right now. Enjoying every flake. Reestablishing my half inch from before. edit: maybe an actual whole inch in progress. It’s thumpin. edit (2) - jinxed it…fizzled out after about .5”

Was pushing a sold half inch early this morning, but going backwards now with more daylight.

I really thought there would be a period at some point in Feb/March where we ran into 8”-10” over the course of 2 weeks. And some people here would actually be more irritated because it padded the stats without a big storm. Crazy that it doesn’t look like we will even get that.

Lol - those were called forecasts.

Interesting stuff. I kind of assumed everything pre-1952 was AGC. I bet the 11.1950 storm was closer to 40” at the current location, but that’s lost to history. Sticking a ruler in the ground once a day downtown is going to give you a much different total than religiously clearing your snowboard at the airport. This year’s 14.5” probably aligns well with a single digit year pre 1952. Aren’t many that have been leaner when looked in that context. I *do* think the current location better represents where the population actually is. Of the metro areas ~2M people, I’d say 75% of those live above 1000’. Would pretty severely understate things if someone was out in point state park measuring snow.

Was out near Live Casino tonight and it was windy as hell. LBE gusted to 60 and I’m pretty sure I felt similar gusts.

Probably less dilligent about it. Don’t think they were out systematically measuring every .5” that fell before it melted. You see some old lean winters where you figure that had to be part of it.