Burghblizz

Models are flip flopping, but even the western solutions don’t really get much to western Maryland. So wouldn’t see anything meaningful yet on timing or of it’s even a factor. Edit: Actually Euro last night did get very heavy snow there, with it wrapping up by midday Sunday. But I think it’s still too early to really know.

This presentation tells the story a little better than that other one they had

The beauty of this last week was that almost all guidance was in our favor. Hard to find even ensemble members that weren’t great. I have a feeling this week might be the opposite - we’ll have a model or too that reels us in, but it might be a longshot at this point.

Im in the withdrawal phase right now, so i would take it! And snow on snow makes for great scenes. But I get your point. Back to normal life for awhile then hopefully get something big to track again.

I didn’t realize that. But still, they have to be very close, and it’s not like there was any sleet there.

I saw lots of 12’s and 13’s around the city but nothing more - clearly someone stuck their yardstick in a drift, lol. Years ago my house had a north facing yard in a fairly dense neighborhood. It seemed to have more snow collected during windy events. So perhaps that could be a factor.

Some people on X were busting their balls over that. I’m about 25 miles northeast of the airport, and it was certainly what I would call powdery snow during that time.

He has good analysis. Like our own personal Dr. No that keeps us grounded on what may actually happen.

I have a few candidates, but 2016 might be my least favorite storm ever. I probably put 15 hours into that over the course of a few days. The models were just on point as far as cutting the big totals off right near me. I had 5”. Twenty miles down the road had 10”. Thirty miles down the road had 15”. Fifty miles had 20” (you get the picture) The good news - several days to try to reel it in. And honestly, even a moderate snowfall with a deep snowpack wouldn’t be the worst thing.

I was looking at some other reports this morning and saw a lot of reports with a pretty wide spread in the same areas. I think the wind was a factor, and a lot people probably weren’t measuring in multiple spots. But just a great storm overall. I don’t want to dwell on that too much!

This methodology almost looks like they are taking the highest report in a cluster and then using that. While I think “early” reports should be thrown out, later reports with lower totals shouldn’t be.

I do agree - just thought you were trolling a bit on the calendar day stuff. But moving past that… You aren’t wrong for tracking that. I like to see high official measurements too because it helps storms be remembered. But even though the past few winters sucked, I actually think we are in a decent “significant storm” period over the past several years: 3.2018, 12.2020 and today were all storms where the general area had a foot-type storm in a lot of places. And today had a lot of spots had considerably more. You shift totals 25 miles south today we are flirting with a top 10 storm. So the actual weather for those types of storms hasn’t been too bad versus what you may expect per climo - it’s just been a little unlucky with the official measurement.

Allegheny county totals: Hampton Township 14.0 433 PM 1/25 Public 1 SE West View 14.0 730 PM 1/25 Public Bradfordwoods 14.0 350 PM 1/25 Public 1 SW Bethel Park 14.0 611 PM 1/25 Public 2 NW Ross Township 14.0 442 PM 1/25 Public Bridgeville 13.8 540 PM 1/25 Public 1 E Pittsburgh 13.8 750 PM 1/25 Public 2 NE Shaler Township 13.5 402 PM 1/25 Public 2 SW West Elizabeth 13.5 536 PM 1/25 Public 3 NNW Hampton Townsh 13.0 330 PM 1/25 Still snowing 1 N Chalfant 13.0 203 PM 1/25 Public 1 SE Glenfield 13.0 317 PM 1/25 Public 2 W Plum 12.5 535 PM 1/25 Public 1 E Crafton 12.3 809 PM 1/25 Public Stowe Township 12.1 455 PM 1/25 Still snowing 1 E Aspinwall 12.0 530 PM 1/25 Public 1 S Bethel Park 12.0 301 PM 1/25 Public Ross Township 12.0 315 PM 1/25 Public 2 W Pittsburgh 12.0 712 PM 1/25 Still snowing. 1 SW Whitehall 12.0 819 PM 1/25 Public Carnegie 12.0 700 PM 1/25 Still snowing. 2 W Tarentum 12.0 819 PM 1/25 Public 2 NNW Homestead 12.0 336 PM 1/25 Amateur Radio 1 N Ben Avon Heights 11.8 541 PM 1/25 Public 1 S Hampton Township 11.5 522 PM 1/25 Public 1 N Bradfordwoods 11.5 130 PM 1/25 Amateur Radio 2 E Pittsburgh 11.5 752 PM 1/25 Public Upper Saint Clair 11.5 517 PM 1/25 Public West View 11.3 453 PM 1/25 Public Edgewood 11.0 711 PM 1/25 Still snowing. 2 E Wexford 11.0 625 PM 1/25 Public Etna 11.0 445 PM 1/25 Public Glassport 11.0 220 PM 1/25 Public Harrison Township 11.0 820 PM 1/25 Public 1 SW Coraopolis 11.0 736 PM 1/25 Public

Seems well forecasted overall. I feel like a lot of the forecast accumulation maps had a similar look.

You deserve it. Great work during this tracking

I get it, and me too - because it memorializes the storm a little better. And that makes sense because you are talking about storms and not snow that has to happen within a calendar day. But him making it sound it’s some 30 year streak is silly, just because snow on certain other storms fell over two calendar days.

There are places 20 miles north of the airport in Beaver county that got 18”. If a band or two shifted, it doesn’t change what the storm was.

Just hit 15” in Cranberry. Outside of Beaver county, might have been in the best spot in the area for this

This new batch has big fluffy flakes. Hopefully a nice icing

Gfs was hinting at that

There will be 18” reports in Beaver and Butler county and probably 15” reports in Northern Allegheny. This didn’t underperform, it’s just the sweet spot was where the ratios were a little better. Think most of AGC will be over 10” by the time this final batch swings through. (I mean, if the general forecast was 9-14”, that’s pretty good)

Will be fun to see what happens with this last leg. Hopefully that hole closes in and those heavier returns get here. Think of it as it’s own 2-4” storm. Let’s see if we can maximize it.

Not doubting that there is 14” in Monesson or 15” in Beaver County. But we do see some decent spreads and I’m not sure if it’s the banding, or people measuring where wind is depositing more - lol. i have an easy 15” on my north facing back deck, but on average it’s more like 12-12.5” out in the yard.

Solid foot here in Cranberry. Saw a 15” report in Beaver county.

Trying use a “calendar day” and then assigning a frequency of something happening doesn’t really matter to me. Who cares if snow started at 6:00 PM one day and ended at noon the next? Of course it’s going to make the frequency of things look to be less if it’s a “requirement” to all happen in one calendar day. So that’s said - when we crack 12” within this “calendar day”, it’s a cool little tidbit. But that’s it. But anything that matters in terms of trying to determine how often something happens or where it stacks up historically needs to be event based.